基于T-S故障树的通信基站系统地震易损性与重要度分析

doi:10.16265/j.cnki.issn1003-3033.2026.05.0510

摘要/Abstract

摘要：

为解决传统故障树难以准确刻画通信基站系统组件间复杂相关性的问题,提出基于T-S故障树的通信基站系统地震易损性与重要度分析方法。首先,构建“供电-机房-传输”3个子系统架构,建立通信基站系统震后功能损失的T-S故障树模型,利用门规则表量化组件间和子系统间的功能相关性;其次,对比分析通信基站系统与机房子系统的地震易损性曲线;然后,基于Monte Carlo模拟计算传统故障树下的通信基站系统地震易损性,并与T-S故障树结果对比;最后,结合T-S关键重要度开展重要度分析,以识别关键影响因子,并通过组件地震易损性参数敏感性分析定位系统薄弱环节。结果表明:单独分析机房子系统会低估系统功能损失风险,需综合3个子系统分析通信基站系统地震易损性;T-S故障树在刻画组件间模糊逻辑关系方面更具优势,分析结果较传统故障树更为可靠;轻微破坏状态下的线缆和严重破坏状态下的机房建筑为关键影响因子;变电站、输电线路和机房建筑对系统功能影响最为显著。

关键词: T-S故障树, 通信基站系统, 地震易损性, 重要度分析, T-S关键重要度

Abstract:

To solve the limitations of traditional fault trees in accurately capturing the complex correlations among components of communication base station systems, this study proposes a method for seismic fragility and importance analysis based on T-S fault tree. First, a three-subsystem architecture consisting of power supply, machine room, and transmission is constructed, and a T-S fault tree model for post-earthquake functional loss of communication base station systems is established. The functional correlations among components and subsystems are quantified using gate rule tables. Second, the seismic fragility models of communication base station system and the machine room subsystem are comparatively analyzed. Then, the seismic fragility of communication base station system is calculated using traditional fault trees and Monte Carlo simulation, and compared with the results from T-S fault tree. Finally, key impact factors are identified by combining the T-S critical importance analysis, and the weak links of the system are located through the sensitivity analysis of component fragility parameters. The results show that analyzing only the seismic fragility of the machine room subsystem underestimates the risk of system functional loss, and it is necessary to comprehensively analyze the seismic fragility of the communication base station system by integrating the three subsystems. The T-S fault tree method has advantages in describing the fuzzy logic relationships among components, and its results are more reliable than those from traditional fault tree. Cables under the slight damage state and machine room buildings under the severe damage state are the key impact factors. Substations, transmission lines, and machine room buildings have the most significant impact on the system function.

Key words: Takagi-Sugeno(T-S) fault tree, communication base station system, seismic fragility, importance analysis, T-S criticality importance measure

中图分类号:

王威, 王越, 侯本伟, 夏陈红, 郭小东. 基于T-S故障树的通信基站系统地震易损性与重要度分析[J]. 中国安全科学学报, 2026, 36(5): 287-295.

Wang Wei, Wang Yue, Hou Benwei, Xia Chenhong, Guo Xiaodong. Seismic fragility and importance analysis of communication base station systems based on a T-S fault tree[J]. China Safety Science Journal, 2026, 36(5): 287-295.

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参考文献 19

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规则	x₁₀	x₁₁	A₃
规则	x₁₀	x₁₁	D_s0	D_s1	D_s2	D_s3	D_s4
1	D_s0	D_s0	1	0	0	0	0
2	D_s0	D_s1	0.55	0.40	0.05	0	0
3	D_s0	D_s2	0.50	0.15	0.30	0.05	0
4	D_s0	D_s3	0.50	0.10	0.05	0.30	0.05
5	D_s0	D_s4	0	0	0	0	1
6	D_s1	D_s0	0.60	0.30	0.10	0	0
7	D_s1	D_s1	0.15	0.70	0.15	0	0
8	D_s1	D_s1	0.10	0.50	0.35	0.05	0
9	D_s1	D_s3	0.10	0.45	0.15	0.25	0.05
10	D_s1	D_s4	0	0	0	0	1
11	D_s2	D_s0	0.25	0.15	0.50	0.10	0
12	D_s2	D_s1	0.05	0.35	0.50	0.10	0
13	D_s2	D_s1	0	0.15	0.70	0.15	0
14	D_s2	D_s3	0	0.10	0.50	0.35	0.05
15	D_s2	D_s4	0	0	0	0	1
16	D_s2	D_s0	0.25	0.05	0.10	0.50	0.10
17	D_s2	D_s1	0.05	0.25	0.15	0.45	0.10
18	D_s2	D_s1	0	0.05	0.35	0.50	0.10
19	D_s2	D_s3	0	0	0.15	0.70	0.15
20	D_s2	D_s4	0	0	0	0	1
21	D_s4	D_s0	0	0	0	0	1
22	D_s4	D_s1	0	0	0	0	1
23	D_s4	D_s1	0	0	0	0	1
24	D_s4	D_s3	0	0	0	0	1
25	D_s4	D_s4	0	0	0	0	1

代号	基本组件	需求参数/g	损伤状态	地震易损性函数参数
代号	基本组件	需求参数/g	损伤状态	e_i/g	β_i
x₁	变电站^[18]	PGA	D_s1	0. 152 3	0. 473 8
			D_s2	0. 268 2	0. 606 8
			D_s3	0. 470 2	0. 442 8
			D_s4	0. 729 4	0. 497 7
x₂	输电线^[16]	PGA	D_s1	0. 280 0	0. 300 0
			D_s2	0. 400 0	0. 200 0
			D_s3	0. 720 0	0. 150 0
			D_s4	1. 100 0	0. 150 0
x₃	柴油发电机^[19]	PGA	D_s4	0. 900 0	0. 400 0
x₄	蓄电池^[6]	PGA	D_s1	0. 397 0	0. 843 0
x₄	蓄电池^[6]	PGA	D_s3	0. 883 0	0. 959 0
x₅	通信机房^[8]	PGA	D_s1	0. 121 0	0. 713 0
			D_s2	0. 235 1	0. 642 5
			D_s3	0. 434 1	0. 605 9
			D_s4	0. 688 9	0. 587 6
x₆	通信机柜^[5]	PGA	D_s1	0. 300 1	0. 301 2
			D_s2	0. 593 3	0. 298 3
			D_s4	1. 258 3	0. 307 2
x₇	电源柜^[16]	PGA	D_s1	0. 150 0	0. 750 0
			D_s2	0. 320 0	0. 600 0
			D_s3	0. 600 0	0. 620 0
			D_s4	1. 250 0	0. 650 0
x₈	走线架^[5]	PGA	D_s1	0. 439 2	0. 413 3
			D_s2	0. 894 7	0. 343 2
			D_s4	1. 228 8	0. 467 4
x₉	空调^[16]	PGA	D_s1	0. 130 0	0. 550 0
			D_s2	0. 260 0	0. 500 0
			D_s3	0. 460 0	0. 620 0
			D_s4	1. 030 0	0. 620 0
x₁₀	50m四方塔^[5]	PGA	D_s1	0. 519 4	0. 361 1
			D_s3	1. 067 9	0. 345 3
			D_s4	1. 320 5	0. 320 1
x₁₁	通信光缆^[8]	PGA	D_s1	0. 240 0	0. 250 0
			D_s2	0. 330 0	0. 200 0
			D_s3	0. 580 0	0. 150 0
			D_s4	0. 890 0	0. 150 0

基本组件	损伤状态	破坏概率P(D_si)	模糊数
基本组件	损伤状态	破坏概率P(D_si)	a	b	c	d
x₁₀	D_s0	0. 765 3	0. 719 4	0. 727 0	0. 803 6	0. 811 2
	D_s1	0. 232 5	0. 218 6	0. 220 9	0. 244 1	0. 246 5
	D_s2	0. 000 0	0. 000 0	0. 000 0	0. 000 0	0. 000 0
	D_s3	0. 002 1	0. 002 0	0. 002 0	0. 002 2	0. 002 2
	D_s4	0. 000 1	0. 000 1	0. 000 1	0. 000 1	0. 000 1
x₁₁	D_s0	0. 020 5	0. 019 3	0. 019 5	0. 021 5	0. 021 7
	D_s1	0. 147 5	0. 138 7	0. 140 1	0. 154 9	0. 156 4
	D_s2	0. 825 4	0. 775 9	0. 784 1	0. 866 7	0. 874 9
	D_s3	0. 006 6	0. 006 2	0. 006 3	0. 006 9	0. 007 0
	D_s4	0. 000 0	0. 000 0	0. 000 0	0. 000 0	0. 000 0

损伤状态	机房子系统		通信基站系统
损伤状态	e_i/g	β_i	e_i/g	β_i
D_s1	0. 174 2	0. 621 9	0. 158 6	0. 741 7
D_s2	0. 362 6	0. 537 3	0. 259 6	0. 669 9
D_s3	0. 554 3	0. 393 4	0. 400 0	0. 519 4
D_s4	0. 693 0	0. 342 6	0. 495 6	0. 439 6

损伤状态	传统故障树		T-S故障树
损伤状态	e_i/g	β_i	e_i/g	β_i
D_s₁	0. 079 8	0. 408 2	0. 158 6	0. 741 7
D_s₂	0. 161 7	0. 424 3	0. 259 6	0. 669 9
D_s₃	0. 288 5	0. 427 1	0. 400 0	0. 519 4
D_s₄	0. 517 8	0. 378 7	0. 495 6	0. 439 6