Abstract:

To study the impact of cognitive bias on energy safety engineering decision-making, the Fukushima nuclear power plant accident was taken as the research object. A full-cycle decision-making analysis chain, covering risk identification (earthquake and tsunami assessment), crisis disposal (cooling system failure treatment), and aftermath management (information disclosure decision-making), was built through retrospective analysis of the accident timeline and key decision points. Cognitive psychology theory was used to analyze decision-making bias phenomena in energy engineering safety management, and the specific mechanisms of these biases in emergency response and risk assessment were revealed. Results show that six typical cognitive biases are present in the emergency decision-making during this accident, including confirmation bias, anchoring effect, representative heuristics, framing effect, loss aversion, and overconfidence. This analysis demonstrates that cognitive bias identification can enhance energy engineering safety management, and improve the effectiveness of safety emergency responses.

Key words: cognitive biases, decision optimization, energy engineering, nuclear power plant accident, emergency response