System dynamics model for electric construction project risk management

doi:10.16265/j.cnki.issn1003-3033.2017.10.023

Abstract

Abstract: In order to effectively reduce hidden dangers with electric construction projects and improve system safety, the paper was aimed at applying the SD method to risk management of electric construction projects. First of all, from the perspective of safety benefit, the total safety system of electric construction project was divided into five subsystems relating to human behavior, equipment and facilities, safety input, safety management and environment, factors affecting subsytems' safety were identified, an SD model was built for risk factors in electric construction projects, and effective risk factors control methods were explored. Then, Vensim_PLE software was applied to simulate initial data on a certain SINOPEC electric construction project in 2017, AHP was used to optimize the safety input scheme. The results show that the safety benefit of safety input has hysteresis, reasonable proportions of safety investment can improve project safety benefit, and that scientific coordination of project engineering quantities, the number of staff and safety input can effectively reduce accident probability and improve production efficiency.

Key words: electriccontruction project, risk management, system dynamics(SD), analytic hierarchy process(AHP), production efficiency

CLC Number:

X923

GAO Chongyang, SHAO Hui, BI Haipu, ZHANG Zhipeng, SONG Xingshuai. System dynamics model for electric construction project risk management[J]. China Safety Science Journal, 2017, 27(10): 137-143.

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