Sub-safety state identification of ATC under multi-factor coupling of vulnerability
YUE Rentian, ZHANG Zhibo
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In order to effectively prevent and control aviation accidents and unsafe events caused by ATC, the sub-safety state of ATC operation was scientifically and accurately identified. Firstly, based on vulnerability theory, the concept of ATC operation system vulnerability was obtained. Secondly, the coupling model of vulnerability factors was constructed to analyze the change characteristics of system operation state in the evolution process of characteristic factors, and the essence of sub-safety state was analyzed referring to immunology theory. Finally, N-K model was used to calculate coupling values of different vulnerability factors as boundary set of characteristic elements, and the cloud model reverse cloud generator is used to evaluate the boundary of characteristic elements. All vulnerability factors are integrated, and the final operation state of the system is verified. The results show that the exposure degree of two-factor coupling system is 0.094 9, and deviation of system operation state from 0.077 6, the recovery of system state from 0.057 0, and final state of the system is 0.962 1. Three-factor couplings are 0.341 7, 0.308 4, 0.201 5, 0.859 9, respectively, and four-factor couplings 0.861 0, 0.877 9, 0.541 7, 0.663 8,which are basically consistent with verification results. Sub-safety state occurs in the stage of system exposure greater than sensitivity, and the evolution process of system vulnerability is exposure-fitness-sensitivity-fitness.