基于GERT-MC的飞机起落架故障风险传递分析

doi:10.16265/j.cnki.issn1003-3033.2018.03.019

中国安全科学学报 ›› 2018, Vol. 28 ›› Issue (3): 108-113.doi: 10.16265/j.cnki.issn1003-3033.2018.03.019

基于GERT-MC的飞机起落架故障风险传递分析

陶茜讲师, 李超讲师, 李正欣讲师, 张育讲师, 陈向阳

空军工程大学装备管理与无人机工程学院, 陕西西安 710051

收稿日期:2017-12-19 修回日期:2018-02-08 出版日期:2018-03-28 发布日期:2020-11-09
作者简介:陶茜 (1983—),女,陕西西安人,博士,讲师,主要从事装备系统工程与智能决策、质量安全管理等方面的研究。E-mail:taoqian_tq@sohu.com。
基金资助:
国家自然科学基金资助(71601183)。

GERT-MC based analysis of transmission of failure risks in aircraft main landing gear system

TAO Qian, LI Chao, LI Zhengxin, ZHANG Yu, CHEN Xiangyang

Equipment Management and UVA Engineering College, Air Force Engineering University, Xi'an Shaanxi 710051, China

Received:2017-12-19 Revised:2018-02-08 Online:2018-03-28 Published:2020-11-09

摘要/Abstract

摘要： 为解决风险随机性大、多因素交互的飞机主起落架系统 (AMLGS)故障问题,构建图示评审技术-蒙特卡罗(GERT-MC)故障风险传递模型;利用GERT网络中并联结构、自环结构和环路的简化规则,以及蒙特卡罗方法,设计仿真求解算法;以某飞机主起落架为例,用上述算法计算其总体风险度、确定关键风险环节,并与解析法计算结果对比。研究表明:该模型具有与解析法同样的解算精度,且具有更好的可信性,利于加强飞机维修监控的针对性。

关键词: 飞机起落架系统 (AMLGS), 故障风险, 蒙特卡罗(MC)方法, 图示评审技术(GERT), 敏感度分析

Abstract: A model of failure risk transmission based on GERT-MC was built to solve the problems of randomness and interaction between failure risks in AMLGS. The series and parallel and loop structures of GERT were simplified, and the MC simulation method was used to design a simulation solving algorithm for the model. System risk and key links of failure risk were identified exactly for an AMLGS taken as an example. A comparison between the analytical and simulation methods showed that the model is effective in quantitative analysis and control of transmission of failure risks in an AMLGS.

Key words: aircraft main landing gear system (AMLGS), failure risk, Monte Carlo(MC) method, graphical evaluation and review technique(GERT), sensitivity analysis

中图分类号:

X949

陶茜, 李超, 李正欣, 张育, 陈向阳. 基于GERT-MC的飞机起落架故障风险传递分析[J]. 中国安全科学学报, 2018, 28(3): 108-113.

TAO Qian, LI Chao, LI Zhengxin, ZHANG Yu, CHEN Xiangyang. GERT-MC based analysis of transmission of failure risks in aircraft main landing gear system[J]. China Safety Science Journal, 2018, 28(3): 108-113.

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基于GERT-MC的飞机起落架故障风险传递分析

GERT-MC based analysis of transmission of failure risks in aircraft main landing gear system

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