中国安全科学学报 ›› 2019, Vol. 29 ›› Issue (5): 131-137.doi: 10.16265/j.cnki.issn1003-3033.2019.05.022

• 安全社会工程 • 上一篇    下一篇

道路交通安全统计生命价值评价研究:基于四边界二分式条件价值法

刘文歌 副教授   

  1. 大连交通大学 经济管理学院,辽宁 大连 116028
  • 收稿日期:2019-01-18 修回日期:2019-03-20 发布日期:2020-11-02
  • 作者简介:刘文歌(1981—),女,辽宁大连人,博士,副教授,主要从事交通安全与交通经济方面的研究。E-mail:18737653@qq.com。
  • 基金资助:
    国家自然科学基金资助(51608088);教育部人文社会科学研究项目(16YJC630075);辽宁省社会科学规划基金资助(L15BGL003);辽宁省博士科研启动基金指导计划资助(201601261)。

Evaluation study on VOSL in road traffic safety based on quadruple-bound dichotomous CVM

LIU Wen'ge   

  1. School of Economics and Management, Dalian Jiaotong University, Dalian Liaoning 116028, China
  • Received:2019-01-18 Revised:2019-03-20 Published:2020-11-02

摘要: 为提高道路交通安全统计生命价值(VOSL)评估的精确性和可靠性,提出基于四边界二分式条件价值法(CVM)的VOSL评价模型,并进行实证研究获得VOSL评估值。基于四边界二分式选择问卷格式设计CVM调查问卷,利用多项 Logit 模型基本原理构建四边界二分式VOSL评价模型;以大连市私家车出行者为调查对象实施交通意向调查,利用 GAUSS 软件进行模型参数标定和显著性检验;最终获得VOSL评估值,并进行VOSL影响因素分析。结果表明:道路交通VOSL评估值为231.08万元;四边界二分式CVM调查问卷更能模拟市场定价过程,四边界二分式VOSL评价模型具有更高的精确性;道路交通VOSL与学历、家庭月收入显著正相关。

关键词: 道路交通安全, 统计生命价值(VOSL), 条件价值法(CVM), 四边界二分式, 多项Logit模型

Abstract: In order to improve the accuracy and reliability of VOSL assessment in road traffic safety, an evaluation model on VOSL was established based on the quadruple-bound dichotomous CVM, and empirical studies were carried out to obtain the estimated value. Firstly, CVM questionnaire was designed by using the quadruple-bound dichotomous format and VOSL evaluation model was built on account of the principles of multinomial Logit model. Then a survey, targeting at private car drivers in Dalian, was conducted to investigate their transportation interests, and parameters calibration and significance tests were accomplished by means of Gauss. Finally, VOSL was estimated and influencing factors were analyzed. The study results indicate that VOSL in road traffic is estimated to be 2 310 800 yuan. The CVM questionnaire based on quadruple-bound dichotomous format performs better in simulating the process of market pricing, and the VOSL evaluation model based on quadruple-bound dichotomous method features higher accuracy. Moreover, VOSL in road traffic safety maintains a remarkably positive correlation with education background and monthly income of the family.

Key words: road traffic safety, value of a statistical life (VOSL), contingent valuation method (CVM), quadruple-bound dichotomous, multinomial Logit model

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