Driving characteristics analysis and collision risk evaluation in expressway agglomerate fog areas

doi:10.16265/j.cnki.issn1003-3033.2025.05.1534

Abstract

Abstract:

In order to reduce the risk of traffic accidents in expressway agglomerate fog environment, the expressway agglomerate fog zone was divided into transition zone and conflict zone, and driving simulation tests were designed and carried out. Firstly, Analysis of Variance(ANOVA)and non-parametric tests were used to analyze the driving behavior in the two zones. Then, Pearson correlation analysis was used to explore the correlation characteristics of the driving behavior indicators between transition zone and conflict zone. Finally, a binary logistic regression model was used to explore the mechanism of the influence of driving behavior on the collision risk. The study shows that: in transition zone, driving experience and visibility change rate have a significant effect on speed standard deviation and inner boundary speed. Compared with novice drivers, experienced drivers have 36.8% lower speed standard deviation and 13.5% higher inner boundary speed. Visibility change rate has a statistically significant difference on speed standard deviation and inner boundary speed. Different visibility change rates correspond to different inner boundary speed and speed standard deviation. In conflict zone, time to collision (TTC) was significantly positively correlated with visibility, and reaction time was significantly negatively correlated with visibility. TTC, reaction time and collision rate were all significantly negatively correlated with the conflict distance. The speed adjustment behavior in the transition zone significantly affects collision risk in conflict zone.

Key words: expressway, agglomerate fog, driving simulation, driving behavior, collision risk

CLC Number:

X951交通运输安全

WU Fuwei, LI Yulong, MA Yong, WANG Chang, ZHANG Zhi. Driving characteristics analysis and collision risk evaluation in expressway agglomerate fog areas[J]. China Safety Science Journal, 2025, 35(5): 124-134.

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类别	性别		平均驾驶里程/km
类别	男性	女性	平均驾驶里程/km
熟练驾驶人	9	4	60 769
新手驾驶人	14	8	16 136

变量	自由度	H	p
性别	1	0.909	0.340
驾驶经验	1	1.095	0.047^*
性别×驾驶经验	3	0.981	0.612
能见度变化率	2	3.943	0.036^*

变量	自由度	F	p
性别	1	4.227	0.042^*
驾驶经验	1	1.017	0.315
性别×驾驶经验	3	2.261	0.415
能见度变化率	2	0.032	0.038^*

变量	自由度	F	p
性别	1	0.959	0.329
驾驶经验	1	1.744	0.009^*
性别×驾驶经验	3	1.224	0.089
能见度变化率	2	13.839	<0.001^*

变量	类别	TTC
变量	类别	平均值/s	标准差/s
性别	男	3.19	1.82
性别	女	2.84	1.72
驾驶经验	熟练	3.38	1.99
驾驶经验	新手	2.84	1.61
能见度	20	2.55	1.59
	50	2.51	1.24
	200	4.09	1.99
冲突距离	100	2.37	1.28
冲突距离	200	3.74	1.96
能见度× 冲突距离	20×100	1.71	1.09
	50×100	2.02	0.80
	200×100	3.37	1.26
	20×200	3.39	1.59
	50×200	3.00	1.42
	200×200	4.81	2.33