基于耦合协调分析的火灾-经济-环境时空演化研究

doi:10.16265/j.cnki.issn1003-3033.2024.02.1813

中国安全科学学报 ›› 2024, Vol. 34 ›› Issue (2): 103-109.doi: 10.16265/j.cnki.issn1003-3033.2024.02.1813

• 安全社会科学与安全管理 • 上一篇下一篇

基于耦合协调分析的火灾-经济-环境时空演化研究

向月¹(), 骆鑫¹^,², 秦毅¹, 钱一诺¹

¹ 重庆科技大学安全工程学院,重庆 401331
² 安徽理工大学安全科学与工程学院,安徽淮南 232000

收稿日期:2023-08-14 修回日期:2023-11-15 出版日期:2024-02-28
作者简介:
向月 (1988—),女,重庆人,博士研究生,讲师,主要从事建筑防火、火灾风险及人员疏散方面的研究。E-mail: xiangyue@cqust.edu.cn。
基金资助:
重庆市自然科学基金面上项目资助(cstc2021jcyj-msxmX0809); 重庆市教委科学技术研究计划青年项目(KJQN202001537); 四川省重点研发项目(2021YFS0362)

Research on spatio-temporal evolution of fire-economy-environment based on coupling coordination analysis

XIANG Yue¹(), LUO Xin¹^,², QIN Yi¹, QIAN Yinuo¹

¹ Safety Engineering Institute, Chongqing University of Science and Technology, Chongqing 401331,China
² College of Safety Science and Engineering, Anhui University of Science and Technology, Huainan Anhui 232000,China

Received:2023-08-14 Revised:2023-11-15 Published:2024-02-28

摘要/Abstract

摘要：

为探究火灾、经济、环境的时空演化特征,基于2000—2019年中国火灾、经济、环境数据,建立火灾-经济-环境耦合协调模型,研究火灾、经济、环境系统的耦合发展水平;结合探索性空间数据分析(ESDA)方法研究我国31个省域各子系统时空演变特征及聚集性,并基于Moran' I检验开展火灾、经济、环境空间相关性分析。研究结果表明:2000—2019年火灾、经济和环境综合发展耦合良好。从时间维度上,2000—2019年耦合度和协调度呈上升趋势,耦合度受火灾综合得分影响,协调度受经济子系统影响;从空间维度上,经济发展是影响31个省域耦合协调度的主要因素。从耦合关系时空演变分析看,省域耦合度随时间呈聚集状态,耦合协调度在空间聚集中呈随机性。火灾、经济和环境对耦合协调的不同影响,导致协调类型及空间聚集状态不同。

关键词: 火灾-经济-环境, 耦合协调度, 时空演化, 探索性空间数据分析(ESDA), 熵值法

Abstract:

In order to explore the spatial and temporal evolution characteristics of fire, economy and environment, based on the data of fire, economy and environment in China from 2000 to 2019, a fire-economy-environment coupling coordination model was established to study the coupling development level of fire, economy and environment system. Combined with ESDA method, the spatial and temporal evolution characteristics and aggregation of each subsystem in 31 provinces were studied, and the spatial correlation analysis of fire, economy and environment was carried out based on Moran 'I test. The research shows that the comprehensive development of fire, economy and environment has been well coupled from 2000 to 2019. From the time dimension, the coupling degree and coordination degree showed an upward trend from 2000 to 2019. The coupling degree was affected by the fire comprehensive score, and the coordination degree was affected by the economic subsystem. From the spatial dimension, economic development is the main factor affecting the coupling coordination degree of 31 provinces. From the analysis of the spatial and temporal evolution of the coupling relationship, the provincial coupling degree is aggregated with time, and the coupling coordination degree is random in spatial aggregation. The different effects of fire, economy and environment on coupling coordination lead to different coordination types and spatial aggregation states.

Key words: fire-economy-environment system, coupling coordination degree, spatio-temporal evolution, exploratory spatial data analysis (ESDA), entropy method

中图分类号:

向月, 骆鑫, 秦毅, 钱一诺. 基于耦合协调分析的火灾-经济-环境时空演化研究[J]. 中国安全科学学报, 2024, 34(2): 103-109.

XIANG Yue, LUO Xin, QIN Yi, QIAN Yinuo. Research on spatio-temporal evolution of fire-economy-environment based on coupling coordination analysis[J]. China Safety Science Journal, 2024, 34(2): 103-109.

图/表 8

图1

表1

表2

火灾-经济-环境系统指标权重

火灾指标	权重 $a i$	经济指标	权重 $b j$	环境指标	权重 $c k$
火灾起数	0.266 4	人均 GDP/元	0.256 7	工业SO₂排放量万t	0.203 9
死亡人数	0.210 3	国内生产总值/ 亿元	0.241 4	工业废水总排放量/ 万t	0.187 9
受伤人数	0.202 4	城镇居民可支配收入/元	0.224 3	工业固体废物产量/ 万t	0.148 0
直接经济损失/ 万元	0.320 8	社会消费品零售总额/亿元	0.277 6	城镇建成区绿化覆盖率/%	0.154 5
—	—	生活垃圾无害化处理率/%	0.305 8	—	—

表2

图2

图3

图4

图5

图6

参考文献 12

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耦合度阶段	D值		耦合协调度类型
衰退失调阶段	0≤D<0.4	0.0≤D<0.1	极度失调
		0.1≤D<0.2	严重失调
		0.2≤D<0.3	中度失调
		0.3≤D<0.4	轻度失调
过渡阶段	0.4≤D<0.6	0.4≤D<0.5	濒临失调
过渡阶段	0.4≤D<0.6	0.5≤D<0.6	勉强协调
耦合协调阶段	0.6≤D≤1	0.6≤D<0.7	初级协调
		0.7≤D<0.8	中级协调
		0.8≤D<0.9	良好协调
		0.9≤D≤1	优质协调

基于耦合协调分析的火灾-经济-环境时空演化研究

Research on spatio-temporal evolution of fire-economy-environment based on coupling coordination analysis

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