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    28 November 2025, Volume 35 Issue 11
    Safety science theory and safety system science
    Theoretical logic and four-dimensional pathways for emergency management discipline construction from perspective of value co-creation
    TAN Shuang, BI Lingfei
    2025, 35(11):  1-8.  doi:10.16265/j.cnki.issn1003-3033.2025.11.1293
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    To explore innovative pathways for the development of emergency management discipline and address its current bottlenecks, this study systematized the theoretical logic of emergency management discipline construction based on value co-creation theory and designed a four-dimensional framework encompassing goal optimization, community building, full-process value co-creation, and technological empowerment. The results indicate that China's emergency management discipline construction currently faces challenges including fragmented value cognition, insufficient stakeholder coordination, unbalanced resource allocation, and superficial technological empowerment. An integrated theoretical framework incorporating value coupling, community construction, full-process co-creation, and technological empowerment can be constructed to guide disciplinary practice. Applying value co-creation theory can address deep-seated contradictions in discipline construction, thereby promoting its transformation from fragmentation toward systematization.

    Safety social science and safety management
    Determinants and formation path of farmers' non-migration intention in high-risk areas of natural disasters
    CHEN Yong, ZHANG Yi
    2025, 35(11):  9-15.  doi:10.16265/j.cnki.issn1003-3033.2025.11.0497
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    In order to explore the formation paths of farmers' non-migration intention in high-risk areas of natural disasters and formulate more effective resettlement policies, five indicators across three dimensions—behavioral attitudes, subjective norms and perceived behavioral control—were extracted as antecedent conditions based on the theory of planned behavior. Using questionnaire survey data from 155 farmers in former Caopo township, Sichuan province, a fsQCA was employed to investigate the determinants for farmers' non-migration intention. The results show that household income, agricultural dependence, risk perception, policy satisfaction and subjective norms cannot individually constitute the necessary conditions for non-migration intention. There are three main paths leading to high non-migration intention. The first is "risk indifference", characterized by low risk perception and weak subjective norms. The second is "livelihood constraint", characterized by high agricultural dependence, low household income, and weak subjective norms. The third is "economically secure but unwilling", characterized by high household income, low policy satisfaction, and weak subjective norms.

    Risk zoo (Ⅸ): white rabbit metaphor for mechanism interpretation of acceptable risk transformation
    TONG Ruipeng, HE Jiehua, LIANG Fanjie, LI Muchen
    2025, 35(11):  16-23.  doi:10.16265/j.cnki.issn1003-3033.2025.11.0097
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    In order to enhance the identification and control of low-probability, low-consequence risk events, this study draws on the theory of acceptable risk and employs questionnaire surveys combined with repeated-measures analysis of variance to examine the applicability and scientific validity of animal metaphors in representing acceptable risks. The questionnaire was designed to assess four animals across dimensions such as perceived threat, stability, controllability, and cultural-emotional associations. Sixty participants with a background in risk management were invited to provide quantitative evaluations. The results indicate that the white rabbit received significantly higher acceptability ratings than the cat, dog, and wolf, with the lowest risk level and the most positive cultural associations, indicating its suitability as a metaphorical representation of acceptable risk. Rabbit risks are characterized by low probability, mild consequences, and cumulative effects, and may transform into unacceptable risks under the influence of multiple factors. Based on this, three prevention principles are proposed: adhering to ALARP principle, incorporating differences in individual and group risk perception, and applying high-probability thinking to low-probability events. A multi-level prevention system comprising elimination, substitution, control, and isolation is constructed to achieve comprehensive risk governance for white rabbit risks.

    Construction risk assessment of metro engineering technical interface based on fault tree and fuzzy BN
    YAN Linjun, LIU Jingjing, WANG Yani, CHEN Huixin
    2025, 35(11):  24-31.  doi:10.16265/j.cnki.issn1003-3033.2025.11.0964
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    In order to quantify the construction risk of urban subway engineering technology interface and screen the key risk factors, a construction risk assessment method of subway engineering technology interface based on fault tree and fuzzy BN was proposed. Firstly, the construction risk factors of metro engineering technology interface were identified from five aspects: personnel, materials and equipment, technology, environment, and management. Secondly, the fault tree model was used to sort out the logical relationship between the construction risk factors, construct a Bayesian network model of the construction risk of metro engineering technology interface, and evaluate the probability of the occurrence of each construction risk factor based on the theory of fuzzy sets and the experience of the experts. Lastly, BN was used to assess the construction risk of Beijing Metro Line 17, which was the largest and most important construction risk factor in China. Finally, BN was used to simulate and evaluate the construction risk of the northern section of Beijing Metro Line 17 as an example. The results show that the probability of risk occurrence in the construction phase of subway engineering technology interface is 65%, which is in the medium risk status level and matches the actual construction of the engineering technology interface. Through reverse diagnostic reasoning, the combination of risk factors with greater impact can be quickly identified, and the efficiency of the diagnosis of the construction risk events of the technical interface can be improved. Meanwhile, through the sensitivity analysis, it can be seen that the weak safety awareness of the technical interface construction personnel and the implementation of the interface construction management system are the key risk factors leading to the occurrence of engineering and technical interface construction risks. The assessment method can provide theoretical support for the prevention and management of metro engineering technology interface construction risk. By constructing a fault tree model to clearly sort out the logical relationships between risk factors, and then converting it into a fuzzy BN model, the accurate calculation and evaluation of risk probabilities are realized. This method has been verified in practical engineering cases, enabling the precise identification of key risk factors and providing a clear direction for risk management and control.

    Unsafe behavior recognition of miners in coal mine belt area based on multimodal feature fusion
    HAO Qinxia, ZHEN Haolong
    2025, 35(11):  32-41.  doi:10.16265/j.cnki.issn1003-3033.2025.11.0357
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    To enhance the accuracy and robustness of miner behavior recognition in underground belt conveyor areas and reduce the occurrence of unsafe behaviors, a multimodal feature fusion-based recognition method was proposed. The method integrated RGB and skeletal modalities, where an improved Efficient Attention(EA)-SlowFast networkwas employed to extract RGB features, and an improved Mobile-Enhanced(ME)-YOLO was utilized for miner detection. The detected miners were subsequently processed by Lite-HRNet for pose estimation to extract skeletal keypoints, which were further encoded using an improved Depthwise Convolution and Channel Prior Attention Spatio-Temporal Graph Convolutional Network (DC-STGCN) to obtain skeletal features. Finally, late fusion of RGB and skeletal features was performed for unsafe behavior recognition. In the experimental design, both public datasets (Human Motion Database 51(HMDB51),University of Central Florida 101 Action Recognition Dataset(UCF101)) and a self-constructed underground coal mine unsafe behavior dataset were adopted for validation. The results demonstrate that, compared with single-modal baseline models, EA-SlowFast and DC-STGCN achieve recognition accuracies of 71.6% and 68.3% on HMDB51, and 88.3% and 85.4% on UCF101, respectively. The multimodal fusion model outperforms the unimproved fusion baseline, achieving 75.4% and 93.5% on HMDB51 and UCF101, respectively. On the self-constructed dataset, ME--YOLO attains a Mean Average Precision(mAP)@0.5 of 91.8% with an inference speed of 38 f/s, satisfying real-time requirements. The fusion model further achieves an accuracy of 90.6%, confirming the effectiveness of the proposed approach in complex underground belt conveyor environments.

    Safety engingeering technology
    Eye-tracking-based analysis of walk-around inspection behavioral characteristics in general aviation pilots
    WANG Yanqing, ZHANG Chengyue, REN Jingrui, ZHANG Shuhan, LIU Di
    2025, 35(11):  42-48.  doi:10.16265/j.cnki.issn1003-3033.2025.11.0542
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    In order to enhance the proficiency of general aviation pilots in walk-around inspections and ensure aviation safety, eye-tracking technology was employed to measure and analyze the completion rates and fixation behavior characteristics of pilots categorized by experience level. Based on the walk-around checklists and inspection procedures, Diamond DA-40D aircraft was divided into six Areas of Interest (AOI), including the engine, wings, fuselage, landing gear, and empennage. During the participants' walk-around inspections, the completion rates of the walk-around checks and the characteristics of fixation behavior for these six AOI were recorded by means of an eye tracker. The results show that the completion rates of inspections in five AOI, including the empennage, engine, right wing, left wing, and left landing gear, were significantly higher in the veteran group than in the novice group. With the increase in flight experience, the completion rates of general aviation pilots' walk-around inspections gradually improve. Significantly higher total fixation durations and total fixation counts were observed in the experienced group compared to the novice group across five AOI: the engine, right landing gear, right wing, left wing, and left landing gear. A significantly longer average fixation duration on the engine AOI was demonstrated by the novice group relative to the experienced group. Recommendations are provided for training to place greater emphasis on the empennage section, right wing, left wing, and left landing gear areas. Additionally, enhancement of novices' inspection capabilities regarding the engine and left landing gear areas is suggested.

    Obstacle detection model for unmanned mining trucks during driving in open-pit mines
    LIU Guangwei, ZHANG Haobo, LEI Jian, HUANG Yunlong, REN Chonghui
    2025, 35(11):  49-55.  doi:10.16265/j.cnki.issn1003-3033.2025.11.0260
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    To accurately detect obstacles during the operation of unmanned mining trucks in open-pit mines, an improved obstacle detection model based on YOLOv8 was proposed. Firstly, STA mechanism was introduced to address the issues of redundant computation and insufficient global modeling in traditional attention mechanisms, thereby enhancing the feature representation capability for small and occluded targets. Secondly, a neck network structure was designed to further improve the localization accuracy of small targets by fusing high-level and low-level features. Then, a compound loss function was constructed to balance the regression accuracy and robustness of bounding boxes, so as to adapt to the diverse shapes of obstacles in open-pit mines. Finally, a self-built dataset was utilized to conduct comparative experiments for verifying the effectiveness of the improved model. The results show that the accuracy, recall rate, and mean Average Precision (mAP) at an Intersection over Union(IoU) threshold of 0.5 of the improved model are 86.2%, 78.9%, and 83.1% respectively, which are 10.3%, 19.4%, and 18.0% higher than those of YOLOv8. Compared with traditional detection algorithms, the improved model exhibits advantages in detection accuracy, recall rate and computational complexity.

    Optimization strategy of snow removal resources allocation before airport disaster
    HUANG Xin, LI Ru, XU Ping, WU Kun
    2025, 35(11):  56-64.  doi:10.16265/j.cnki.issn1003-3033.2025.11.1572
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    To improve the efficiency of pre-disaster airport snow removal resource allocation, collaborative operations between equipment and artificial snow removal were considered. Snow removal resilience was introduced to represent snow removal efficiency, and a multi-objective optimization analysis model of airport pre-disaster snow removal resource reserve was established. The NSGA-Ⅱ was used to solve the optimal solution set and Pareto frontier. The C-OWA operator was introduced to calculate the objective weights of snow removal resilience and cost, and composite weight was determined by combining the subjective weight. Based on the TOPSIS method, the best scheme of pre-disaster snow removal resource reserve was obtained, and the influence of the subjective weight assigned to snow removal resilience on the decision results was analyzed. The results show that the maximum and minimum resilience of the optimal solution set of the multi-objective optimization model considering resilience and cost are 108 600 and 93 928 m3/h, respectively, and the costs are 1.118 million yuan and 798 600 yuan, respectively. The snow removal resilience of the best solution in the optimal solution set of pre-disaster snow removal resource reserve is 97 200 m3/h, and the snow removal cost is 920 700 yuan. Compared with the optimal solution set, the resilience of the optimal solution obtained by optimization analysis is increased by 31.5%, indicating that the established pre-disaster snow removal resource allocation method is feasible. Snow removal resilience is positively correlated with the subjective weight. For example, when the subjective weight is 0, 0.2 and 0.4, the corresponding snow removal resilience are 85 496, 89 600 and 97 200 m3/h, respectively.

    Study on coal bed gas displacement by flue gas in coal-fired power plants under different gas injection factors
    BAI Gang, WANG Xuepeng, SU Jun, LIU Zhengdong, LI Jinyu, FAN Chaojun
    2025, 35(11):  65-71.  doi:10.16265/j.cnki.issn1003-3033.2025.11.2963
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    In order to improve the efficiency of gas extraction, numerical simulation methods were employed to analyze the characteristics of changes in gas volume fraction, gas breakthrough time, coal permeability, CH4 extraction rate, and extraction quantity under different gas injection pressures. The results show that after flue gas injection, the volume fraction of CH4 shows a downward trend, while the volume fractions of CO2, N2 and O2 show an upward trend. The increase in injection pressure will shorten the breakthrough time of each gas in the flue gas, reduce the permeability of the coal seam and increase the gas extraction volume. At 180 days of extraction, the gas injection pressure increased from 0.5 MPa to 2.5 MPa, the coal seam permeability decreased from 8.722 7×10-17 m2 to 8.711 5×10-17 m2, and the extraction volume increased from 449.01 m3 to 715.30 m3. The gas drainage rate shows the variation characteristics of rising - falling - rising - falling. From the perspective of the influence of gas injection pressure on drainage, the gas injection pressure has a relatively small impact on the drainage in the first two stages.

    Study on reduction of seismic vulnerability of frame-elevated silo by base isolation
    LUO Yongzhe, ZHANG Jiahao, TENG Zhenchao, JI Jing
    2025, 35(11):  72-80.  doi:10.16265/j.cnki.issn1003-3033.2025.11.1388
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    To mitigate the seismic collapse risks of elevated silo structures, this study adopted base isolation devices to enhance their seismic performance. A photovoltaic-grade ethylene-vinyl acetate (EVA) packaging project was selected as the research object. A finite element model incorporating base isolation was developed using IDA, and seismic fragility analysis was conducted. The maximum inter-story drift ratio was selected as the Engineering Demand Parameter (EDP), while Peak Ground Acceleration (PGA) was adopted as the Intensity Measure (IM). The seismic performance and failure probability of the original structure and the base-isolated structure were compared and analyzed. The results demonstrate that under the rare earthquake (PGA = 0.22 g), peak inter-story drift ratios are reduced by 65.8% (X-direction) and 51.07% (Y-direction) through base isolation. Furthermore, the progression of plastic hinges is effectively suppressed, and the soft-story collapse mechanism is eliminated. Under the rare earthquake, the collapse probability of the base-isolated structure is significantly reduced from 3.63% to 0.173%. Compared to the original structure, the base-isolated structure exhibits significantly better capability in resisting collapse risks induced by low-probability seismic events. This research provides a theoretical foundation and practical guidelines for the seismic isolation design of elevated silo structures.

    Safety evaluation of lifting machinery based on game theory-improved cloud model
    LIU Jin'e, JIANG Ming, YUN Ke, XIE Xumeng, LI Yongquan, WANG Banqiao
    2025, 35(11):  81-91.  doi:10.16265/j.cnki.issn1003-3033.2025.11.0420
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    To address the issues of an incomplete indicator system and oversimplified weight determination in current lifting machinery safety evaluation, a safety evaluation indicator system for lifting machinery was constructed based on Man,Machine,Milieu,Management(4M) factors theory and 95 lifting machinery accident investigation reports from 2019 to 2023. The BWM was employed to determine subjective weights, while an CRITIC method was introduced to determine objective weights. By applying game theory combination weighting, the subjective and objective weights were integrated to form composite weights, thereby enabling the weighting and evaluation of the established indicator system. The results reveal that human factors are the primary cause of lifting machinery accidents. During safety inspections of operators, particular attention should be paid to their safety awareness and technical proficiency. In safety inspections of lifting machinery, the effectiveness of safety protection devices and the structural integrity of key components should be emphasized. The model outputs are highly consistent with key safety indicators in the on-site inspection records, confirming the effectiveness of the proposed model in the safety evaluation of lifting machinery.

    Research on evolution process of explosions-overpressure damage in multiple storage tank
    LI Shasha, CUI Tiejun
    2025, 35(11):  92-97.  doi:10.16265/j.cnki.issn1003-3033.2025.11.1175
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    In order to study the accident risks caused by the simultaneous explosions of multiple storage tanks in chemical industrial parks, a research method for the overpressure damage evolution process of multiple tank explosions was proposed. First, the explosion damage probability of a single storage tank and the explosion damage probability distribution of a single storage tank were calculated. Then, considering the simultaneous explosions of multiple storage tanks, the overpressure damage evolution process of multiple tank explosions was studied. Finally, the regional damage probability distribution of the simultaneous explosions of multiple storage tanks was obtained. The results show that the evolution result is mainly based on the regional damage probability distribution of Tank o2, and the subsequent regional damage probability distribution decreases gradually. Through the research, the tank explosion sequence set with the maximum damage probability, the corresponding damage probability set and the tank damage probability distribution set are obtained, and the calculation of the regional damage probability distribution of the simultaneous explosions of multiple storage tanks is realized. The complexity of the storage tank explosion process in chemical industrial parks is caused by the differences in the energy provided during the initial explosion and the differences in the overpressure damage evolution process of storage tank explosions.

    Optimization of flight slot for airport group considering needs of multiple stakeholders
    REN Jie, QU Shiru, WANG Lili, ZHANG Jialiang, SUN Zhiyuan
    2025, 35(11):  98-106.  doi:10.16265/j.cnki.issn1003-3033.2025.11.0159
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    To enhance operational efficiency and ensure flight safety, a multi-objective flight slot optimization model was developed by comprehensively considering the requirements of airlines, air traffic control authorities, slot coordination authorities, and airports, subject to airport capacity, terminal waypoint capacity, and safety requirements. The model aimed to achieve balanced and efficient slot allocation within airport clusters, and its effectiveness was validated using actual flight data from Beijing Capital International Airport, Beijing Daxing International Airport, and Tianjin Binhai International Airport in the Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei airport cluster. The results show that the optimized slot distribution becomes more balanced, with peak-hour flight numbers reduced by 7%, the average adjustment per airline decreased by 18.2%, and the total adjustment across the airport cluster reduced by 10.4%. At Beijing Capital Airport, capacity utilization efficiency during peak hours is improved, with redundancy increasing from 2.9% to 8.3%. At Beijing Daxing Airport, slot distribution becomes more balanced, with redundancy increasing from 1.6% to 6.5%. At Tianjin Binhai Airport, the optimized flight volume is maintained within capacity limits, improving safety margins, with redundancy rising from -13.9% to 8.3%. The model effectively enables the rational allocation of flight schedules, significantly enhancing operational safety and resource utilization efficiency.

    Optimization and stability research of span parameters for thick orebody mining sites
    CHENG Zhuzhe
    2025, 35(11):  107-113.  doi:10.16265/j.cnki.issn1003-3033.2025.11.0167
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    To balance stope stability with mining economy and to inform stope span design in similar engineering projects, a comprehensive investigation was conducted on the stope span and its stability, using the -200 m level of a copper mine as a case study. The Mathews stability chart method was adopted to evaluate the stope stability by calculating the rock mass stability index and hydraulic radius, thereby defining a reasonable range of stable stope spans. Based on the analysis, four stope span scenarios were designed and numerically simulated using finite difference software to study the stope responses. Comparative analyses were performed on roof displacements and the characteristics of plastic zones in the surrounding rock. The results show that as the stope span increases from 12 m to 18 m, vertical displacement of the roof increases gradually, and the volume of the plastic zone fluctuates slightly. However, when the span reaches 20 m, a significant increase in roof displacement and a sudden expansion of the plastic zone which leads to through-going failure is observed, severely compromising roof stability. An optimal stope span of 18 m is recommended for the -200 m level of the copper mine. The stope span design of mining should consider the influence of factors such as orebody occurrence conditions, safety and efficiency.

    Research on conditional variable and configuration paths of bottled liquefied petroleum gas accidents based on fsQCA
    SUN Yilin, ZHENG Xiaoqiang
    2025, 35(11):  114-121.  doi:10.16265/j.cnki.issn1003-3033.2025.11.0248
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    In order to curb the occurrence of bottled LPG accidents and ensure the safety production, firstly, a multi-agent accident causation model for bottled LPG was established based on 50 typical cases in mainland China from 2013 to 2024. Secondly, seven core accident causal factors were extracted from it as conditional variables. Finally, fsQCA method was applied to explore the configuration paths of accidents. The analysis results indicate that the bottled LPG accidents are not only characterized by distinctive multi-factorial complications, but also have diverse formation mechanisms. In total, there are eight configuration paths of accidents, which are further categorized into six types, namely the multiple risk coupling, coupling of illegal applied behaviors and equipment failure, illegal applied behaviors of bottled LPG, organizational deficiencies, illegal operation of bottled LPG, and equipment failure. The organizational factors, such as deficiencies in safety production management systems, inadequate safety inspections and rectification of hidden dangers, illegal operation of bottled LPG, and ineffective safety supervision and law enforcement play key roles in the emergence and evolution of accidents. The conclusion indicates that three configuration paths with relatively the highest unique coverage, configuration 1a, configuration 5, and configuration 6a, should collectively be regarded as priorities for accident prevention and control.

    Simulation study on wellbore instability of horizontal wellbore in deep interbedded gangue combined coal rock
    WANG Heyuan, FENG Fuping, ZHANG Jianwei, HAN Xu, ZHANG Yuhao, YANG Donglin
    2025, 35(11):  122-130.  doi:10.16265/j.cnki.issn1003-3033.2025.11.1468
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    To address wellbore instability caused by differences in the physical-mechanical properties of coal-rock and gangue seams, this study established a numerical model for borehole collapse in deep horizontal wells with composite coal-rock layers. The model leveraged triaxial compression test data on coal-rock and gangue mechanics, integrating composite material failure criteria with poroelastic coupling equations. This model was used to simulate how coal-gangue configurations affect peripheral collapse pressure in horizontal wells and analyze the influence of interface positioning and dip angles on collapse pressure distribution. The results show that significant differences in mineral composition ratios between coal and gangue create compromised cementation strength at interfaces, where coal samples fracture more readily due to lower strength. Disparities in physical-mechanical properties and weak interfacial bonding cause pronounced pressure discontinuity at contacts when drilling traverses varied composites. While interface position dictates coal-gangue collapse pressure differentials, dip angle variations not only modulate peak collapse pressure magnitudes but also trigger migration of extreme-value locations along the borehole wall.

    Research on multi-classification detection method of wall hollow drum based on Bayesian algorithm optimization and feature fusion
    ZHOU Yinhui, DING Yong, WU Yulong, LI Denghua, GE Dalong
    2025, 35(11):  131-138.  doi:10.16265/j.cnki.issn1003-3033.2025.11.0233
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    To achieve high-precision recognition of wall hollowing sound signals and improve multi-category detection accuracy, a multi-feature fusion method for wall hollowing detection based on BO-SVM was proposed. First, the collected knocking sound signals from different wall types were preprocessed by pre-emphasis, framing, and windowing, and both MFCC and MSC were extracted. The two acoustic features were concatenated at the frame level and normalized to construct a fused feature dataset. Then, a BO-SVM classification model was developed, and the kernel function penalty and parameters were optimized using five-fold cross-validation to establish the MFCC+MSC-BO-SVM model. Finally, classification experiments were conducted using hollow and non-hollow from multiple wall types, including cement, coating, marble, and ceramic tile walls. The results show that the fused features outperform single features in terms of accuracy, recall, and F1-score. The MFCC+MSC-BO-SVM model achieves an overall recognition accuracy of 96.36%, representing improvements of 6.61%, 9.58%, 15.27%, 13.90%, and 5.02% compared with standard SVM, Random Forest, K-Nearest Neighbor, Grid Search-optimized SVM, and Chaos Particle Swarm Optimization SVM respectively. Furthermore, the BO method can obtain the optimal parameter combination with fewer iterations, showing superior convergence and classification stability.

    Public safety
    Review on diseased tunnel health diagnosis and reinforcement technologies
    JIANG Yujing, PAN Zhutian, ZHANG Xuepeng, LI Ningbo
    2025, 35(11):  139-148.  doi:10.16265/j.cnki.issn1003-3033.2025.11.0116
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    In order to reduce tunnel lining diseases and extend the safe service life, a diagnostic framework for tunnel lining diseases was constructed, and maintenance and reinforcement methods for diseased tunnels were explored from the perspectives of diagnosis and reinforcement. The application status of technologies for diagnosing tunnel diseases and maintaining/reinforcing tunnels was reviewed. The advantages and disadvantages of various detection technologies were systematically identified, and disease diagnosis methods and reinforcement measures were summarized. The results show that non-destructive testing technologies have evolved from single/semi-automatic to integrated/intelligent systems. Acoustic wave, ground-penetrating radar, and laser scanning technologies have different efficiency and accuracy characteristics. Although automatic detection systems integrating photogrammetry and multi-sensor fusion have gradually been applied, they face challenges in the synchronous detection of multiple diseases. Traditional maintenance and reinforcement technologies are difficult to meet the requirements of low cost and high safety. Although new technologies such as Fiber Reinforced Polymer (FRP) are advantageous, they have issues such as high cost and insufficient environmental adaptability.

    Traffic flow prediction model based on adaptive spatio-temporal multi-head graph attention network
    ZHOU Xinmin, XU Tian, LI Da, WANG Longxin, HU Jianghua, WANG Wei
    2025, 35(11):  149-156.  doi:10.16265/j.cnki.issn1003-3033.2025.11.0469
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    An adaptive spatio-temporal multi-head graph attention network was proposed for traffic-flow prediction to improve urban traffic safety and alleviate congestion. A three-stage architecture was designed to achieve refined prediction. Firstly, a spatio-temporal information from traffic flow data was encoded by a spatio-temporal encoding and a traffic-flow graph was constructed. Subsequently, the traffic-flow graph is adaptively enhanced at both the flow attribute and graph structure levels. Then, a two-branch multi-head spatial self-attention mechanism was employed to mine intrinsic associations at global and local spatial scales, thereby decoupling complex spatial dependencies. By temporal heterogeneity and a multi-head temporal attention mechanism, the complex dynamic relationships in time-series data were capture from multiple perspectives. A multilayer perceptron (MLP) was incorporated to explore deep connections between present and future traffic flows. The model's effectiveness was validated using real-world datasets. The results demonstrate that the proposed model outperforms existing methods in key metrics for traffic flow prediction, with reductions in Mean Absolute Error (MAE) and Mean Absolute Percentage Error (MAPE) of up to 5.12% and 19.11%, respectively. Furthermore, a high degree of agreement was observed between the predicted and true values, particularly in scenarios with sudden traffic fluctuations. The predictions reflect the actual changes effectively. By optimizing spatio-temporal feature extraction capabilities, prediction errors are effectively reduced and the performance of traffic flow prediction is improved, which demonstrates the effectiveness of the model.

    Study on mechanism of increased fire spread rate of suspended cables
    PENG Wei, WANG Yiting, ZHANG Shaojie, REN Junsheng, ZHOU Yue, GU Heng
    2025, 35(11):  157-163.  doi:10.16265/j.cnki.issn1003-3033.2025.11.0453
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    In order to clarify the influence of droop angle on suspended cable fire spread characteristics, a cable combustion test platform was constructed. The cable combustion tests with different droop angles (θ) and different cross-sectional areas (S) were carried out. The results show that the flame presents an axisymmetric conical state when the cable is arranged horizontally. When the droop angle is greater than 0°, as the combustion progresses, the flame shape transits from a multi-branched cone to an extended state along the cable direction. The flame spread behavior of cable can be divided into three stages: the advance of the pyrolysis front in stage I increases FSR, the interaction between thermal convection and thermal radiation in stage II leads to a rapid increase of FSR. Stage III thermal radiation dominates the continuous increase of FSR. The radiation heat flux generated by combustion plays a leading role in the increase of FSR. The rapid increase of radiation heat flux and the appearance of peak value are consistent with the three stages of fire spread, which can be used as a sign of the increase stage. The increase of θ and the decrease of S will promote the increase of FSR. According to the Stephen-Boltzmann law, the relationship between θ and S for the increase of FSR is proposed, and the theoretical index of the relationship is in good agreement with the experimental index.

    Construction and characteristic analysis of county disaster resilience evolution model for rainstorm disasters
    LEI Ting, HUI Xiaojing, LIU Jie
    2025, 35(11):  164-171.  doi:10.16265/j.cnki.issn1003-3033.2025.11.0754
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    In order to increase the systematicity and flexibility of disaster response behavior at the grassroots level, a triangle model of county disaster resilience was constructed. Taking the rainstorm in Jianchang, Liaoning Province in 2024 as an example, social network analysis method was used to establish an association network among rainstorm disaster events, county disaster bearing bodies and emergency management plans. The system dynamics model reflecting the evolution process of county disaster resilience was designed by introducing the time series dimension, and the individual attributes of network nodes were used as the basis for model evaluation. The results show that the county disaster resilience shows an evolutionary trend of slowly decreasing first and then steadily increasing, and the growth rate gradually accelerates. During the pre-disaster warning stage, disaster events, disaster-bearing bodies, and emergency management plans respectively possess the characteristics of suddenness, exposure, and absorption. Organizational preparations, communication preparations, material preparations, and publicity preparations have the greatest room for optimization. During the disaster response stage, disaster events, disaster-bearing bodies, and emergency management plans respectively possess coupling and uncertainty, sensitivity, and adaptability characteristics. There is still room for improvement in the capacity to evacuate the masses, communication guarantee mechanisms, and the resilience of power facilities. During the post-disaster recovery stage, disaster-bearing bodies and emergency management plans respectively possess adaptability and adjustment characteristics. At this time, it is necessary to optimize the planting structure of crops and enhance the flood resistance capacity of roads. Emergency management plans always have the characteristic of learning throughout the entire cycle of disaster response.

    Influence of normalized bonnet leading edge height on pedestrian ground contact injuries after being impacted
    SHANG Shi, WANG Guofeng, WANG Ningzhen, WEI Wei, LI Quan, TANG Liang
    2025, 35(11):  172-179.  doi:10.16265/j.cnki.issn1003-3033.2025.11.1623
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    To optimize vehicle design and improve road safety, the effect of the NBLEH on pedestrians head injuries during ground contact was investigated. The impact with the ground AIS 1+ pedestrian landing injury cases was selected, and data analysis along with multicollinearity tests was conducted. The results show that as the NBLEH increases, the severity of pedestrian head injuries exhibits a corresponding upward trend. Through Logistic regression analysis, it is further revealed that for AIS 2+ head injuries in adult pedestrians can be jointly predicted by vehicle speed, age, and NBLEH. Specifically, the risk of injuries is increased with higher values of NBLEH, faster speeds, and older ages. Analysis of real accident videos demonstrates that a smaller NBLEH results in increased full-body rotation angles of pedestrians. However, once NBLEH surpasses 0.9, the rotation angle notably diminishes. The collision force transmission and the pedestrian's landing posture are altered by different values of NBLEH. Additionally, cadaver crash tests were conducted using two types of vehicles with different front-end heights to establish test conditions with different NBLEH values. The results indicate that NBLEH not only influences the timing of head contact with the ground, but also that there is an interaction between head landing posture and collision speed, further complicating head injuries. Parametric simulation studies reinforced that NBLEH significantly influences factors such as posture, angle, timing, and speed during pedestrian head-to-ground contact, thereby increasing the complexity and uncertainty of surrounding injury mechanisms. The simulation results show that both vehicle speed and NBLEH influence the pedestrian flip angle, with NBLEH values less than 1 producing larger pedestrian flip angles than values greater than 1.

    Analysis of drivers' visual characteristics under different driving conditions in high-density interchange of freeway
    YUAN Chunling, HOU Gen, YANG Zimiao, ZHU Xinglin, XU Jin
    2025, 35(11):  180-189.  doi:10.16265/j.cnki.issn1003-3033.2025.11.1391
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    In order to study the influence characteristics of different driving conditions on driving behavior of small-clearance interchanges, eye tracker was used to collect the drivers' eye movement data in the real vehicle experiment. k-medoids dynamic clustering method was used to divide the drivers' visual interest area. A comparative analysis of gaze behavior and saccade characteristics of drivers was conducted of under mainline entry and exit conditions at conventional clear-distance and small-clearance interchanges and across different driving stages. The driving behavior characteristics of drivers under high-density interchange of the expressway were revealed. The results show that drivers mainly focus on the area of road ahead and instrument panel, and they also pay special attention to the area of the left mirror when driving into mainline conditions. The 500 ms gaze time is a common time window for drivers to capture key information. The mean value of the gaze time on small-clearance interchange is higher than that on regular-clearance interchanges. There is a clear bias in observing the horizontal and vertical information in different driving phases. The mean gaze duration was higher in the small-clearance interchanges than in the conventional interchanges. The reduction of clear distance of the interchanges increases drivers' scanning amplitude and changed the scanning direction, which is most obvious in the interweaving section. The scanning amplitude is uniformly distributed in the range of 200 px. There is no significant difference in the mean distribution of fixation time between drivers of different driving ages. There is no significant monotonic relationship between the drivers' gaze duration and scanning speed and amplitude, while there is a significant positive correlation between scanning speed and amplitude of scanning.

    Technology and engineering of disaster prevention and mitigation
    Urban resilience influence factors from perspective of disaster chain
    YANG Yuying, GUO Haixiang
    2025, 35(11):  190-197.  doi:10.16265/j.cnki.issn1003-3033.2025.11.0778
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    To enhance urban resilience against disaster chains, this study proposed an analytical framework and methodology for identifying influencing factors from a disaster chain perspective. Firstly, a comprehensive list of urban resilience influencing factors was established by focusing on the core capacities of resilient cities within disaster chain contexts. Secondly, an improved fuzzy DEMATEL-ISM integrated method was introduced to identify top-level factors, clarify hierarchical structures and interaction pathways among influencing factors, and analyze resilience enhancement approaches from economic and demographic perspectives. Finally, taking the resilience construction practice of Chengdu in the context of disaster chain as an example, the rationality of this theoretical analysis was verified. Results indicate that the top-level design factors, aimed at addressing disaster chains, primarily focus on prevention, preparedness, and adaptation. Fundamental factors include insurance protection, emergency command in the disaster chain scenario and government departments' ability to jointly handle chain disruptions to reduce disasters, adequacy of emergency resource preparation, and ecological environment restoration and governance. Direct influencing factors encompass housing quality, medical assistance capacity, emergency evacuation capacity, and basic living security. The most effective approaches to enhance economic resilience in disaster chains are strengthening insurance protection and accelerating infrastructure repair, both promoting economic recovery. Enhancing population resilience relies primarily on measures such as housing security, life support, emergency evacuation support, and basic living security. Chengdu maintains relatively sound resilience construction under disaster chain scenarios, though certain aspects require further optimization.

    Synergistic study on dual-network for risk propagation and emergency response in earthquake disasters under extreme environments
    ZHANG Ludan, WANG Deyun, ZHU Wenkai, SUN Ying, GUO Haixiang
    2025, 35(11):  198-206.  doi:10.16265/j.cnki.issn1003-3033.2025.11.0323
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    To optimize the emergency management system for plateau disasters and to address the scientific demand for improving governance effectiveness under extreme plateau environments, this study developed a dual-network framework—"risk propagation-emergency response"—using the Ms6.8 Shigatse earthquake in Tibet as a case study. Based on complex network theory, it uncovered the cascading dynamics of seismic risks and multi-actor coordination governance patterns. The analysis demonstrates that the cascading disaster network exhibits a core-periphery structure, where critical nodes trigger multi-level chain reactions via infrastructure fragility and cultural sensitivity. Plateau-specific disaster chains are identified, such as "cold survival crisis → mass livestock deaths → pressure of harmless treatment", alongside culturally embedded risks like "language barriers" and "religious site damage", and their impacts further promote the cultural adaptive reconstruction of the traditional emergency management system. The coordination network shows a decentralized, short-path, high-density topology, indicating efficient collaboration despite persistent hierarchical redundancy.

    Emergency technology and management
    Location optimization of metro subway emergency rescue stations considering node importance
    LEI Bin, LI Yujin, LI Na, LIU Wei, LUO Linlin, LEI Dongbo
    2025, 35(11):  207-219.  doi:10.16265/j.cnki.issn1003-3033.2025.11.1151
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    In order to study the scientific and reasonable location selection of regional emergency rescue stations and base-level emergency rescue stations in the planning and construction stage of the subway network, firstly, the topology model of the subway network was constructed based on complex network theory. Relevant indicators were selected to construct the evaluation system of node importance, and GWR model was used to predict passenger flow to supplement the research data. Secondly, aiming at the highest efficiency, optimal coverage and lowest cost, the multi-objective location model of regional emergency rescue stations was established, and NSGA-Ⅱ algorithm was used to solve the optimal scheme. At the same time, a hybrid analysis calculation method was designed to solve the comprehensive importance value parameters of nodes in the model, and based on the site selection results of regional emergency rescue stations, the enumeration method was used to solve the optimal solution of base-level emergency rescue stations. Finally, Xi'an metro planning network was taken as an example to verify the calculation. The results show that compared with the optimal solution in the case of "no consideration of node importance", the regional location solution with "consideration of node importance" saves about 2.19% in cost, improves the rescue efficiency by about 9.43%, and exceeds the optimal solution with about 4.66% in coverage. Therefore, the location scheme of "considering node importance" is more in line with the actual needs of the subway network.

    Construction and application of emergency event evolutionary graph for disaster risk assessment
    ZHU Li, YANG Yaoxing
    2025, 35(11):  220-227.  doi:10.16265/j.cnki.issn1003-3033.2025.11.1632
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    In order to more accurately capture the evolutionary patterns of disaster risks and facilitate scientific risk assessment, this study innovatively integrated the dual natural and social attributes of disasters. By leveraging the outcomes from event extraction, event relationship identification, and event generalization, a method based on causal association strength was developed to mine event logic. Subsequently, an emergency event evolutionary graph was constructed for assessing chain-reaction disaster risks. Combined with a similarity matching method that incorporates the multi-dimensional attributes of disaster events, an empirical study was conducted using earthquake disasters as a case study. The results demonstrate that the proposed disaster risk assessment framework based on the event evolutionary graph can rapidly identify historical earthquake events with high similarity to the Luding earthquake case. Furthermore, by leveraging the intrinsic interconnections and evolutionary paths among risks revealed by the graph, the framework can predict secondary disasters (e.g., landslide-dammed lakes) and derivative social risks (e.g., rumor propagation).

    Emergency bus evacuation planning considering transfer urgency
    CHEN Na, PAN Shiwei, QIN Xiangnan, LIU Jun
    2025, 35(11):  228-235.  doi:10.16265/j.cnki.issn1003-3033.2025.11.0961
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    In order to realize scientific and efficient post-disaster transfer of the population after the occurrence of major natural disasters, the emergency bus evacuation planning considering the transfer urgency was studied according to the different severity of the disaster. Firstly, a continuous emergency bus evacuation model was established with the goal of minimizing the evacuation completion time and evacuation delay satisfaction degree. Secondly, a HS-GA based on transfer urgency coding was designed and applied for problem-solving, and the effectiveness of the algorithm was verified using examples of different scales. Finally, the evacuation planning considering the transfer urgency was compared with those without considering the transfer urgency based on the case. The results show that the HS-GA is better than Genetic Algorithm (GA) and Neighborhood Search GA (NS-GA). According to the case solved by HS-GA, a comparison is made with evacuation planning that does not consider transfer urgency. When transfer urgency is considered, the evacuation delay dissatisfaction degree is reduced by 51.4%. Additionally, shorter evacuation completion times are observed at both Class I and Class II disaster sites. The average time taken to arrive at the shelter is also found to be shorter. At the same time, the dissatisfaction degrees of evacuation delay considering the urgency of transfer under different emergency bus quantity are all lower. The evacuation model considers the evacuation priority of the hard-hit areas under different severity of the disaster, and can make reasonable dispatch arrangements under the circumstance of limited rescue vehicles, which is more objective and in line with the actual situation.

    Analysis of influencing factors on digital intelligence empowering emergency management system and capacity modernization: based on DEMATEL-ISM method
    WU Yiming, SHEN Xia
    2025, 35(11):  236-244.  doi:10.16265/j.cnki.issn1003-3033.2025.11.0259
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    In order to explore the role of intelligent and digital empowerment in the modernization of emergency management systems and capacities, this study identified the key influencing factors and clarifies their interrelationships. CiteSpace was applied to cluster and analyze relevant domestic and international literature, while NVivo12plus, combined with expert consultations, was used to identify 16 influencing factors from four dimensions: environment, mechanism, technology, and data. DEMATEL method was employed to calculate the influence, dependence, centrality, and causality of each factor, and ISM was used to construct a hierarchical structure and reveal their internal logical relationships. By integrating the DEMATEL and ISM models, five key factors were identified, namely political and legal frameworks, cultural awareness, demand and supply, management strategies and planning, and managerial attention and support, which rank highest in multiple indicators and play a significant role in promoting modernization.

    Occupational health
    Simulation on impact of physiological fatigue on safety behavior capacity of underground workers
    WANG Wensheng, JIANG Runfa, YANG Sanjun
    2025, 35(11):  245-252.  doi:10.16265/j.cnki.issn1003-3033.2025.11.0246
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    To prevent accidents caused by miners' unsafe behaviors induced by physical fatigue and reduce the impact of physical fatigue on safe behaviors abality, a physical fatigue response test was carried out. First, forty adult male participants were equally divided into two groups, with each group induced to develop MEF and MPF respectively. Subsequently, a series of operational performance tests were conducted to measure attention level, reaction speed, judgment accuracy, and body coordination ability. Then, paired sample t-tests were employed to analyze pre- and post-fatigue behavioral data, investigating the effects of physiological fatigue on safety-related performance capabilities. Finally, evidence-based management recommendations were formulated according to the analytical results. The findings reveal that muscular endurance fatigue significantly compromise attention levels through its effects on mean pupil diameter(P<0.01), blink frequency(P<0.01), and saccadic rate(P<0.05). While muscular explosive power fatigue also demonstrates measurable influence on attentional performance as evidenced by altered pupil diameter(P<0.01), its effect magnitude is statistically inferior to that of endurance fatigue. Also, muscular explosive power fatigue reduces the body coordination ability, as both hand-eye coordination ability(P<0.05) and fine operation ability(P<0.05)have significantly declined. However, muscle explosive fatigue does have a certain improvement effect on reaction speed, with simple reaction time increasing by 0.028 s(P<0.01) and comprehensive reaction time increasing by 0.020 s(P<0.01). Physiological fatigue has no significant impact on judgment accuracy.

    Research progress on emergency-synergy in public health emergencies over past decade
    YANG Yi, ZHENG Ran, LIU Yue, LUO Yongjun, LYU Nan, YU Xuan
    2025, 35(11):  253-262.  doi:10.16265/j.cnki.issn1003-3033.2025.11.1675
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    In order to capture the evolving landscape of research on emergency-synergy in public health emergencies and systematically synthesize key studies and their characteristics in this domain, this study employed the scientific knowledge mapping tool CiteSpace to conduct a visual analysis of relevant literature from the past decade. Data were retrieved from core collections of China National Knowledge Infrastructure(CNKI)and Web of Science(WOS). Concurrently, existing research findings were systematically examined across five dimensions: synergistic models, mechanisms, subjects, decision-making processes, and model construction. The results indicate that research output on emergency-synergy in public health emergencies grew steadily alongside the progression of Corona Virus Disease 2019(COVID-19) pandemic, with a subsequent decline as the pandemic subsided. Overall publication volume in this field remains modest: the retrieval yielded 121 academic papers, 306 master's and doctoral theses, and 54 foreign-language documents. Research focus is predominantly concentrated in areas such as emergency management, collaboration mechanisms, and multi-stakeholder synergy. The analysis further reveals that evolutionary game theory and dynamic disease transmission theory have gained significant traction among researchers in modeling emergency-synergy. The synergistic mechanism featuring "government leadership, multi-party participation, and clear division of responsibilities" has garnered widespread recognition within the academic community. Nevertheless, challenges persist regarding the practical implementation of multi-subject emergency synergy under government leadership, warranting further in-depth investigation. It is projected that future research will advance toward theoretical refinement of emergency-synergy governance models and the diversification of synergistic subjects.