安全生产治理系统演化模型及机制

doi:10.16265/j.cnki.issn1003-3033.2025.08.0277

中国安全科学学报 ›› 2025, Vol. 35 ›› Issue (8): 14-21.doi: 10.16265/j.cnki.issn1003-3033.2025.08.0277

• 安全科学理论与安全系统科学 • 上一篇下一篇

安全生产治理系统演化模型及机制

赵一归¹^,²(), 王梦瑶³, 邓清禄¹, 郭海林¹^,^**()

¹ 中国地质大学(武汉) 工程学院, 湖北武汉 430074
² 应急管理部信息研究院, 北京 100029
³ 中国地质大学(北京) 工程技术学院, 北京 100083

收稿日期:2025-04-09 修回日期:2025-06-12 出版日期:2025-08-28
通信作者:
^**郭海林(1973—),男,河北唐山人,博士,副教授,主要从事安全风险分析与智能化管控技术方面的研究。E-mail:guohailin@cug.edu.cn。

作者简介:

赵一归 (1974—),男,辽宁普兰店人,博士研究生,教授级高级工程师,主要研究方向为安全系统工程、安全风险管理、安全生产战略规划等。E-mail: yiguizhao@126.com。

邓清禄，教授

基金资助:
国家重点研发计划资助项目(2022YFC3004804)

Evolution model and mechanism of work safety governance system

ZHAO Yigui¹^,²(), WANG Mengyao³, DENG Qinglu¹, GUO Hailin¹^,^**()

¹ School of Engineering, China University of Geosciences (Wuhan), Wuhan Hubei 430074, China
² Information Institute of the Ministry of Emergency Management, Beijing 100029, China
³ School of Engineering and Technology, China University of Geosciences (Beijing), Beijing 100083, China

Received:2025-04-09 Revised:2025-06-12 Published:2025-08-28

摘要/Abstract

摘要： 为推动安全生产治理现代化理论发展,基于系统理论与治理理论,构建包含治理主体、治理规则、治理工具、治理资源的安全生产治理系统要素模型,通过复杂适应系统(CAS)理论分析聚集、非线性、流、多样性、标识、内部模型和积木7个基本特性,进一步结合适应度景观理论和NK模型,构建安全生产治理系统演化的NK景观模型,揭示系统基因形态(A-R-T-S)的16种状态组合及其适应度分布。结果表明:安全生产治理系统由治理主体、治理规则、治理工具及治理资源 4 个要素构成,具备复杂适应系统的特性;系统演化遵循“初建阶段:随机性游走和低状态锁定→发展阶段:适应性游走和局部协同局限→成熟阶段:适应性跳跃和深度协同”3阶段机制;我国安全生产治理系统演化涵盖系统初建期(1978—2002年)、系统完善期(2003—2012年)、系统现代化推进期(2012—2024年)3个阶段和相应机制。

关键词: 安全生产治理系统, 系统演化, 复杂适应系统(CAS), 适应度景观, NK模型

Abstract:

In order to promote the development of theories on the modernization of work safety governance, a four-dimensional model of the work safety governance system—comprising governance actors, governance rules, governance tools, and governance resources—was constructed based on systems theory and governance theory. Using CAS theory, seven fundamental characteristics—aggregation, nonlinearity, flow, diversity, tagging, internal models, and building blocks—were analyzed. Furthermore, by integrating fitness landscape theory and the NK fitness landscape model, an NK landscape model for the evolution of the work safety governance system was developed, revealing 16 state combinations of the system's genetic morphology (A-R-T-S) and their fitness distributions. The results indicate that the system's evolution follows a three-stage mechanism: Initial Stage: Random walk and low-state locking → Development Stage: Adaptive walk and local coordination limitations → Maturity Stage: Adaptive leap and deep coordination. Empirical analysis indicates that the evolution of China's work safety governance system encompasses three periods with corresponding mechanisms: the System Initial Establishment Period (1978—2002), the System Improvement Period (2003—2012), and the System Modernization Advancing Period (2012—2024).

Key words: work safety governance system, system evolutionary, complex adaptive systems (CAS), fitness landscape, NK fitness landscape model

中图分类号:

X913.4安全系统工程

赵一归, 王梦瑶, 邓清禄, 郭海林. 安全生产治理系统演化模型及机制[J]. 中国安全科学学报, 2025, 35(8): 14-21.

ZHAO Yigui, WANG Mengyao, DENG Qinglu, GUO Hailin. Evolution model and mechanism of work safety governance system[J]. China Safety Science Journal, 2025, 35(8): 14-21.

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组合状态	A	R	T	S	W
1	0	0	0	0	0.459 15
2	0	0	0	1	0.543 43
3	0	0	1	0	0.462 37
4	0	1	0	0	0.526 82
5	1	0	0	0	0.439 08
6	0	0	1	1	0.517 14
7	0	1	0	1	0.555 86
8	0	1	1	0	0.510 91
9	1	0	0	1	0.376 72
10	1	1	0	0	0.405 92
11	1	0	1	0	0.700 45
12	1	0	1	1	0.460 11
13	0	1	1	1	0.437 7
14	1	1	0	1	0.515 28
15	1	1	1	0	0.627 48
16	1	1	1	1	0.786 46

组合状态	A	R	T	S	W
1	0	0	0	0	0.377 11
2	0	0	0	1	0.415 02
3	0	0	1	0	0.480 18
4	0	1	0	0	0.520 13
5	1	0	0	0	0.329 01
6	0	0	1	1	0.483 54
7	0	1	0	1	0.510 89
8	0	1	1	0	0.580 11
9	1	0	0	1	0.576 69
10	1	1	0	0	0.698 66
11	1	0	1	0	0.679 2
12	1	0	1	1	0.609 96
13	0	1	1	1	0.724 68
14	1	1	0	1	0.520 16
15	1	1	1	0	0.693 8
16	1	1	1	1	0.807 41

安全生产治理系统演化模型及机制

Evolution model and mechanism of work safety governance system

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