Optimizing layout of emergency shelters in rural areas based on optimal supply-demand allocation: a case study of Xicun town, Jiaozuo city

doi:10.16265/j.cnki.issn1003-3033.2025.10.0082

Abstract

Abstract:

In order to enhance emergency response capabilities and the service efficiency of shelter systems in rural areas, this study adopted an optimal supply-demand allocation model integrated with Geographic Information System (GIS) software (ArcGIS) to evaluate the accessibility of village-level emergency shelters and township-level short-term shelters in northern Henan province. Key factors influencing shelter site selection were identified to construct a spatial suitability evaluation index system. Using this system, we assessed the spatial distribution of emergency shelters in Xicun town and proposed optimization strategies for the shelter system. The results reveal a significant supply-demand imbalance characterized by poor accessibility, partial overload of village-level shelters, and an irrational distribution with severe shortages of township-level shelters. The suitability evaluation indicates a clear north-south disparity, with higher suitability in the south. After implementing optimization measures—including adding village-level shelters and upgrading those in highly suitable areas—both the balance between supply and demand and overall accessibility are improved across the two-tier shelter system in Xicun town.

Key words: optimal supply-demand allocation model, rural, emergency shelters, spatial layout optimization, accessibility

CLC Number:

X915.5

HOU Kexin, TONG Yan, FAN Liangxin. Optimizing layout of emergency shelters in rural areas based on optimal supply-demand allocation: a case study of Xicun town, Jiaozuo city[J]. China Safety Science Journal, 2025, 35(10): 220-229.

Figures/Tables 14

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Table 1

Evaluation index system for the suitability of emergency shelter site selection

准则层	权重	指标层	权重	综合权重	指标内涵	赋值依据	赋值
选址安全性	0.472 8	地质安全性	0.517 6	0.245	可能发生滑坡、崩塌、塌陷、泥石流的区位	不在地质灾害易发地段	5
		地质安全性	0.517 6	0.245	可能发生滑坡、崩塌、塌陷、泥石流的区位	在地质灾害易发地段	1
		距消防站距离/km	0.283 8	0.134	消防站是灾害发生后救灾的重要力量,距其越近,就可以越快展开救助	[0,0.5]	5
						(0.5,2]	3
						(2,+∞)	1
		坡度/%	0.103 9	0.049	应急避难场所应选择地势较为空旷,坡度较小的平缓地带	(0,7]	4
						(7,15]	3
						(15,30]	2
						(30,+∞)	1
		海拔/m	0.094 7	0.045	高海拔地区可能更容易受到某些自然灾害的影响,如泥石流、山体滑坡等	[168.625,404.033]	5
						(404.033,590.583]	4
						(590.583,781.575]	3
						(781.575,994.775]	2
						(994.775,1301.25]	1
救援可达性	0.216 5	距村级卫生室距离/km	0.231 8	0.050	应急避难场所距医疗设施的距离越近,受伤的灾民就可以越快得到救助,等级越高救助效果越好	[0,0.5]	5
						(0.5,1]	3
						(1,+∞)	1
		距镇级卫生院距离/km	0.414 3	0.090		[0,1]	5
						(1,2]	3
						(2,+∞)	1
		距县级以上道路距离/km	0.192 1	0.042	距道路越近,越便于到达应急避难场所得到救助。高等级的道路通常具有更好的通行能力,居民在紧急情况下能够更快地到达应急避难场所	[0,1]	5
						(1,2]	3
						(2,+∞)	1
		距县级以下道路距离/km	0.161 8	0.035		(0,0.5]	5
						(0.5,1.5]	3
						(1.5,+∞)	1
区位适配性	0.310 7	乡镇级短期避难场所服务范围	0.235 9	0.073	根据GB/T 44013—2024《应急避难场所分级及分类》短期避难场所宜30~40 min内可达。乡镇级短期避难阶段,乡镇级短期避难场所距离村级紧急避难所越近,所用时间越短,救助效果越好;紧急避难场所宜10~15 min内可达。村级紧急避难阶段,应急避难场所距居民点越近,所用时间越短,救助效果越好	10 min内可达	5
						10~20 min内可达	4
						20~30 min内可达	3
						30~40 min内可达	2
						40 min以上可达	1
		村级紧急避难场所服务范围	0.390 2	0.121		5 min内可达	4
						5~10 min内可达	3
						10~15 min内可达	2
						15 min以上可达	1
		最优分配后15 min阈值以外避难需求人口剩余量/人	0.310 2	0.096	计算最优分配后各居民点15 min阈值以外的剩余人口数,利用自然间断点法对其分级,剩余人口数越多对应急避难场所需求越大	(841,1881]	5
						(219,841]	4
						(73,219]	3
						(25,73]	2
						[0,25]	1
		土地利用类型	0.637 0	0.020	土地利用类型根据土地利用类型选出合理的建设用地	建设用地	5
		土地利用类型	0.637 0	0.020	土地利用类型根据土地利用类型选出合理的建设用地	其他用地类型	1

Table 1

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