基于H-OWA算子和投影寻踪的地铁站水灾安全韧性评估

doi:10.16265/j.cnki.issn1003-3033.2023.04.0671

中国安全科学学报 ›› 2023, Vol. 33 ›› Issue (4): 148-154.doi: 10.16265/j.cnki.issn1003-3033.2023.04.0671

基于H-OWA算子和投影寻踪的地铁站水灾安全韧性评估

陈娜¹(), 郭浩然¹(), 张志鹏², 赵军¹

¹ 郑州大学力学与安全工程学院,河南郑州 450001
² 郑州地铁集团有限公司, 河南郑州 450000

收稿日期:2022-11-12 修回日期:2023-02-11 出版日期:2023-04-28
作者简介:
陈娜 (1981—),女,河南南阳人,博士,副教授,硕士生导师,主要从事应急管理、安全人机等方面的研究。E-mail: nchen@zzu.edu.cn。
郭浩然 (1998—),男,安徽合肥人,硕士研究生,研究方向为安全评估、应急疏散。E-mail: g_haoran@163.com。
张志鹏工程师
赵军教授
基金资助:
教育部创新团队支持计划项目(IRT_16R67); 河南省自然科学基金资助(182300410142); 郑州大学基础研究培育基金资助(JC21532027); 中国职业安全健康协会创新创业项目(CXCY-2021-01)

Evaluation of subway station flood safety resilience based on H-OWA operator and projection pursuit

CHEN Na¹(), GUO Haoran¹(), ZHANG Zhipeng², ZHAO Jun¹

¹ School of Mechanics and Safety Engineering, Zhengzhou University, Zhengzhou Henan 450001, China
² Zhengzhou Metro Group Co., Ltd., Zhengzhou Henan 450000, China

Received:2022-11-12 Revised:2023-02-11 Published:2023-04-28

摘要/Abstract

摘要：

为提升地铁运营系统的可靠性,基于韧性理论,从抵抗能力、适应能力和恢复能力3个方面,提出包含20个韧性指标的地铁站水灾安全韧性指标体系;采用H-OWA算子修正层次分析法(AHP)的主观误差,再结合投影寻踪模型(PPM),确定韧性指标体系综合权重;应用疏散模拟软件Massmotion获取地铁站应急疏散时间作为指标数据,并基于模糊综合评价(FCE)建立地铁站水灾安全韧性评估模型,以郑州紫荆山地铁站为例进行模型应用。研究结果表明:该安全韧性评估模型通过获取与处理目标地铁站指标数据,可确定地铁站水灾安全韧性等级;实例紫荆山地铁站水灾安全韧性等级为较高韧性(Ⅳ),且评估结果与地铁站实际情况相符;出入口可防御水位标高指标对地铁站水灾安全韧性影响最大。

关键词: H-OWA算子, 投影寻踪模型(PPM), 地铁站水灾, 安全韧性评估, 模糊综合评价(FCE)

Abstract:

In order to improve the reliability of subway operation system, based on the resilience theory, a flood safety resilience index system of subway station flood including 20 resilience indexes was proposed from three aspects: resistance ability, adaptability and recovery ability. The H-OWA operator was used to correct the subjective error of Analytic Hierarchy Process (AHP), and PPM was used to determine the comprehensive weight of the resilience index system. The evacuation simulation software Massmotion was used to obtain the emergency evacuation time of the subway station as the index data, and the flood safety resilience evaluation model of the subway station was established based on FCE. The model was applied to Zijingshan subway station in Zhengzhou. The results show that the safety resilience evaluation model can determine the flood safety resilience level of subway station by obtaining and processing the target subway station index data. The flood safety resilience level of Zijing Mountain subway station is a bit high resilience (Ⅳ), and the evaluation results are consistent with the actual situation of subway station. The defensive water level elevation index of the entrance and exit has the greatest impact on the flood safety resilience of the subway station.

Key words: H-OWA operator, projection pursuit model(PPM), subway station flood, safety resilience assessment, fuzzy comprehensive evaluation(FCE)

陈娜, 郭浩然, 张志鹏, 赵军. 基于H-OWA算子和投影寻踪的地铁站水灾安全韧性评估[J]. 中国安全科学学报, 2023, 33(4): 148-154.

CHEN Na, GUO Haoran, ZHANG Zhipeng, ZHAO Jun. Evaluation of subway station flood safety resilience based on H-OWA operator and projection pursuit[J]. China Safety Science Journal, 2023, 33(4): 148-154.

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评价指标	单位	低韧性(Ⅰ)	较低韧性(Ⅱ)	中韧性(Ⅲ)	较高韧性(Ⅳ)	高韧性(Ⅴ)
C₁	个	[2,4)	[4,6)	[6,8)	[8,10)	[10,20]
C₂	m	(0,4.0)	[4.0,6.0)	[6.0,8.0)	[8.0,10.0)	[10.0,15.0]
C₃	cm	[30,60)	[60,90)	[90,120)	[120,150)	[150,180]
C₄	cm	[0,30)	[30,60)	[60,90)	[90,120)	[120,150]
C₅	cm	(0,10)	[10,15)	[15,20)	[20,25)	[25,40]
C₆	m	[50,60]	[40,50)	[30,40)	[20,30)	[10,20)
C₇	个	(0,4)	[4,6)	[6,8)	[8,10)	[10,12]
C₈	—	[0,60)	[60,70)	[70,80)	[80,90)	[90,100]
C₉	—	[0,60)	[60,70)	[70,80)	[80,90)	[90,100]
C₁₀	—	[0,60)	[60,70)	[70,80)	[80,90)	[90,100]
C₁₁	—	[0,60)	[60,70)	[70,80)	[80,90)	[90,100]
C₁₂	s	[360,600]	[300,360)	[240,300)	[180,240)	(0,180)
C₁₃	m	[300,500]	[250,300)	[200,250)	[150,200)	(0,150)
C₁₄	—	[0,60)	[60,70)	[70,80)	[80,90)	[90,100]
C₁₅	—	[0,60)	[60,70)	[70,80)	[80,90)	[90,100]
C₁₆	—	[0,60)	[60,70)	[70,80)	[80,90)	[90,100]
C₁₇	次/a	[0,3)	[3,6)	[6,9)	[9,12)	[12,24]
C₁₈	km	[5.0,10]	[4.0,5.0)	[3.0,4.0)	[2.0,3.0)	(0,2.0)
C₁₉	万元	[0,5)	[5,10)	[10,15)	[15,20)	[20,50]
C₂₀	a/次	[8,10]	[6,8)	[4,6)	[2,4)	(0,2)

基于H-OWA算子和投影寻踪的地铁站水灾安全韧性评估

Evaluation of subway station flood safety resilience based on H-OWA operator and projection pursuit

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