考虑乘客异质性和群组效应的开敞甲板疏散模拟

doi:10.16265/j.cnki.issn1003-3033.2024.11.1214

中国安全科学学报 ›› 2024, Vol. 34 ›› Issue (11): 185-192.doi: 10.16265/j.cnki.issn1003-3033.2024.11.1214

考虑乘客异质性和群组效应的开敞甲板疏散模拟

杨光照¹(), 蔡薇¹, 胡敏¹, 王珺²^,^**(), 陈顺洪³, 丁彦铭⁴

¹ 武汉理工大学绿色智能江海直达船舶与邮轮游艇研究中心,湖北武汉 430063
² 武汉理工大学安全科学与应急管理学院,湖北武汉 430063
³ 广州船舶及海洋工程设计研究院,广东广州 510220
⁴ 中国地质大学(武汉) 工程学院,湖北武汉 430070

收稿日期:2024-05-14 修回日期:2024-08-18 出版日期:2024-11-28
通信作者:
** 王珺(1982—),女,湖北黄冈人,硕士,讲师,主要从事安全应急管理及国防科研管理方面的研究。E-mail:3604398@qq.com。
作者简介:
杨光照 (1986—),男,河北石家庄人,博士研究生,讲师,主要从事船舶与海洋工程、邮轮游艇设计技术等方面的研究。E-mail:guangzhao@whut.edu.cn。
蔡薇, 教授
胡敏, 助理研究员
陈顺洪, 高级工程师
丁彦铭, 教授
基金资助:
工信部项目([2019]331)

Simulation of open deck evacuation considering passenger heterogeneity and group effect

YANG Guangzhao¹(), CAI Wei¹, HU Min¹, WANG Jun²^,^**(), CHEN Shunhong³, DING Yanming⁴

¹ Green and Smart River-Sea-Going Ship, Cruise Ship and Yacht Research Center, Wuhan University of Technology, Wuhan Hubei 430063, China
² School of Safety Science and Emergency Management, Wuhan University of Technology, Wuhan Hubei 430063, China
³ Guangzhou Marine Engineering Co., Guangzhou Guangdong 510220, China
⁴ Faculty of Engineering, China University of Geosciences, Wuhan Hubei 430070, China

Received:2024-05-14 Revised:2024-08-18 Published:2024-11-28

摘要/Abstract

摘要：

为提高乘客在开敞甲板发生事故时的疏散效率,保障乘客安全,在考虑乘客异质性和群组效应的基础上,采用AnyLogic软件构建乘客的异质性疏散模型,并构建单人组、双人组、3人组及混合组4种疏散场景,模拟异质性乘客在不同群组规模情况下的疏散过程。结果表明:总体疏散时间随群组规模的增大呈非线性增加,乘客在双人组、3人组和混合组场景下疏散时间分别比单人组场景下多11.8%、19.6%和15.5%,且4种疏散场景中乘客抵达疏散终点的高峰期均位于疏散的前中期;在群组疏散时,乘客的期望速度越快,其抵达时间分布则更为离散。结果突显乘客异质性和群组效应在疏散过程中的相互影响。

关键词: 乘客异质性, 群组效应, 邮轮疏散, 疏散模拟, 开敞甲板

Abstract:

To improve the evacuation efficiency and ensure the safety of passengers on an open deck in the event of an accident, a heterogeneous evacuation model considering passenger heterogeneity and group effect was constructed using AnyLogic software. Four simulated evacuation scenarios, including individuals, two-person, three-person and mixed groups, were constructed, and the evacuation process of heterogeneous passengers under different group sizes was simulated. The results indicate that with the increase of the group size, the total evacuation time increases nonlinearly. Specifically, the evacuation time for passengers in two-person, three-person and mixed-group scenarios is 11.8%, 19.6% and 15.5% longer than that in individual evacuations, respectively. Additionally, the peak of passengers' arrival at the terminal occurs in the early and middle stages of evacuation. In group evacuations, the higher expected passenger speed correlates with more dispersed arrival time distributions. These findings highlight the interaction effect between heterogeneous passengers and group effect in the evacuation process.

Key words: heterogeneity of passengers, group effect, cruise ship evacuation, evacuation simulation, open deck

中图分类号:

X915.2安全社会学

杨光照, 蔡薇, 胡敏, 王珺, 陈顺洪, 丁彦铭. 考虑乘客异质性和群组效应的开敞甲板疏散模拟[J]. 中国安全科学学报, 2024, 34(11): 185-192.

YANG Guangzhao, CAI Wei, HU Min, WANG Jun, CHEN Shunhong, DING Yanming. Simulation of open deck evacuation considering passenger heterogeneity and group effect[J]. China Safety Science Journal, 2024, 34(11): 185-192.

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乘客		比例/%	平地移动速度/(m·s^-1)		下楼速度/(m·s^-1)
类型	特征区间	比例/%	最小值	最大值	最小值	最大值
1	年龄<30岁的女性	7	0.93	1.55	0.56	0.94
2	年龄位于30~50之间的女性	7	0.71	1.19	0.49	0.81
3	年龄大于50岁的女性	16	0.56	0.94	0.45	0.75
4	年龄大于50岁的女性,行动受限(1)	10	0.43	0.71	0.34	0.56
5	年龄大于50岁的女性,行动受限(2)	10	0.37	0.61	0.29	0.49
6	年龄小于30岁的男性	7	1.11	1.85	0.76	1.26
7	年龄位于30~50之间的男性	7	0.97	1.62	0.64	1.07
8	年龄大于50岁的男性	16	0.84	1.4	0.5	0.84
9	年龄大于50岁的男性,行动受限(1)	10	0.64	1.06	0.38	0.64
10	年龄大于50岁的男性,行动受限(2)	10	0.55	0.91	0.33	0.55

区域	分区长度/m	乘客数量
分区1	60	216
分区2	65	240
分区3	38	168

考虑乘客异质性和群组效应的开敞甲板疏散模拟

Simulation of open deck evacuation considering passenger heterogeneity and group effect

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