基于SD的HEP仿真建模分析

doi:10.16265/j.cnki.issn1003-3033.2019.03.015

中国安全科学学报 ›› 2019, Vol. 29 ›› Issue (3): 89-94.doi: 10.16265/j.cnki.issn1003-3033.2019.03.015

基于SD的HEP仿真建模分析

张亚, 张明广教授, 钱城江, 赵瑶

南京工业大学安全科学与工程学院,江苏南京 210009

收稿日期:2018-12-30 修回日期:2019-02-20 发布日期:2020-11-26
作者简介:张亚 (1992—),男,江苏宿迁人,硕士研究生,主要研究方向为化工园区风险认知及应急决策。E-mail:13770636393@163.com。
基金资助:
国家重点研发计划项目(2016YFC0800100);2016年度高校“青蓝工程”项目。

Simulation modeling analysis of human error probability based on system dynamics

ZHANG Ya, ZHANG Mingguang, QIAN Chengjiang, ZHAO Yao

College of Safety Science and Engineering,Nanjing University of Technology, Nanjing Jiangsu 210009,China

Received:2018-12-30 Revised:2019-02-20 Published:2020-11-26

摘要/Abstract

摘要： 为深入研究石化企业员工面对突发事故时人因失误概率(HEP)的变化情况,基于系统动力学(SD)理论和方法,构建事故下企业员工HEP的因果图和系统图,并运用Vensim软件进行动态模拟,定量分析各因素对企业员工HEP影响的动态演化过程。结果表明:HEP曲线变化以 35 h 为截止点被划分为2个特征不同的阶段,截止点之前及之后的主要影响因素分别是风险认知和个人安全承诺,调整HEP影响因素的人因误差效应指数能改变HEP的演化趋势。

关键词: 突发事故, 系统动力学(SD), 人因失误概率(HEP), 人因可靠性分析(HRA), 仿真模拟

Abstract: In order to deeply study the changes in HEP of petrochemical employees in the face of accidents, based on SD theory and method, a causal map and a system map were drawn for enterprise employees HEP under accidents. Dynamic simulations were performed by using Vensim software to quantitatively analyze the dynamic evolution process of the influence of various factors on corporate employees' HEP. The results show that the change in HEP curve is divided into two different stages with 35 h as the cut-off point, that the main influencing factors before and after the cut-off point are risk cognition and personal safety commitment, and that the trend in the evolution of HEP can be changed by controlling the changes in different HEP influencing factors.

Key words: accident, system dynamics(SD), human error probability(HEP), human reliability analysis(HRA), simulation

中图分类号:

X937

张亚, 张明广, 钱城江, 赵瑶. 基于SD的HEP仿真建模分析[J]. 中国安全科学学报, 2019, 29(3): 89-94.

ZHANG Ya, ZHANG Mingguang, QIAN Chengjiang, ZHAO Yao. Simulation modeling analysis of human error probability based on system dynamics[J]. China Safety Science Journal, 2019, 29(3): 89-94.

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基于SD的HEP仿真建模分析

Simulation modeling analysis of human error probability based on system dynamics

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