航迹误差对无人机坠地伤人风险评估的影响

doi:10.16265/j.cnki.issn 1003-3033.2021.02.015

中国安全科学学报 ›› 2021, Vol. 31 ›› Issue (2): 106-111.doi: 10.16265/j.cnki.issn 1003-3033.2021.02.015

航迹误差对无人机坠地伤人风险评估的影响

韩鹏讲师, 张冰玉讲师

中国民航大学空中交通管理学院,天津 300300

收稿日期:2020-11-06 修回日期:2021-01-15 出版日期:2021-02-28 发布日期:2021-08-18
作者简介:韩鹏 (1991—),男,山东济宁人,博士,讲师,主要从事空中交通管理、无人机安全风险评估方面的工作。E-mail:p_han@cauc.edu.cn。
基金资助:
天津市教委科研计划项目(2019KJ128)。

Effect of track error on safety risk assessment of UAV ground impact

HAN Peng, ZHANG Bingyu

School of Air Traffic Management, Civil Aviation University of China, Tianjin 300300, China

Received:2020-11-06 Revised:2021-01-15 Online:2021-02-28 Published:2021-08-18

摘要/Abstract

摘要： 为提高无人机(UAV)安全风险评估的精确性和置信度,在坠地安全风险评估过程中,考虑航迹误差导致的事故瞬间UAV位置和高度的不确定性,及其对坠地撞击点和撞击速度的影响,分析UAV坠地的水平位置误差和高度误差分布特征,确定UAV失效瞬间位置和高度,建立坠地撞击点预测模型,计算其坠地撞击速度,并以M210-RTK型UAV为例,分析不同航迹误差对坠地时间、地面撞击点位置和坠地动能的影响。结果表明:航迹误差作用下,坠地撞击点分布遵循正态分布特征;随着飞行高度的增加,航迹误差对坠地位置的影响逐渐下降,高度误差对坠地动能的影响呈先增后减的趋势。

关键词: 航迹误差, 无人机(UAV), 坠地伤人, 风险评估, 撞击动能

Abstract: In order to improve accuracy and credibility of UAV safety risk evaluation, uncertainties of instant UAV position and altitude at the moment of accident caused by track error and its influence on impact point and speed were considered in risk assessment of ground impact. Distribution rules of horizontal position error and height error were analyzed, and location and height of UAV failure moment were determined. Then,a prediction model of impact point was established and impact velocity was calculated. Finally, with UAV of M210-RTK type selected as research object, effects of different track errors on impact time, position of impact point and impact kinetic energy were obtained. The results show that distribution of impact points, under influence of track error, still obeys normal distribution. With increase of flight altitude, track error's influence on ground impact position decreases gradually while that of altitude error on ground impact kinetic energy increases first and then decreases.

Key words: track error, unmanned aerial vehicle (UAV), ground impact, risk assessment, impact energy

中图分类号:

X949

韩鹏, 张冰玉. 航迹误差对无人机坠地伤人风险评估的影响[J]. 中国安全科学学报, 2021, 31(2): 106-111.

HAN Peng, ZHANG Bingyu. Effect of track error on safety risk assessment of UAV ground impact[J]. China Safety Science Journal, 2021, 31(2): 106-111.

参考文献

[1] 王红勇,温瑞英.基于复杂网络的空中交通态势风险评估方法[J].中国安全科学学报,2018,28(5): 172-178.
WANG Hongyong, WEN Ruiying. Research on assessment of risk in air traffic situation based on complex network[J]. China Safety Science Journal, 2018,28(5): 172-178.
[2] 韩鹏,赵嶷飞.基于飞行环境建模的UAV地面撞击风险研究[J].中国安全科学学报,2020,30(1): 142-147.
HAN Peng, ZHAO Yifei. Study on ground impact risk of UAV based on flight environment[J]. China Safety Science Journal,2020,30(1): 142-147.
[3] 全权,李刚,柏艺琴,等.低空无人机交通管理概览与建议[J].航空学报,2020,41(1): 6-34.
QUAN Quan, LI Gang, BAI Yiqin, et al. Low altitude UAV traffic management: an introductory overview and proposal[J]. Acta Aeronautica et Astronautica Sinica,2020,41(1): 6-34.
[4] WEIBEL R E, HANSMAN R J. Safety considerations for operation of unmanned aerial vehicles in the national airspace system[R]. MIT International Center for Air Transportation, 2005.
[5] CLOTHIER R A. Decision support for the safe design and operation of unmanned aircraft systems[R]. Queensland University of Technology, 2012.
[6] WU P P, CLOTHIER R A. The development of ground impact models for the analysis of the risks associated with unmanned aircraft operations over inhabited areas[C].11th Probabilistic Safety Assessment and Management Conference (PSAM11) and the Annual European Safety and Reliability Conference (ESREL 2012), 2012: 1-15.
[7] CLOTHIER R A, PALMER J L, WALKER R A, et al. Definition of an airworthiness certification framework for civil unmanned aircraft systems[J]. Safety Science, 2011, 49(6): 871-885.
[8] FORD A T, MCENTEE K J. Assessment of the risk to ground population due to an unmanned aircraft in-flight failure[C].10th AIAA Aviation Technology, Integration and Operations (ATIO) Conference, 2010: 1-12.
[9] BURKE D A, HALL C, COOK S P. System-level airworthiness tool[J]. Aircraft, 2011,48 (3): 777-785.
[10] HALL C. Application of the system level airworthiness tool to the development of small electric powered UAS[C].12th AIAA Aviation Technology, Integration, and Operations (ATIO) Conference and 14th AIAA/ISSMO Multidisciplinary Analysis and Optimization Conference,2012: 5 600-5 608.
[11] KING D W, BERTAPELLE A, MOSES C. UAV failure rate criteria for equivalent level of safety[R]. International Helicopter Safety Symposium, 2005.
[12] LUM C W, WAGGONER B. A risk-based paradigm and model for unmanned aerial systems in the national airspace[C]. Proc. AIAA Infotech Aerospace 2011 Conference, 2011: 1-31.
[13] AVANZINI G, MARTINEZ, DAVID S. Risk assessment in mission planning of uninhabited aerial vehicles[C]. Proceedings of the Institution of Mechanical Engineers Part G Journal of Aerospace Engineering, 2019: 1-20.
[14] ANDERS L, SCHIOLER H. Ground impact probability distribution for small unmanned aircraft in ballistic descent[C].Proceedings of International Conference on Unmanned Aircraft Systems, 2020,9: 1-16.
[15] 赵嶷飞,徐永祥,王红勇.基于航迹误差的空中交通冲突风险计算方法研究[J].安全与环境学报,2016,16(3): 16-19.
ZHAO Yifei, XU Yongxiang, WANG Hongyong. On the air traffic conflict risk calculation method based on the track deviation study[J]. Journal of Safety and Environment,2016,16(3): 16-19.

航迹误差对无人机坠地伤人风险评估的影响

Effect of track error on safety risk assessment of UAV ground impact

PDF

可视化

摘要/Abstract

引用本文

使用本文

参考文献

相关文章 15

编辑推荐

Metrics

本文评价

[1]	刘嘉豪, 余杨, 张振兴, 余建星, 王巍巍, 傅一钦. 二维云模型和贝叶斯网络的立管风险评估方法[J]. 中国安全科学学报, 2022, 32(5): 147-154.
[2]	辛保泉, 喻健良, 党文义, 白永忠, 于安峰. 定量风险评估视域下的多组分混合物危险特性[J]. 中国安全科学学报, 2022, 32(4): 80-85.
[3]	卢颖, 赵志攀, 姜学鹏, 吴锦东, 范小鹏. 大数据视域下体育场馆动态火灾风险指标研究[J]. 中国安全科学学报, 2022, 32(4): 155-162.
[4]	黄杰, 张显峰. 以南疆为例的区域暴恐袭击风险评估^*[J]. 中国安全科学学报, 2022, 32(2): 192-199.
[5]	张鸽. 基于累积接尘量的尘肺病风险评估方法^*[J]. 中国安全科学学报, 2022, 32(2): 200-206.
[6]	韩鹏, 王军, 王启, 赵嶷飞. 基于飞行剖面的航空器试飞活动空管风险研究^*[J]. 中国安全科学学报, 2022, 32(1): 149-156.
[7]	刘继川, 桂蕾. 城市公共安全风险评估与控制对策研究:以武汉市为例^*[J]. 中国安全科学学报, 2022, 32(1): 164-171.
[8]	任新惠, 程彩霞. 城市运行无人机第三方风险模型构建及应用^*[J]. 中国安全科学学报, 2021, 31(9): 15-20.
[9]	刘聪, 魏志强, 韩红蓉, 单泽众. 侧风作用下无人机旋翼悬停状态气动响应分析^*[J]. 中国安全科学学报, 2021, 31(9): 106-112.
[10]	辛保泉, 党文义, 喻健良, 王溪舸, 闫兴清, 卢卫. 石化过程蒸气云爆炸抗爆设防荷载定量评估方法^*[J]. 中国安全科学学报, 2021, 31(9): 113-118.
[11]	安宇, 李子琪, 王袆, 郭子萌, 张姜博南. 基于FBN的高校实验室不安全行为风险评估^*[J]. 中国安全科学学报, 2021, 31(5): 160-167.
[12]	马润, 仇维斌 , 秦云, 欧红香. 模糊区间TOPSIS动车组塞拉门故障风险评估[J]. 中国安全科学学报, 2021, 31(4): 177-183.
[13]	赵冬月, 陈长坤, 易亮. 灾害演化网络时序性风险评估模型[J]. 中国安全科学学报, 2021, 31(3): 171-177.
[14]	李亮, 刘小勇, 徐坚强, 李念思, 王静舞, 肖峻峰. 火场环境下无人机热损伤试验研究[J]. 中国安全科学学报, 2021, 31(2): 82-88.
[15]	鲁锦涛, 任利成, 戎丹, 郭昕曜. 基于灰色-物元模型的煤矿瓦斯爆炸风险评估[J]. 中国安全科学学报, 2021, 31(2): 99-105.