基于相关系数法的煤自燃危险性关联分析及预测

doi:10.16265/j.cnki.issn1003-3033.2024.01.0774

摘要/Abstract

摘要：

为缩短煤自燃倾向性的鉴定时间,首先利用工业分析仪及程序升温试验装置,测得各煤样煤质指标值及不同温度下煤自燃指标气体含量,并通过CO体积分数确定各煤样低温氧化临界温度点;然后再通过Arrhenius公式拟合得出温度与耗氧速率间的方程,并求解出各煤样临界温度前后不同阶段的表观活化能,通过Pearson相关系数法进行煤质指标值与煤样临界温度前后表观活化能之间的关联分析,并计算其相关系数;最后选取相关系数最大的煤质指标值,建立用于计算煤样表观活化能的多元线性回归模型,分析并预测煤自燃危险性。结果表明:煤质指标中不同成分与临界温度前后表观活化能间的相关系数有较大差异,其中挥发分与临界温度前后表观活化能的负相关系数最大,分别为-0.893和-0.977,燃料比与临界温度前后表观活化能的正相关系数最大,分别为0.956和0.968。所建立的多元线性回归模型,其拟合度可达0.912 5和0.933 0。

Abstract:

In order to shorten the identification time of coal spontaneous combustion tendency, firstly, industrial analyzer and temperature programmed test device were used to measure the coal quality index value and the content of coal spontaneous combustion indicator gas at different temperatures. The critical temperature point of low-temperature oxidation was determined by CO volume fraction. Then, the equation between temperature and oxygen consumption rate was fitted through the Arrhenius formula, and the apparent activation energy of each coal sample at different stages before and after the critical temperature was solved. The correlation between the coal quality index value and the apparent activation energy before and after the critical temperature was analyzed by Pearson correlation coefficient method, and the correlation coefficient was calculated. Finally, the coal quality index value with the largest correlation coefficient was selected, and a multiple linear regression model for calculating the apparent activation energy of coal samples was established to analyze and predict the spontaneous combustion risk of coal. The results show that the correlation coefficients between different components of coal quality and the apparent activation energy before and after the critical temperature are significantly different. The negative correlation coefficients between volatile matter and the apparent activation energy before and after the critical temperature are the largest, which are -0.893 and -0.977 respectively. The positive correlation coefficients between fuel ratio and the apparent activation energy before and after the critical temperature are the largest, which are 0.956 and 0.968 respectively. The fitting degree of the established multiple linear regression model can reach 0.912 5 and 0.933 0.

Key words: correlation coefficient method, coal spontaneous combustion risk, apparent activation energy, low temperature oxidation, indicator gas, critical temperature

中图分类号:

X936

张玉涛, 郭强, 张园勃, 李亚清, 孙亚利. 基于相关系数法的煤自燃危险性关联分析及预测[J]. 中国安全科学学报, 2024, 34(1): 125-132.

ZHANG Yutao, GUO Qiang, ZHANG Yuanbo, LI Yaqing, SUN Yali. Correlation analysis and prediction of coal spontaneous combustion risk based on correlation coefficient method[J]. China Safety Science Journal, 2024, 34(1): 125-132.

图/表 10

表1

图1

图2

图3

表2

图4

图5

表3

活化能与煤质指标拟合曲线

参数	临界温度前		临界温度后
参数	拟合曲线	$R 1 2$	拟合曲线	$R 1 2$
水分	y=-0.634 8x+15.875	0.563 8	y=-1.452 7x+69.981	0.801 9
灰分	y=-0.495 8x+23.604	0.546 2	y=-0.661 6x+44.247	0.264 1
挥发分	y=-0.463 1x+30.939	0.958 3	y=-0.972 2x+23.604	0.955 3
固定碳	y=1.593 8x+29.582	0.876 6	y=3.086 4x-80.635	0.892 9
可燃组分	y=1.130 6x+60.521	0.840 1	y=2.114 3x-14.228	0.797 9
燃料比	y=0.130 1x+0.288	0.933 3	y=0.252 7x-8.744	0.936 3

表3

表4

临界温度前后多元线性回归模型

所属阶段	拟合结果	R	$R 2 2$	标准误差
临界温度前	Z₁=-43.842 0+1.351 8I₁+11.954 2I₂	0.955 2	0.912 5	1.631 0
临界温度后	Z₂=63.191 2-0.880 0I₁+0.628 2I₂	0.965 9	0.933 0	0.668 4

表4

表5

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煤级	煤样	水分	灰分	挥发分	固定碳	自燃倾向性
长焰煤	CY1	11.93	12.76	26.58	48.73	自燃
长焰煤	CY2	7.49	18.93	24.25	49.33	易自燃
不黏煤	BN	5.41	15.32	23.34	55.93	易自燃
气煤	QM1	1.80	18.52	22.58	57.10	自燃
气煤	QM2	4.43	15.26	21.70	58.61	自燃
肥煤	FM	0.79	14.24	20.91	64.06	自燃
焦煤	JM1	0.82	11.19	21.20	66.79	自燃
焦煤	JM2	0.82	11.25	20.60	67.33	自燃
焦煤	JM3	0.98	10.95	20.16	67.91	自燃
贫煤	PM	1.56	11.77	18.54	68.13	自燃

煤样	临界温度前			临界温度后
煤样	R²	A	E₁/(J·mol^-1)	R²	A	E₂/(J·mol^-1)
CY1	0.988 0	-3.739 4	13.855 3	0.971 7	6.405 0	41.533 4
CY2	0.983 2	-4.451 0	14.458 0	0.974 3	6.829 8	42.997 5
BN	0.987 6	-3.587 1	16.110 9	0.977 2	6.501 0	43.445 6
QM1	0.990 1	-3.331 1	16.578 1	0.977 4	6.209 5	45.164 1
QM2	0.987 1	-3.975 4	17.342 2	0.992 6	6.515 4	46.522 7
FM	0.986 8	-3.237 2	18.414 7	0.978 1	6.089 8	47.024 8
JM1	0.996 3	-1.702 7	23.038 1	0.978 3	6.239 1	47.062 2
JM2	0.964 4	-1.520 3	23.132 9	0.981 4	6.113 9	47.172 0
JM3	0.972 1	-2.228 0	23.963 4	0.980 4	5.563 7	47.356 5
PM	0.990 2	-0.855 3	26.422 7	0.986 4	6.158 1	48.646 9

煤样	检测值		实际值		误差值
煤样	临界温度前	临界温度后	临界温度前	临界温度后	临界温度前	临界温度后
CY1	14.005 6	40.952 1	13.855 3	41.533 4	0.150 3	-0.581 3
QM1	16.912 3	44.909 0	16.578 1	45.164 1	0.334 2	-0.255 1
JM2	23.077 7	47.116 1	23.132 9	47.172 0	-0.055 2	-0.055 9

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