危化品事故人为因素关联规则挖掘与分析

doi:10.16265/j.cnki.issn1003-3033.2022.11.2387

摘要/Abstract

摘要：

为加强生产企业危化品的安全管理,采用Apriori算法挖掘危化品事故中人为因素关联规则;以217篇危险化学品事故报告作为数据样本,基于事故统计数据,采用Apriori算法获取895条关联规则,其中,规则涵盖人为因素、事故发生时间、月份与泄漏、爆炸、火灾、中毒窒息4种事故类型的关联性;在人为因素分析结果的基础上,绘制非人为因素与违规动火作业提升度指向图,并绘制非人为因素与人为因素提升度指向图。结果表明:爆炸与火灾事故、泄漏与中毒窒息事故相互间具有强关联规则。每个事故具有相应的强关联事故时间和月份。违规动火作业行为与爆炸、火灾、泄漏3种类型事故均形成强关联规则。作业手续管理不到位、混合爆炸气体/物环境、盲板被拆除/未安装等9种非人为因素与违规动火作业产生强关联规则。

关键词: 危化品事故, 人为因素, 关联规则, Apriori算法, 违规动火作业

Abstract:

Apriori algorithm was used to mine the association rules of human factors in hazardous chemical accidents. 217 accident reports were employed as data samples. Based on the accident statistics, 895 association rules were obtained by Apriori algorithm. The rules cover the correlation between human factors, accident time and month and four types of accidents:leakage, explosion, fire and poisoning and asphyxiation. Based on the analysis results, a graph of non-human factors and illegal fire operation lift direction was drawn in this study. Furthermore, a graph of non-human factors and human factors lift direction was drawn. The results show that explosion and fire accidents, leakage and poisoning and asphyxiation accidents have strong correlation rules with each other. Each accident has a strong correlation with the accident time and month. Illegal fire work and three types of accidents (explosion, fire, leakage) are forming strong correlation rules. Nine types of non-human factors, such as inadequate management of work procedures, mixed explosive gas/physical environment, and removed/uninstalled blind, have strong association rules with illegal fire work.

Key words: hazardous chemicals accidents, human factor, Apriori algorithm, association rules, illegal fire work

李鑫, 阳富强. 危化品事故人为因素关联规则挖掘与分析[J]. 中国安全科学学报, 2022, 32(11): 134-139.

LI Xin, YANG Fuqiang. Human factor association rules mining and analysis for hazardous chemical accidents[J]. China Safety Science Journal, 2022, 32(11): 134-139.

图/表 8

表1

图1

图2

图3

表2

事故类型与人为因素关联规则

关联规则	S	C	L	关联规则	S	C	L
物料投放量/速度不合理 $⇒$ 爆炸	0.081	0.875	1.456	物料/气体投入错误 $⇒$ 火灾	0.070	0.500	2.106
使用物具过程产生火花 $⇒$ 爆炸	0.146	0.862	1.434	非法生产、销售和使用危化品 $⇒$ 火灾	0.141	0.393	1.655
物料/气体投入错误 $⇒$ 爆炸	0.070	0.857	1.426	发现隐患未及时上报/未处理 $⇒$ 火灾	0.136	0.370	1.560
温度调控不当 $⇒$ 爆炸	0.182	0.833	1.387	使用物具过程产生火花 $⇒$ 火灾	0.146	0.345	1.453
违规动火作业 $⇒$ 爆炸	0.167	0.818	1.361	违规动火作业 $⇒$ 火灾	0.167	0.303	1.277
盲目施救 $⇒$ 中毒窒息	0.202	1.000	2.870	非法生产、销售和使用危化品 $⇒$ 泄漏	0.141	0.393	1.255
空气吹扫与置换未进行/ 量少 $⇒$ 中毒窒息	0.172	0.676	1.941	工艺装置阀门操作不当 $⇒$ 泄漏	0.136	0.370	1.183
未佩戴防护用品 $⇒$ 中毒窒息	0.414	0.573	1.645	违规动火作业 $⇒$ 泄漏	0.166	0.364	1.161
作业前环境检查不到位 $⇒$ 中毒窒息	0.338	0.418	1.199	员工专业能力不足 $⇒$ 泄漏	0.354	0.343	1.095
废料/残渣处理不当 $⇒$ 中毒窒息	0.136	0.407	1.169	废料/残渣处理不当 $⇒$ 泄漏	0.136	0.333	1.065

表2

表3

事故发生时间、月份与事故类型关联规则

关联规则	S	C	L	关联规则	S	C	L
A2 $⇒$ 火灾	0.131	0.346	1.458	A5 $⇒$ 泄漏	0.167	0.364	1.161
B2 $⇒$ 火灾	0.263	0.385	1.620	B2 $⇒$ 泄漏	0.242	0.396	1.264
A2 $⇒$ 中毒窒息	0.111	0.455	1.304	A3 $⇒$ 爆炸	0.131	0.731	1.216
B3 $⇒$ 中毒窒息	0.242	0.438	1.255	B4 $⇒$ 爆炸	0.227	0.644	1.072

表3

图4

图5

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数值型	布尔型	编号	数值型	布尔型	编号
7:00—12:00	上午	A1	3、4、5	春	B1
12:00—15:00	中午	A2	6、7、8	夏	B2
15:00—18:00	下午	A3	9、10、11	秋	B3
18:00—22:00	晚上	A4	12、1、2	冬	B4
22:00—7:00	凌晨	A5