基于日变交通流量降雨损伤LSTM模型的城市路网韧性分析

doi:10.16265/j.cnki.issn1003-3033.2025.12.1472

摘要/Abstract

摘要：

为探究常规降雨作用下城市路网性能时变性,建立合理的路网韧性评价体系,首先,构建城市道路路段交通流量降雨损伤的长短期记忆网络(LSTM)模型;其次,定义具有时变特性的路网性能函数;然后,基于韧性理念推导出路网时变韧性计算模型;最后,基于某城市降雨信息与路网交通数据及Sioux Falls网络,分析降雨对路段与路网时变特性的作用效果。结果表明:当降雨持续时间或降雨量增加时,路段工作日交通流量损伤均有增加趋势;路网韧性是各相关路段协同作用的综合体现,因而其对降雨作用呈现出较交通流量损伤更为迟钝的响应,且其值在常规降雨条件下通常不小于0.9;少雨水季节明显强于多雨水季节的路网韧性,而路网年韧性在未受到降雨灾害影响时一般会维持在一个较高水平上,且其在相近年份之间的差异并不显然。

关键词: 日变交通流量, 降雨损伤, 长短期记忆网络(LSTM), 城市路网, 路网韧性

Abstract:

To explore the time-varying performance of urban road networks under regular rainfall and establish a reasonable evaluation system for road network resilience, an LSTM model for the rainfall-induced traffic flow degradation in urban road segments was first constructed, and a network performance function with time-varying characteristics was second defined. Then, based on the resilience concept, a time-varying resilience calculation model for road networks was derived. Finally, the effect of rainfall on the time-varying characteristics of road segments and networks was investigated based on rainfall information and traffic data of a certain city and the Sioux Falls network. The results show that when the duration or amount of rainfall increases, the traffic flow degradation of road segments increases on weekdays. The road network resilience is a comprehensive reflection of the synergistic effect of various related road segments, and therefore its response to rainfall is slower than that of traffic flow degradation, and its value is generally not less than 0.9 under regular rainfall conditions. The road network resilience during low rainfall seasons is significantly stronger than that during high rainfall seasons, and the annual resilience of road networks is usually maintained at a higher level when not affected by rainfall disasters, and the difference between adjacent years is not significant.

Key words: day-to-day traffic flow, rainfall-induced degradation, long short-term memory (LSTM), urban road networks, road network resilience

中图分类号:

X951交通运输安全

王宏威, 阮晓波, 李雨龙, 汤玉涛, 丁建勋. 基于日变交通流量降雨损伤LSTM模型的城市路网韧性分析[J]. 中国安全科学学报, 2025, 35(12): 213-220.

WANG Hongwei, RUAN Xiaobo, LI Yulong, TANG Yutao, DING Jianxun. Resilience analysis of urban road networks based on LSTM model for rainfall-induced day-to-day traffic flow degradation[J]. China Safety Science Journal, 2025, 35(12): 213-220.

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降雨持续时间/h	降雨量/mm
1	[0.1 1.5]	[1.6 6.9]	[7.0 14.9]	[15.0 39.9]	[40.0 49.9]	[50.0 +∞)
3	[0.1 2.9]	[3.0 9.9]	[10.0 19.9]	[20.0 49.9]	[50.0 69.9]	[70.0 +∞)
6	[0.1 3.9]	[4.0 12.9]	[13.0 24.9]	[25.0 59.9]	[60.0 119.9]	[120.0 +∞)
12	[0.1 4.9]	[5.0 14.9]	[15.0 29.9]	[30.0 69.9]	[70.0 139.9]	[140.0 +∞)
24	[0.1 9.9]	[10.0 24.9]	[25.0 49.9]	[50.0 99.9]	[100.0 249.9]	[250.0 +∞)
降雨等级	小雨	中雨	大雨	暴雨	大暴雨	特大暴雨
路网韧性/%	[99 100]	[97 99]	[96 98]	[94 97]	[90 96]	[0 90]

年份	年韧性
2020年5月—2021年4月	0.985 9
2021年5月—2022年4月	0.987 9
2022年5月—2023年4月	0.989 3