中国安全科学学报 ›› 2023, Vol. 33 ›› Issue (12): 148-159.doi: 10.16265/j.cnki.issn1003-3033.2023.12.0626

• 公共安全 • 上一篇    下一篇

考虑灰色攻击的多制式区域轨道交通网络韧性评估

马飞1(), 苟慧艳1, 杨梦楠2, 刘擎1, 委笑琳1, 敖誉芸1   

  1. 1 长安大学 经济与管理学院,陕西 西安 710064
    2 西安市交通发展研究中心,陕西 西安710082
  • 收稿日期:2023-06-03 修回日期:2023-09-15 出版日期:2023-12-28
  • 作者简介:

    马飞 (1979—),男,陕西咸阳人,博士,教授,主要从事城市交通基础设施韧性等方面的研究。E-mail:

  • 基金资助:
    国家自然科学基金资助(72104034); 陕西省自然科学基础研究计划项目(2022JM-423); 西安市社会科学规划基金重大项目资助(211423220227)

Resilience assessment of multi-modal regional rail transit networks considering grey attack

MA Fei1(), GOU Huiyan1, YANG Mengnan2, LIU Qing1, WEI Xiaolin1, AO Yuyun1   

  1. 1 School of Economics and Management, Chang'an University, Xi'an Shaanxi 710064, China
    2 Xi'an Traffic Development Research Center, Xi'an Shaanxi 710082, China
  • Received:2023-06-03 Revised:2023-09-15 Published:2023-12-28

摘要:

为有效刻画多制式区域轨道交通(MRRT)网络,提高其网络韧性评估的准确性,依据MRRT评估系统内不同子网络间的协同工作关系以及运输服务特征,基于复杂网络理论构建MRRT相依网络模型;兼顾网络拓扑结构和服务质量,从抵抗能力、吸收能力、缓冲能力和恢复能力4个维度构建网络韧性评估指标,改进了基于引力模型识别其关键站点的方法;因MRRT网络复杂度高,其遭受突发事件扰动的潜在攻击信息具有灰色特征,故使用Matlab模拟不同信息精确度α下的灰色攻击策略,探究α对MRRT相依网络韧性的影响。结果表明:MRRT相依网络具有无标度网络特征;基于引力模型识别关键站点,可提高网络节点关键性评价的准确性;降低灰色攻击的信息精确度α,可提高网络韧性,且α对网络韧性的影响存在阈值,当α (0.2,0.8)时,网络遭受攻击后的性能损失会随α的降低而减小,当α≥0.8 α≤0.2时,降低α并不会对网络韧性有显著影响。

关键词: 灰色信息攻击, 多制式区域轨道交通(MRRT), 网络韧性评估, 相依网络, 引力模型

Abstract:

In order to effectively describe the multi-modal regional rail transit network and improve the accuracy of its network resilience assessment, according to the coupling relationship between different sub-network layers and characteristics of transportation services, MRRT interdependent network model was constructed based on complex network theory. Considering the network topology and service quality, the network resilience measurement index was constructed from four dimensions: resistance ability, absorption ability, buffer ability and recovery ability, and the method of identifying its key stations based on gravity model was improved. Due to the high complexity of MRRT network, the potential attack information disturbed by emergencies had grey characteristics. Therefore, using Matlab to simulate the grey attack strategy under different information accuracy, the influence rule of the information accuracy of grey attack on the resilience of MRRT interdependent network was explored. The research shows that the interdependent network of MRRT has the characteristics of scale-free network. Identifying key stations evaluation index based on the gravity model can improve the accuracy of key evaluation of network nodes. Reducing the information accuracy α of grey attacks can improve network resilience, and there is a threshold for the impact of α on network resilience. When α∈(0.2,0.8), the performance loss of network after being attack decreases as the increase of information accuracy α. When α≥0.8∪α≤0.2, reducing the information accuracy α has no significant impact on network resilience.

Key words: grey information attack, multi-modal regional rail transit (MRRT), network resilience assessment, interdependent network, gravity model