降雪天气对机场基础设施系统韧性恢复的影响

doi:10.16265/j.cnki.issn1003-3033.2024.04.1526

摘要/Abstract

摘要：

为量化评估降雪天气对机场基础设施系统韧性影响,将机场基础设施系统分为物理、功能、经济和组织4个一级指标,提出降雪天气对各二级指标的破坏强度系数,建立机场基础设施系统韧性量化分析模型;采用蒙特卡罗方法分析4种不同等级降雪天气下机场基础设施系统韧性水平变化特征。结果表明:机场基础设施系统功能受损程度和恢复时间与降雪强度呈正相关;小雪、中雪、大雪和暴雪天气下,系统恢复时间分别为13、14、16和23 h;暴雪天气下机场基础设施系统韧性相对于大、中、小雪下分别降低9.65%、17.01%和20.27%;当破坏强度系数降低20%时,机场基础设施系统的恢复速度从0.053%/h提升至0.061%/h,恢复时间由12 h降低至9 h。

关键词: 降雪天气, 机场基础设施, 系统韧性, 一级指标, 恢复时间

Abstract:

To quantitatively evaluate the influence of snowfall on the resilience of airport infrastructure system, the airport infrastructure system was divided into four first-level indicators, including physical system, functional system, economic system and organizational system. The damage intensity coefficient of snowfall weather to the second-level indicators was put forward, and a quantitative analysis model of airport infrastructure system resilience was established. The variation of resilience level of airport infrastructure system was simulated by the Monte Carlo Method under four different levels of snowfall. The simulation result show that the functional damage degree and recovery time of the airport infrastructure system are positively correlated with snowfall intensity. The system recovery time is 13, 14, 16 and 23 respectively under the conditions of light snow, moderate snow, heavy snow and blizzard. The resilience of the airport infrastructure system under the condition of blizzard is 9.65%, 17.01% and 20.27% lower than that under the conditions of heavy, medium and light snow, respectively. The recovery speed of the airport infrastructure system increases from 0.053%/h to 0.061%/h, and the recovery time reduces from 12 h to 9 h when the failure strength coefficient reduces by 20%.

Key words: snowfall, airport infrastructure, system resilience, first-level indicators, recovery time

中图分类号:

X915.5

黄信, 徐平, 吴堃. 降雪天气对机场基础设施系统韧性恢复的影响[J]. 中国安全科学学报, 2024, 34(4): 175-182.

HUANG Xin, XU Ping, WU Kun. Influence of snowfall weather on resilience recovery of airport infrastructure system[J]. China Safety Science Journal, 2024, 34(4): 175-182.

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降雪等级	降雪量/mm
小雪	[0.1,2.5)
中雪	[2.5,5.0)
大雪	[5.0,10)
暴雪	[10,+∞)

一级指标	二级指标	小雪	中雪	大雪	暴雪
物理	核心飞行区道面	U(0,0.25)	U(0.25,0.5)	U(0.75,1)	U(0.75,1)
	空管设施	U(0,0.25)	U(0.25,0.5)	U(0.5,0.75)	U(0.75,1)
	目视助航及灯光设施	U(0,0.25)	U(0.25,0.5)	U(0.5,0.75)	U(0.75,1)
	机场排水系统	B(1,0.26)	B(1,0.42)	B(1,0.48)	B(1,0.72)
	机场供电设施	B(1,0.28)	B(1,0.38)	B(1,0.52)	B(1,0.7)
功能	保障设施	U(0,0.25)	U(0.25,0.5)	U(0.5,0.75)	U(0.75,1)
	航站区陆侧通行区	U(0,0.25)	U(0.25,0.5)	U(0.5,0.75)	U(0.75,1)
	航站区空侧通行区	U(0,0.25)	U(0.25,0.5)	U(0.5,0.75)	U(0.75,1)
经济	机场盈利	U(0,0.25)	U(0.25,0.5)	U(0.5,0.75)	U(0.75,1)
经济	除雪设备及物资	B(1,0.28)	B(1,0.46)	B(1,0.7)	B(1,0.88)
组织	机场人员工作效率	U(0,0.25)	U(0.25,0.5)	U(0.5,0.75)	U(0.75,1)
组织	场监系统	B(1,0.28)	B(1,0.4)	B(1,0.6)	B(1,0.78)

破坏强度系数降低工况/%	0	5	10	20
V/(%·h^-1)	0.053	0.056	0.062	0.061
r_b	0.352	0.368	0.374	0.432