冰雪道路环境下交通流微观仿真及事故率研究

doi:10.16265/j.cnki.issn1003-3033.2020.01.023

中国安全科学学报 ›› 2020, Vol. 30 ›› Issue (1): 148-154.doi: 10.16265/j.cnki.issn1003-3033.2020.01.023

冰雪道路环境下交通流微观仿真及事故率研究

张杉¹, 庞明宝¹ 教授, 任泊宁^1,2

1.河北工业大学土木与交通学院,天津 300401;
2.中国铁路北京局集团有限公司北京西车务段,北京100165

收稿日期:2019-10-16 修回日期:2019-12-13 出版日期:2020-01-28 发布日期:2021-01-22
作者简介:张杉 (1993—),女,河北石家庄人,硕士研究生,研究方向为交通运输规划与管理E-mail:1332743997@qq.com; 庞明宝(1966—),男,河南西峡人,博士,教授,主要从事交通运输规划与管理、智能交通系统等方面的研究E-mail:pmbpgy@sohu.com。
基金资助:
国家自然科学基金资助(50478088);河北省自然科学基金资助(E2015202266)。

Microscopic simulation and accident probability of traffic flow in ice and snow environment

ZHANG Shan¹, PANG Mingbao¹, REN Boning^1,2

1. School of Civil and Transportation, Hebei University of Technology, Tianjin 300401, China;
2. Beijing West Train Depot, China Railway Beijing Group Co., Ltd, Beijing 100165, China

Received:2019-10-16 Revised:2019-12-13 Online:2020-01-28 Published:2021-01-22

摘要/Abstract

摘要： 为给冰雪下交通管控提供更加科学的决策支持以提高行车安全性,在考虑驾驶员特性的基础上,分析车辆受力及驾驶行为,讨论可能发生的追尾和侧滑事故,建立冰雪下单向双车道可能交通事故的元胞自动机模型(CAM);通过仿真校验该模型,并分析冰雪下流量-密度特性及管控措施下的事故概率。结果表明:应根据冰雪路面类型及道路几何线形采取不同措施以降低事故概率,光滑冰膜水平路面使用融雪剂并限速可将事故概率降低41.02%,其他冰雪下水平路面采用分类限速可将事故概率降低34.20%以上;纵坡采取融雪剂结合分类限速可有效降低事故概率;光滑冰膜下纵坡需安装防滑链或使用冬季轮胎以提高行车安全性。

关键词: 元胞自动机模型(CAM), 交通流仿真, 冰雪道路, 追尾和侧滑事故, 附着系数

Abstract: In order to provide more scientific decision support for traffic control so as to improve driving safety under ice and snow conditions, vehicle force and driving behaviors were analyzed, and possible rear-end collision and side-slip accidents were discussed based on drivers' characteristics. Then, a CAM of two-lane one-way possible traffic accidents under ice and snow conditions was established. Finally, through traffic simulation, this model was validated, and flow-density characteristics and accident probability with control measures were analyzed. The results indicate that different measures should be taken to reduce accident probability according to specific ice and snow conditions and road geometry. It can be reduced by 41.02% through using deicing salt and setting speed limit on horizontal road covered with smooth ice film, and more than 34.20% if different speed limits were set on horizontal road in other ice and snow environment. It can also be reduced effectively by using deicing salt combined with classified speed-limiting measures on longitudinal slope road. And anti-skid chains or winter tires should be installed for vehicles on longitudinal slope road under smooth ice film so as to improve driving safety.

Key words: cellular automaton model (CAM), traffic flow simulation, ice and snow road, rear-end and side-slip accidents, attachment coefficient

中图分类号:

X928.02

张杉, 庞明宝, 任泊宁. 冰雪道路环境下交通流微观仿真及事故率研究[J]. 中国安全科学学报, 2020, 30(1): 148-154.

ZHANG Shan, PANG Mingbao, REN Boning. Microscopic simulation and accident probability of traffic flow in ice and snow environment[J]. China Safety Science Journal, 2020, 30(1): 148-154.

参考文献

[1] 赵玮,徐良杰,冉斌, 等. 基于Adaptive Lasso及RF算法的冰雪天气交通事故分析[J].中国安全科学学报, 2017,27(2): 98-103.
ZHAO Wei, XU Liangjie, RAN Bin, et al. Analyzing traffic crash under iced and snow weather condition based on Adaptive Lasso and RF [J].China Safety Science Journal, 2017,27(2): 98-103.
[2] SEEHERMAN J, LIU Yi. Effects of extraordinary snowfall on traffic safety[J]. Accident Analysis & Prevention, 2015,81: 194-203.
[3] 李慧云. 冰雪条件下公路限速研究[D].哈尔滨: 哈尔滨工业大学, 2012.
LI Huiyun. Research on the highway speed limitation under the condition of ice and snow [D]. Harbin: Harbin Institute of Technology, 2012.
[4] WAN Haifeng, LIU Zhen, WANG Haocheng. Rear-end and lane-changing collisions avoidance theoretical models of the multi-lane freeway in disaster weather [J]. Procedia-Social and Behavioral Sciences, 2013,96: 70-81.
[5] 赵韩涛, 聂涔, 李静茹. 冰雪条件下的交通流元胞自动机模型[J]. 交通运输系统工程与信息, 2015,15(1): 87-92.
ZHAO Hantao, NIE Cen, LI Jingru.Cellular automaton model for traffic flow under ice and snowfall conditions [J]. Journal of Transportation Systems Engineering and Information Technology, 2015,15(1): 87-92.
[6] PANG Mingbao, ZHENG Shasha, CAI Zhanghui. Simulation of three lanes one-way freeway in low visibility weather by possible traffic accidents [J]. Physica A Statistical Mechanics & Its Applications, 2015,433: 161-170.
[7] 庞明宝,任泊宁. 高速公路弯道雨天可能交通事故的CA模型仿真[J].中国安全科学学报, 2017,27(7): 24-29.
PANG Mingbao, REN Boning.Simulation of possible traffic accident in rainy weather on freeway curve using CA model[J].China Safety Science Journal, 2017,27(7): 24-29.
[8] PANG Mingbao, REN Boning. Effects of rainy weather on traffic accidents of a freeway using cellular automata model [J]. Chinese Physics B, 2017,26(10): 1-11.
[9] 徐吉谦, 陈学武. 交通工程总论[M]. 北京: 人民交通出版社, 2009: 229-233.
[10] 张勇刚, 胡三根, 邝先验. 基于人-车-路环境下的车辆跟驰模型[J]. 公路, 2015(3): 139-145.
ZHANG Yonggang, HU Sangen, KUANG Xianyan. Car-following model based on driver-vehicle-road system [J]. Highway, 2015(3): 139-145.
[11] WALLMAN C G, ÅSTRÖM H. Friction measurement methods and the correlation between road friction and traffic safety [R]. Swedish National Road and Transport Research Institute, 2001.
[12] 吉文超. 基于驾驶行为分析的城市道路车辆换道模型研究[D].哈尔滨: 哈尔滨工业大学, 2018.
JI Wenchao. Research on urban road lane changing model based on analysis of driving [D].Harbin: Harbin Institute of Technology, 2018.

冰雪道路环境下交通流微观仿真及事故率研究

Microscopic simulation and accident probability of traffic flow in ice and snow environment

PDF

可视化

摘要/Abstract

引用本文

使用本文

参考文献

相关文章 1

编辑推荐

Metrics

本文评价