基于说服理论的在线应急语言有效性评价模型及其应用

doi:10.16265/j.cnki.issn1003-3033.2025.07.0181

中国安全科学学报 ›› 2025, Vol. 35 ›› Issue (7): 218-224.doi: 10.16265/j.cnki.issn1003-3033.2025.07.0181

基于说服理论的在线应急语言有效性评价模型及其应用

陈建武¹^,²(), 高婧琦²^,³^,^**(), 徐晶格¹, 李群³, 潘乐文宇², 赵晓飞⁴

¹ 中国安全生产科学研究院人事人才部, 北京 100012
² 中国地质大学(北京) 工程技术学院, 北京 100083
³ 中国安全生产科学研究院科技创新促进部, 北京 100012
⁴ 北京市燃气集团有限责任公司第三分公司, 北京 101125

收稿日期:2025-03-11 修回日期:2025-05-16 出版日期:2025-07-28
通信作者:
** 高婧琦(1997—),女,北京人,博士研究生,工程师,主要研究方向为应急管理、安全人因工程。E-mail: gjq_0421@163.com。
作者简介:

陈建武 (1981—),男,河北衡水人,博士,教授, 正高级工程师,主要从事职业安全健康与应急管理技术方面的研究。E-mail: cjw3000@126.com。
李群教授级高级工程师
基金资助:
国家语委科研项目(WT145-21); 中国安全生产科学研究院基本科研业务费专项经费资助(2025JBKY22)

Evaluation model of online emergency language effectiveness and its application based on persuasion theory

CHEN Jianwu¹^,²(), GAO Jingqi²^,³^,^**(), XU Jingge¹, LI Qun³, PAN Lewenyu², ZHAO Xiaofei⁴

¹ Department of Human Resources and Talent, China Academy of Safety Science and Technology, Beijing 100012, China
² School of Engineering and Technology, China University of Geosciences (Beijing), Beijing 100083, China
³ Department of Science and Technology Innovation Promotion, China Academy of Safety Science and Technology, Beijing 100012, China
⁴ Third Branch, Beijing Gas Group Co.,Ltd., Beijing 101125, China

Received:2025-03-11 Revised:2025-05-16 Published:2025-07-28

摘要/Abstract

摘要：

为提高在线应急语言服务的科学性和有效性,基于Hovland说服理论识别在线应急语言有效性的影响因素,明确应急语言服务评价投入指标和产出指标,构建应急响应阶段的在线应急语言服务有效性评价模型,并建立应急语言服务有效性评价流程;以宁夏银川富洋烧烤店“6·21”特别重大燃气爆炸事故为例,利用大数据分析应急响应阶段微博平台上官方媒体发布的信息,确定应急(含消防)类、公检法类、中央级主流媒体、其他政府类、地方级媒体账号5项类传播者主体并将其作为决策单元(DMU);采用数据包络分析(DEA)方法开展应急语言服务有效性评价。研究结果表明:在线应急语言服务有效性从高到低为中央级主流媒体、公检法类媒体、应急(含消防)类媒体、其他政府类和地方级媒体,其他政府和地方级媒体与前3类传播主体还有较大差异,需要进一步探索其应急语言服务有效性提高的方式方法。

关键词: 说服理论, 在线应急语言, 有效性评价, 数据包络分析(DEA), 应急响应

Abstract:

To enhance the scientific nature and effectiveness of online emergency language services, based on Hovland's persuasion theory, it identified the factors influencing the effectiveness of online emergency language services, clarified the input and output indicators for evaluating emergency language services, constructed an evaluation system for the effectiveness of online emergency language services during the emergency response phase, and established an evaluation process for the effectiveness of emergency language services. Taking the 6·21 Yinchuan Barbecue Shop Explosion Accident as an example, big data analysis was conducted on the information released by official media on the Weibo platform during the emergency response phase. Five types of media accounts were identified as decision-making units (DMU): emergency (including firefighting) media, public prosecution and law enforcement media, central-level mainstream media, other government media, and local-level media. The date envelopment analysis(DEA) method was employed to evaluate the effectiveness of emergency language services. The results of this study illustrated that the effectiveness of online emergency language service is from high to low for the central-level mainstream media, public prosecution and law enforcement media, emergency (include firefighting) media, other government and local-level media. There is a significant gap between other government and local-level media and the top three types of media in terms of emergency language service effectiveness. Further exploration is needed to identify ways to improve the effectiveness of emergency language services for these media types.

Key words: persuasion theory, online emergency language, effectiveness evaluation, data envelopment analysis(DEA), emergency response

中图分类号:

X915.2安全社会学

陈建武, 高婧琦, 徐晶格, 李群, 潘乐文宇, 赵晓飞. 基于说服理论的在线应急语言有效性评价模型及其应用[J]. 中国安全科学学报, 2025, 35(7): 218-224.

CHEN Jianwu, GAO Jingqi, XU Jingge, LI Qun, PAN Lewenyu, ZHAO Xiaofei. Evaluation model of online emergency language effectiveness and its application based on persuasion theory[J]. China Safety Science Journal, 2025, 35(7): 218-224.

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投入指标	特征
叙事代入	是否有人物、事件、环境、时间、情感类词语
叙事视角	是否出现我、我们、你、你们等人称代词
信息框架	是否出现采取行动后出现的好处或者收益类语句
媒介类型	是否涉及视频、音频词语
叙事技巧	是否含有恐惧信息词语

DMU	投入指标					产出指标
DMU	X₁	X₂	X₃	X₄	X₅	Y₁	Y₂	Y₃
应急(含消防)类	57	98	5	98	14	1 371	666	53 702
公检法类	120	281	8	274	32	774	33	1 502
中央级主流媒体	41	76	0	77	13	33 162	4 140	32 2384
其他政府类	202	273	20	293	52	19 752	13 226	500 246
地方级媒体	300	485	68	529	64	7 768	8 629	100 630

DMU	综合效率	纯技术效率	规模效率	规模收益
应急或消防类	0.155	0.929	0.167	递增
公检法类	0.009	0.406	0.023	递增
中央级主流媒体	1.000	1.000	1.000	不变
其他政府类	0.889	1.000	0.889	递减
地方级媒体	0.423	0.504	0.840	递减
平均值	0.495	0.768	0.584	—

DMU	投入指标					产出指标
DMU	${{{s}_{X}}_{1}}^{-}$	${{{s}_{X}}_{2}}^{-}$	${{{s}_{X}}_{3}}^{-}$	${{{s}_{X}}_{4}}^{-}$	${{{s}_{X}}_{5}}^{-}$	${{{s}_{Y}}_{1}}^{+}$	${{{s}_{Y}}_{2}}^{+}$	${{{s}_{Y}}_{3}}^{+}$
应急(含消防)类	1.987	2.499	0.773	2.332	0.000	4 153.051	23.632	0.000
公检法类	0.181	0.891	0.076	0.801	0.000	0.000	63.637	6 022.432
中央级主流媒体	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
其他政府类	48.669	0.000	17.764	14.593	4.716	86 190.177	0.000	529 669.650
地方级媒体	41.556	46.929	28.773	63.473	0.000	61 351.541	0.000	571 314.820
改进占比平均值/%	8.34	0.25	29.48	3.94	9.10	305.82	39.26	214.92

基于说服理论的在线应急语言有效性评价模型及其应用

Evaluation model of online emergency language effectiveness and its application based on persuasion theory

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