关键词: 电梯, 故障率, 环境温湿度, GM(1,N)预测模型, 残差修正模型

Abstract: In order to improve the safety management level of elevator field, reduce the failure rate of elevator and ensure the safety of elevator operation, a GM (1,N) prediction model of elevator failure rate affected by temperature and humidity was built. Influences of environmental temperature and humidity on the failure rate of elevator was studied. The prediction model was verified and the residual sequence was obtained. A residual correction model was built based on the residual sequence to modify the prediction model. The failure rate of a certain brand of elevator was predicted by the modified model. The results show that prediction by using the modified model conforms with the reality closely, that the effect of humidity on the failure rate is more significant than that of temperate, that the brand of elevator fault rate has a rising trend, and the inspection, maintenance and management of the brand elevator should be strengthen.

Key words: elevator, failure rate, environmental temperature and humidity, GM (1,N) prediction model, residual correction model