基于蝴蝶突变理论的城市突发事件研究

doi:10.16265/j.cnki.issn1003-3033.2023.S1.0091

摘要/Abstract

摘要：

为预防城市突发事件的发生,利用蝴蝶突变理论,分析各类城市突发事件发生过程,构建城市突发事件发生过程机制模型,并分析城市突发事件发生的主要原因,进而构建城市突发事件预防模型,并从政府、单位、个人、法律层面提出城市突发事件的预防措施。研究结果表明:发生过程机制模型可以揭示城市突发事件发生的全过程,城市突发事件发生过程由初始因素变化、初始因素持续变化、系统状态跃迁、城市突发事件4个过程组成;根据发生过程能够分析出城市突发事件发生的主要原因;预防模型为预防城市突发事件的发生提供科学、有效的途径和理论上的支持。

关键词: 蝴蝶突变理论, 城市突发事件, 发生过程机制, 预防模型, 预防措施

Abstract:

In order to prevent the occurrence of urban emergencies, the butterfly mutation theory was used to analyze the occurrence process of various urban emergencies, a mechanism model for the occurrence process of urban emergencies was constructed, and the main reasons for the occurrence of urban emergencies were analyzed. Then, a prevention model for urban emergencies was constructed, and preventive measures for urban emergencies were proposed from the government, units, individuals, and legal levels. The results show that the mechanism model of the occurrence process can reveal the entire process of urban emergencies. The occurrence of urban emergencies is composed of four processes: initial factor changes, continuous initial factor changes, system state transition, and urban emergencies. Based on the occurrence process, the main causes of urban emergencies can be analyzed. The prevention model provides scientific and effective ways and theoretical support for preventing the occurrence of urban emergencies.

Key words: butterfly catastrophe theory, urban emergencies, occurrence process mechanism, prevention model, preventive measures

杨超. 基于蝴蝶突变理论的城市突发事件研究[J]. 中国安全科学学报, 2023, 33(S1): 235-242.

YANG Chao. Research on urban emergencies based on butterfly catastrophe theory[J]. China Safety Science Journal, 2023, 33(S1): 235-242.

图/表 2

参考文献 28

[1]	朱力. 突发事件的概念、要素与类型[J]. 南京社会科学, 2007(11): 81-88.
[2]	刘奕, 钱静, 范维澄. 走向精准: 突发事件风险分析方法发展综述[J]. 中国安全科学学报, 2022, 32(9): 1-10. doi: 10.16265/j.cnki.issn1003-3033.2022.09.2742
	LIU Yi, QIAN Jing, FAN Weicheng. Rise of precision: a review of emergency risk analysis methodology[J]. China Safety Science Journal, 2022, 32(9): 1-10. doi: 10.16265/j.cnki.issn1003-3033.2022.09.2742
[3]	李藐, 陈建国, 陈涛, 等. 突发事件的事件链概率模型[J]. 清华大学学报:自然科学版, 2010, 50(8): 1 173-1 177.
	LI Miao, CHEN Jianguo, CHEN Tao, et al. Probability for disaster chains in emergencies[J]. Journal of Tsinghua University:Science and Technology, 2010, 50(8): 1 173-1 177.
[4]	杨海东, 兰小珍. 基于突变理论的城市道路交通安全突发事件应急能力评价研究[J]. 价值工程, 2018, 37(22):280-284.
	YANG Haidong, LAN Xiaozhen. Assessment for emergency response ability of urban road traffic accident based on catastrophe theory method[J]. Value Engineering, 2018, 37(22):280-284.
[5]	江田汉, 邓云峰, 李湖生, 等. 基于风险的突发事件应急准备能力评估方法[J]. 中国安全生产科学技术, 2011, 7(7): 35-41.
	JIANG Tianhan, DENG Yunfeng, LI Husheng, et al. Risk-based assessment model for emergency preparedness capability of emergency incidents in China[J]. Journal of Safety Science and Technology, 2011, 7(7): 35-41.
[6]	赵鹏飞, 贺阿红, 裴子平. 基于流变-突变理论的城市突发事件群体心理发展规律研究[J]. 科技和产业, 2020, 20(12): 195-199.
	ZHAO Pengfei, HE Ahong, PEI Ziping. Study on the development law of group psychology in city emergency based on rheology and mutation theory[J]. Science Technology and Industry, 2020, 20(12): 195-199.
[7]	杨枫, 叶春明, 种大双. 城市突发事件中基于事故演变的救援需求决策模型及其优化求解[J]. 运筹与管理, 2020, 29(8): 79-88. doi: 10.12005/orms.2020.0203
	YANG Feng, YE Chenming, ZHONG Dashuang. Decision model of rescue demand in urban emergency based on accident evolution and its optimization solution[J]. Operations Research and Management Science, 2020, 29(8): 79-88. doi: 10.12005/orms.2020.0203
[8]	陈秋玲, 张青, 肖璐. 基于突变模型的突发事件视野下城市安全评估[J]. 管理学报, 2010, 7(6):891-895.
	CHEN Qiuling, ZHANG Qing, XIAO Lu. The indexes, model andmethod for urban safety assessment under emergent situation based on the catastrophe model[J]. Chinese Journal of Management, 2010, 7(6):891-895.
[9]	马平. 我国城市突发事件应急管理能力建设路径研究[J]. 中国管理信息化, 2020, 23(10):202-204.
[10]	董本云, 朱丹. 城市突发事件应急管理的问题及对策[J]. 吉林工商学院学报, 2022, 38(3):65-67.
	DONG Benyun, ZHU Dan. Problems and countermeasures of urban emergency management[J]. Journal of Jilin Business and Technology College, 2022, 38(3):65-67.
[11]	COLLINS T W, THOM R, FOWLER D H. Structural stability and morphogenesis: an outline of a general theory of models[J]. Contemporary Sociology, 1977, 6(5): 543-543. doi: 10.2307/2065330
[12]	赵昕强, 王洁子. 基于蝴蝶突变模型与BP神经网络的岩爆烈度预测[J]. 新疆有色金属, 2022, 45(1):95-96.
[13]	刘鹏程, 包太, 殷博, 等. 蝴蝶突变理论在含软弱夹层边坡稳定性评价中的应用[J]. 贵州大学学报:自然科学版, 2019, 36(2):109-112.
	LIU Pengcheng, BAO Tai, YIN Bo, et al. Application of butterfly catastrophe theory in stability of slope with weak interlayer[J]. Journal of Guizhou University:Natural Sciences, 2019, 36(2):109-112.
[14]	黄锦, 黄翁翱. 基于突变理论的城市基础设施建设安全评价及应对研究[J]. 工业安全与环保, 2022, 48(9):56-59.
	HUANG Jin, HUANG Wengao. Safety evaluation and countermeasures of urban infrastructure construction based on catastrophe theory[J]. Industrial Safety and Environmental Protection, 2022, 48(9):56-59.
[15]	锁利铭, 李丹. 城市社会风险评估:基于突变理论的设计与应用[J]. 软科学, 2014, 28(6):121-126.
	SUO Liming, LI Dan. Urban social risk assessment:design and application based on catastrophe theory[J]. Soft Science, 2014, 28(6):121-126.
[16]	黄晓东, 蒲春玲, 宋建华, 等. 基于突变理论的干旱区绿洲城市土地生态安全评价:以乌鲁木齐为例[J]. 广东农业科学, 2016, 43(2):77-82.
	HUANG Xiaodong, PU Chunling, SONG Jianhua, et al. Urban land ecological security assessment of oasis in arid area based on catastrophe theory:a case study of Urumqi[J]. Guangdong Agricultural Science, 2016, 43(2):77-82.
[17]	宋守信, 陈明利, 翟怀远. 反脆弱机制在安全风险管控中的策略研究[J]. 中国安全科学学报, 2020, 30(12): 8-15. doi: 10.16265/j.cnki.issn 1003-3033.2020.12.002
	SONG Shouxin, CHEN Mingli, ZHAI Huaiyuan. Research on strategy of antifragile mechanism in safety risk management[J]. China Safety Science Journal, 2020, 30(12): 8-15. doi: 10.16265/j.cnki.issn 1003-3033.2020.12.002
[18]	梁光河. 基于新大陆漂移模型的地震成因与分布规律分析[J]. 科学技术与工程, 2018, 18(28):47-57.
	LIANG Guanghe. Analyses of the genesis and distribution law of earthquakes based on new continental drift model[J]. Science Technology and Engineering, 2018, 18(28): 47-57.
[19]	陈镇平. 台风的一个简单模型[J]. 河南气象, 1995(3):20-22.
[20]	任停停. 大型商场火灾危险性评价方法研究[J]. 河南城建学院学报, 2016, 25(1):84-88.
	REN Tingting. Fire risk assessment method research for shopping mall[J]. Journal of Henan University of Urban Construction, 2016, 25(1):84-88.
[21]	王岚, 何明宇, 张敏, 等. MicroRNA调控抗病毒免疫和病毒复制[J]. 畜牧兽医学报, 2023, 54(2):48-57.
	WANG Lan, HE Mingyu, ZHANG Min, et al. MicroRNAs regulate antiviral immunity and viral replication[J]. Acta Veterinaria et Zootechnica Sinica, 2023, 54(2):48-57.
[22]	谢海军. “无直接利益冲突”群体性事件的生成动因及逻辑关系分析[J]. 中州学刊, 2014(1): 73-77.
[23]	向良云. 非常规群体性突发事件演化机理研究[D]. 上海: 上海交通大学, 2012.
	XIANG Liangyun. Research on the evolution mechanism of unconventional mass events[D]. Shanghai: Shanghai Jiao Tong University, 2012.
[24]	武晋. 论我国城市群体性事件的成因与处置[D]. 北京: 中共中央党校, 2010.
[25]	刘卿, 曹庆贵, 弭新. 大型人员聚集活动的踩踏事故危险性定性模拟[J]. 西安科技大学学报, 2022, 42(3): 468-475.
	LIU Qing, CAO Qinggui, MI Xin. Qualitative simulation of stampede accidents riskin large crowd gathering activities[J]. Journal of Xi'an University of Science and Technology, 2022, 42(3): 468-475.
[26]	李华, 李琳倩, 益朋. 景区密集人群踩踏事故情景分析[J]. 中国安全科学学报, 2020, 30(4): 108-113. doi: 10.16265/j.cnki.issn1003-3033.2020.04.017
	LI Hua, LI Linqian, YI Peng. Scenario analysis of stampede accidents in scenic spots[J]. China Safety Science Journal, 2020, 30(4): 108-113. doi: 10.16265/j.cnki.issn1003-3033.2020.04.017
[27]	裴颖洁. 突变理论视角下社会安全事件的分析与应对[J]. 河北公安警察职业学院学报, 2021, 21(4): 55-59.
	PEI Yingjie. The analysis of social security incidents from the perspective of catastrophe theory and countermeasures[J]. Journal of Hebei Vocational College of Public Security Police, 2021, 21(4): 55-59.
[28]	喻晓. 应对突发公共事件的预警机制研究[D]. 大连: 大连理工大学, 2013.
	YU Xiao. The research on the early waining mechanism for public emergencies[D]. Dalian: Dalian University of Technology, 2013.