复杂装备事故非线性耦合特征WPD-MF分析

doi:10.16265/j.cnki.issn1003-3033.2019.12.016

中国安全科学学报 ›› 2019, Vol. 29 ›› Issue (12): 97-102.doi: 10.16265/j.cnki.issn1003-3033.2019.12.016

复杂装备事故非线性耦合特征WPD-MF分析

李超讲师

空军工程大学装备管理与无人机工程学院,陕西西安 710051

收稿日期:2019-09-10 修回日期:2019-11-17 出版日期:2019-12-28 发布日期:2020-11-24
作者简介:李超 (1984—),男,河南信阳人,博士,讲师,主要从事装备系统工程与管理决策、装备安全性分析与控制等方面的研究。E-mail:leecharle@sina.com。
基金资助:
国家自然科学基金资助(71601183)。

Research on non-linear coupling characteristics of complex materiel accident based on WPD-MF

LI Chao

Equipment Management & UAV Engineering College, Air Force Engineering University,Xi'an Shaanxi 710051, China

Received:2019-09-10 Revised:2019-11-17 Online:2019-12-28 Published:2020-11-24

摘要/Abstract

摘要： 为更好地分析复杂装备事故非线性耦合特性及成因,利用小波包消噪(WPD)改进多重分形(MF)去趋势波动分析法 (MFDFA),并结合q阶矩配分函数分析MF谱;通过对比随机重排和相位随机化2种变换事故序列MF谱,探讨非线性时间序列的长程相关性与胖尾分布对MF特性成因的贡献程度;最后,以美空军1946—1996年A级飞行事故为例分析其非线性耦合特征。结果表明:该事故率序列广义hurst指数和分形谱宽度显著不为常数,分布范围分别为[1.213 8, 3.431 4]和[0.293 7, 1.7 025],具有明显MF特性。该MF特性是由长程相关性为主因,胖尾分布为次因共同作用所致。

关键词: 复杂装备, 非线性耦合, 小波包消噪(WPD), 多重分形(MF), 广义赫斯特指数

Abstract: In order to better analyze non-linear coupling characteristics and causes of complex materiel accidents, MF detrended fluctuation analysis (MFDFA) was improved by using WPD, and MF spectrum was analyzed with q^th moment partition function. Secondly, influence on multifractality of long-range correlation and fated-tail distribution of nonlinear time series was discussed through comparing MF spectrum of two kinds of transformed time series, random shuffling and phase randomization. Finally, with class A flight accidents data of United States air force (USAF) from 1946 to 1996 as an example, non-linear coupling characteristics of those accidents were analyzed. The results show that it has obvious multifractality with its distribution range of general hurst index and fractal spectrum width at [1.213 8, 3.431 4] and [0.293 7,1.702 5] respectively. The major cause for its multifractality is long range correlation and minor one is fated-tail distribution.

Key words: complex materiel, non-linear coupling, wavelet packet de-noising (WPD), multi-fractal (MF), general hurst index

中图分类号:

X928.02

李超. 复杂装备事故非线性耦合特征WPD-MF分析[J]. 中国安全科学学报, 2019, 29(12): 97-102.

LI Chao. Research on non-linear coupling characteristics of complex materiel accident based on WPD-MF[J]. China Safety Science Journal, 2019, 29(12): 97-102.

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复杂装备事故非线性耦合特征WPD-MF分析

Research on non-linear coupling characteristics of complex materiel accident based on WPD-MF

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