LNG accident consequence QRA considering domino effect

doi:10.16265/j.cnki.issn1003-3033.2019.01.012

Abstract

Abstract: To improve the accuracy of QRA for the consequence of LNG accidents, the influence of domino effect on the consequence was included in analysis. The personal risk created by LNG accidents was taken as the object of study.Steps in calculating personal risk include choosing a right model for the initial accident to calculate the thermal radiation and overpressure generated by it, the damage probabilities of the equipment affected and the probabilities of domino scenario occurrences, calculating the personal risk of the target point based on the probabilities of domino scenario occurrences and the human vulnerability model, and calculating the personal risk value by taking the fire and explosion accident during LNG bunkering as an example. Based on example calculations, a comparison was made between the personal risk value obtained with and without considering domino effect. The last analysis shows that the personal risk value obtained with considering domino effect is obviously higher than that without domino effect, and so the results of QRA on the basis of domino effect are more accurate.

Key words: liquefied natural gas (LNG), domino effect, pool fire, jet fire, fire explosion, quantitative risk analysis (QRA)

CLC Number:

X932

TIAN Yuzhong, FAN Hongjun, TU Huan, LI Junrong. LNG accident consequence QRA considering domino effect[J]. China Safety Science Journal, 2019, 29(1): 68-73.

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