地铁单向长通道低头族引发拥堵的干预决策模型

doi:10.16265/j.cnki.issn1003-3033.2024.07.1684

中国安全科学学报 ›› 2024, Vol. 34 ›› Issue (7): 186-193.doi: 10.16265/j.cnki.issn1003-3033.2024.07.1684

地铁单向长通道低头族引发拥堵的干预决策模型

王美玲¹^,²(), 胡成³^,^**(), 马峻²

¹ 中国科学技术信息研究所科学计量与评价研究中心,北京 100038
² 首都经济贸易大学管理工程学院,北京 100070
³ 北京市科学技术研究院城市安全与环境科学研究所,北京 100054

收稿日期:2024-01-15 修回日期:2024-04-19 出版日期:2024-07-28
通信作者:
^** 胡成(1977—),男,江苏东海人,博士,副研究员,主要从事人群安全、大型活动风险评估、旅游安全与应急管理等方面的研究。E-mail:hu_cheng@126.com。
作者简介:
王美玲 (1994—),女,内蒙古通辽人,博士,助理研究员,主要从事城市公共安全、科学计量与评价方面的研究。E-mail: wangml@istic.ac.cn。
马峻教授
基金资助:
国家自然科学基金资助(41977408); 国家自然科学基金资助(71471121); 北京市科学技术研究院创新培育项目(23CB008)

Intervention decision-making model for congestion caused by phubbers in one-way long subway passages

WANG Meiling¹^,²(), HU Cheng³^,^**(), MA Jun²

¹ Center for Scientometrics and Evaluation, Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China, Beijing 100038, China
² School of Management Engineering, Capital University of Economics and Business, Beijing 100070, China
³ Institute of Urban Safety and Environmental Science, Beijing Academy of Science and Technology, Beijing 100054, China

Received:2024-01-15 Revised:2024-04-19 Published:2024-07-28

摘要/Abstract

摘要：

为解决地铁等公共场所封闭性单向长通道人群移动中存在大量低头族而引发的人群拥堵问题,提出可计算干预临界值的干预模型。首先开展试验,分析封闭性单向长通道内低头族和正常行走人群行为特征;然后采用不同分布函数描述低头族和正常行走人群行为状态的方法,建立人群小尺度行为模型;最后以低头族比例和人群密度建立大尺度拥堵干预决策模型,并以北京某地铁单向长通道为例,验证计算乘客的密度值与低头族比例关系临界值。结果表明:低头族行为特征主要表现为慢速跟随,正常行走人员行为特征主要表现为有机会就提速超越;仿真计算得出乘客的密度值与低头族比例关系临界值,并绘制临界曲线,低于临界曲线的值域属低风险区,人群密度与低头族比例的值在此区域内时无需进行干预;高于临界曲线的值域为高风险区,可能产生严重的拥堵,需采取干预措施。

关键词: 单向长通道, 低头族, 拥堵, 干预决策模型, 人群聚集风险

Abstract:

To solve the crowd congestion problems caused by a large number of phubbers in enclosed one-way long passages in public spaces such as the subway, an intervention model was proposed to calculate the intervention critical value. Experiments were performed to analyze the behavioral characteristics of phubbers and normal pedestrians in enclosed one-way long corridors. Then, different distribution functions were used to propose a small-scale behavioral model. Furthermore, a large-scale congestion intervention decision-making model was proposed based on the proportion of phubbers and crowd density. Finally, the critical value curve between passenger density and the proportion of phubbers was validated against a one-way long passage in a Beijing subway station. The results indicated that behavioral characteristics of phubbers presented as slow following, while normal pedestrians tended to speed up and overtake whenever possible. The simulations calculated the critical value curve between the passenger's density and the phubber's proportion. If the calculated value was lower than the critical curve, it was a low-risk area without any intervention strategies. Otherwise, intervention strategies were required to avoid serious congestion.

Key words: one-way long subway passage, phubber, congestion, intervention decision-making model, crowd gathering risk

中图分类号:

X928.03事故预防与预测

王美玲, 胡成, 马峻. 地铁单向长通道低头族引发拥堵的干预决策模型[J]. 中国安全科学学报, 2024, 34(7): 186-193.

WANG Meiling, HU Cheng, MA Jun. Intervention decision-making model for congestion caused by phubbers in one-way long subway passages[J]. China Safety Science Journal, 2024, 34(7): 186-193.

图/表 6

图1

图2

图3

表1

速度转移概率密度汇总

个体类别	条件	速度转移概率
non-VASP	$v * < v -$	$A 11 v [f] (v * → v) = p 1 a δ (v 1 - v 1 a) + p 1 b δ (v 1 - v 1 b), p 1 a = α ε v -, p 1 b = 1 - α ε v -$
	$v * = v -$	$A 11 v [f] (v * → v) = p 1 c δ (v 1 - v 1 c) + p 1 d δ (v 1 - v 1 d)$ , $p 1 c = α ε v -, p 1 d = 1 - α ε v -$
	$v * > v -$	$A 11 v [f] (v * → v) = δ (v 1 - v 1 e)$
VASP	$v * < v -$	$A 22 v [f] (v * → v) = p 2 a δ (v 2 - v 2 a) + p 2 b δ (v 2 - v 2 b)$ , $p 2 a = ε v - (1 - γ), p 2 b = 1 - ε v - (1 - γ)$
	$v * = v -$	$A 22 v [f] (v * → v) = p 2 c δ (v 2 - v 2 c) + p 2 d δ (v 2 - v 2 d)$ , $p 2 d = ε v - (1 - γ), p 2 d = 1 - ε v - (1 - γ)$
	$v * > v -$	$A 22 v [f] (v * → v) = δ (v 2 - v 2 e)$

表1

图4

图5

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地铁单向长通道低头族引发拥堵的干预决策模型

Intervention decision-making model for congestion caused by phubbers in one-way long subway passages

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