北极海冰环境下船舶事故严重程度影响因素分析

doi:10.16265/j.cnki.issn1003-3033.2019.10.013

中国安全科学学报 ›› 2019, Vol. 29 ›› Issue (10): 84-90.doi: 10.16265/j.cnki.issn1003-3033.2019.10.013

北极海冰环境下船舶事故严重程度影响因素分析

付姗姗¹ 讲师, 刘燕平¹, 席永涛² 副教授, 张明阳³, 胡甚平² 教授

1 上海海事大学交通运输学院,上海 200136;
2 上海海事大学商船学院,上海 200136;
3 芬兰阿尔托大学工程学院, 芬兰艾斯堡 FI-000761

收稿日期:2019-07-18 修回日期:2019-09-17 出版日期:2019-10-28 发布日期:2020-10-27
作者简介:付姗姗 (1987—),女,湖北武汉人,博士,讲师,主要从事水路运输系统安全与可靠性、北极航运系统风险评价等方面的研究。E-mail: ssfu@shmtu.edu.cn。席永涛 (1977—),男,河北石家庄人,博士,主要从事海事安全管理、风险建模与人因可靠性分析。E-mail: xiyt@shmtu.edu.cn。
基金资助:
国家自然科学基金资助(51709168);上海市科技创新行动计划(19692106500,18DZ1206104)。

Analysis of influencing factors on severity of ship accidents in ice-covered Arctic waters

FU Shanshan¹, LIU Yanping¹, XI Yongtao², ZHANG Mingyang³, HU Shenping²

1 College of Transport & Communications, Shanghai Maritime University, Shanghai 200136, China;
2 Merchant Marine College, Shanghai Maritime University, Shanghai 200136, China;
3 School of Engineering, Aalto University, Espoo FI-00076, Finland

Received:2019-07-18 Revised:2019-09-17 Online:2019-10-28 Published:2020-10-27

摘要/Abstract

摘要： 为深入分析北极水域船舶事故影响因素,分别从劳氏全球海事事故数据库和加拿大运输安全局海上运输事故数据库抽取、清洗和转换1998—2017年共311条北极水域船舶事故数据,构建双变量Probit模型并分析边际效应,识别并研究北极海冰环境下船舶严重事故和污染事故的影响因素及其影响程度。研究结果表明:双变量Probit模型不仅可以识别船舶严重事故和污染事故之间的影响因素,而且可以分析两者之间的潜在联系;北极海冰环境下船舶严重事故和污染事故之间存在负相关关系;船舶总吨、船舶类型、船龄、事故类型、事故年份、事故地点、风和海冰是影响北极水域船舶严重程度的显著因素。

关键词: 北极航运安全, 影响因素分析, 双变量Probit模型, 严重事故, 边际效应分析

Abstract: In order to analyze influencing factors of ship accidents in Arctic waters, 311 ship accident data in Arctic waters from 1998 to 2017 were collected, cleaned and converted from maritime accident database from Lloyd's List Intelligence and Transportation Safety Board of Canada. Then a bivariate probit model was constructed and marginal effect analysis was conducted to identify and study influencing factors and associated impact levels of ship accidents (serious accidents and pollution accidents) in Arctic ice-covered waters. The results show that bivariate probit model can not only identify influencing factors of serious accident and pollution accident, but also sort out potential relationship between them which is a negative correlation. It is also found that gross tonnage, ship type, ship age, accident type, accident year, accident location, wind, and sea ice are notable factors that influence severity of ship accidents in Arctic waters.

Key words: Arctic shipping safety, influencing factors analysis, bivariate probit model, serious accidents, marginal effect analysis

中图分类号:

X951

付姗姗, 刘燕平, 席永涛, 张明阳, 胡甚平. 北极海冰环境下船舶事故严重程度影响因素分析[J]. 中国安全科学学报, 2019, 29(10): 84-90.

FU Shanshan, LIU Yanping, XI Yongtao, ZHANG Mingyang, HU Shenping. Analysis of influencing factors on severity of ship accidents in ice-covered Arctic waters[J]. China Safety Science Journal, 2019, 29(10): 84-90.

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北极海冰环境下船舶事故严重程度影响因素分析

Analysis of influencing factors on severity of ship accidents in ice-covered Arctic waters

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