考虑室内呼吸暴露风险的人群引流控制策略研究

doi:10.16265/j.cnki.issn1003-3033.2022.05.0842

中国安全科学学报 ›› 2022, Vol. 32 ›› Issue (5): 14-20.doi: 10.16265/j.cnki.issn1003-3033.2022.05.0842

• 安全社会科学与安全管理 • 上一篇下一篇

考虑室内呼吸暴露风险的人群引流控制策略研究

梁本部¹^,²(), 谢科范¹^,^**(), VAN DER WAL Natalie², 刘嘉³

¹ 武汉理工大学管理学院,湖北武汉 430070
² 代尔夫特理工大学技术政策与管理学院,荷兰代尔夫特 2628 BX
³ 中南财经政法大学信息与安全工程学院,湖北武汉 430073

收稿日期:2021-12-14 修回日期:2022-03-05 出版日期:2022-05-28
通讯作者:
**谢科范(1963—),男,湖南益阳人,博士,二级教授,博士生导师,主要从事风险管理和应急疏散等方面的研究。E-mail: xkf@whut.edu.cn。
作者简介:
梁本部 (1992—),男,山东济宁人,博士研究生,研究方向为风险管理、人群疏散和建模仿真等。E-mail: liangbenbu@whut.edu.cn。
VAN DER WAL Natalie, 副教授
刘嘉, 副教授
基金资助:
国家自然科学基金面上项目资助(72071212); 武汉研究院开放性课题重点项目(IWHS20201002); 国家留学基金委资助(202106950053)

Crowd intervention strategies considering indoor respiratory exposure risks

LIANG Benbu¹^,²(), XIE Kefan¹^,^**(), VAN DER WAL Natalie², LIU Jia³

¹ School of Management, Wuhan University of Technology, Wuhan Hubei 430070, China
² Faculty of Technology, Policy and Management, Delft University of Technology, Delft 2628 BX, Netherlands
³ School of Information and Safety Engineering, Zhongnan University of Economics and Law, Wuhan Hubei 430074, China

Received:2021-12-14 Revised:2022-03-05 Published:2022-05-28

摘要/Abstract

摘要：

为明确重大疫情中人群引流控制策略对室内呼吸暴露风险的影响,基于改进的行人动力学模型和呼吸传染概率模型,构建一般室内情况下人群运动多种场景,借助多智能体仿真技术,模拟防护优化策略、流量优化策略和路线优化策略对呼吸暴露风险影响。研究结果表明:室内呼吸暴露风险主要取决于行人总流量、个体停留时间、运动路径规划和污染区域持续时间;在行人社交距离遵循行为方面,个体因必须保持设定的物理距离而形成延滞效应,这会进一步增加暴露于污染区域时间;口罩病原体渗透率越低、空间通风量越大,群体呼吸传染概率越小。

关键词: 室内呼吸, 呼吸暴露风险, 人群引流控制策略, 呼吸传染, 行人动力学, 场景仿真

Abstract:

In order to explore impacts of crowd intervention strategies on indoor respiratory exposure risks during major pandemics, a variety of crowd motion scenarios were established in general indoor conditions based on improved pedestrian dynamics model and respiratory infection probability model. Then, multi-agent simulation technology was utilized to simulate impacts of strategies, including protection optimization, pedestrian flow optimization and route optimization, on the exposure risks. The results show that indoor respiratory exposure risks are mainly determined by total pedestrian flow, individuals' stay length, movement route planning and duration of stay in contaminated areas. The carryover effect will be formed due to pedestrians' obedience behavior of social distancing, which will further increase exposure time to contaminated areas. The lower pathogen permeability of masks, and the greater space ventilation are, the lower infection probability the crowd will face.

Key words: indoor breathing, respiratory exposure risk, crowd intervention strategy, respiratory infection, pedestrian dynamics, scenario simulation

梁本部, 谢科范, VAN DER WAL Natalie, 刘嘉. 考虑室内呼吸暴露风险的人群引流控制策略研究[J]. 中国安全科学学报, 2022, 32(5): 14-20.

LIANG Benbu, XIE Kefan, VAN DER WAL Natalie, LIU Jia. Crowd intervention strategies considering indoor respiratory exposure risks[J]. China Safety Science Journal, 2022, 32(5): 14-20.

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考虑室内呼吸暴露风险的人群引流控制策略研究

Crowd intervention strategies considering indoor respiratory exposure risks

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场景	人群数量	开放时间/ h	停留时间/min	污染区持续时间/min	物理距离/ m	行走路线
S0	2 400	10	u (25,27)	3	0	自由活动
S1-1-1	—	—	—	2	—	—
S1-1-2	—	—	—	1	—	—
S1-1-3	—	—	—	0.5	—	—
S1-2-1	—	—	—	—	1	—
S1-2-2	—	—	—	—	1.5	—
S1-2-3	—	—	—	—	2	—
S2-1-1	2 000	—	—	—	—	—
S2-1-2	1 600	—	—	—	—	—
S2-1-3	1 200	—	—	—	—	—
S2-2-1	—	5	—	—	—	—
S2-2-2	1 200	5	—	—	—	—
S2-3-1	—	—	u (23,25)	—	—	—
S2-3-2	—	—	u (21,23)	—	—	—
S2-3-3	—	—	u (19,21)	—	—	—
S3	—	—	—	—	—	既定路线