事故灾难应急救援系统情景结构化表征研究:以煤矿事故救援为例

doi:10.16265/j.cnki.issn1003-3033.2026.02.1614

摘要/Abstract

摘要：

为规范事故灾难应急救援系统情景表征,提高应急救援过程中信息传递效率和决策科学化水平,应用文献研究和案例分析的方法,整合现有理论成果,从系统结构组成、组成部分间交互作用及时序演化过程3个维度,提取事故灾难应急救援系统的情景要素,明确各要素的内涵、外延、结构及功能,并构建数学模型,论证由当前状态和交互作用关系预测下一时刻状态的可行性。结果表明:所提出的情景要素体系与知识元理论框架相契合,能够系统化表征事故灾难应急救援系统的动态演化特征。

关键词: 事故灾难, 应急救援系统, 情景表征, 情景要素, 救援决策

Abstract:

To standardize the scenario representation of accident disaster emergency rescue systems, improve the efficiency of information transmission and the level of scientific decision-making in the emergency rescue process, literature research and case analysis methods were applied to integrate existing theoretical achievements. The scenario elements of the accident disaster emergency rescue system were extracted from three dimensions: system structure composition, interaction between components, and temporal evolution process. The connotation, extension, structure, and function of each element were clarified. A mathematical model was constructed to demonstrate the feasibility of predicting the next state based on the current state and interaction relationship. The results indicate that the proposed scenario element system is consistent with the knowledge element theory framework, and the dynamic evolution characteristics of the accident disaster emergency rescue system can be systematically characterized.

Key words: accidents disasters, emergency rescue system, scenario representation, scenario elements, rescue decision-making

中图分类号:

X928.04事故救护

国汉君, 张跃兵, 周爱桃. 事故灾难应急救援系统情景结构化表征研究:以煤矿事故救援为例[J]. 中国安全科学学报, 2026, 36(2): 172-179.

GUO Hanjun, ZHANG Yuebing, ZHOU Aitao. Research on scenario structured representation of accident disaster emergency rescue system:taking coal mine accident rescue as an example[J]. China Safety Science Journal, 2026, 36(2): 172-179.

图/表 3

表1

图1

表2

事故情景表征

情景要素	情景表征
结构组成	A(传送带与回程托辊摩擦导致托辊内积存粉煤着火引燃不阻燃胶带,胶带数量、性质、燃烧产物毒性,燃烧地点为井下2号大倾角输送带运煤上山),B(被困人员数量、位置分布、年龄情况,被困人员防护装备;风门等通风设施位置及特性),R(监测装备,决策人员知识水平和经验,被困人员自救,救护队救援,灭火等相关装备,压风自救器、氧气呼吸器等供给维护情况),E(巷道截面积、长度、形状,巷道壁岩体性质,风速风量)
交互作用关系	f_AB(人员中毒、高温灼伤、巷道顶板冒落、火风压), $f A E$ (高温和浓烟造成逃生和救援困难),f_RA(灭火、排烟), $f R B$ (搜救、顶板加固),f_RE(打通救援通道、提高能见度、降低环境温度、提供新鲜风流等),f_EA(风提供氧气、风带走烟气和热量、热量沿巷道岩体传播), $f E B$ 和f_ER(只能通过巷道进入灾害中心、高温无法靠近,浓烟阻挡视线等)
过程要素 (状态)	着火时间:2020年9月27日0时20分;A状态:燃烧程度、火势变化情况、其他可燃物情况;B状态:被困人员伤亡状况、巷道顶板围岩稳定性;R状态:救援队集结、受阻等随时间变化情况;E状态:温度分布及随时间变化情况,能见度及变化情况等

表2

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作者	情景构成要素
作者	结构组成	交互作用关系	时序演化过程
吴倩等^[6]	灾害体、受灾体、孕灾环境、抗灾体	—	—
姜卉^[7]	灾害体、受灾体、抗灾体	—	—
付磊等^[13]	致灾情景、救灾情景、承载情景	—	—
仲秋雁等^[8]	事件本身,引发事件要素,影响事件发展的要素, 事件作用对象要素(承灾体)	—	—
李建伟等^[9]	事件、载体	活动、规则	—
盛勇等^[10]	致灾因子、承灾载体	应急决策、联系与作用方式	—
王红卫等^[11]	情景事件、承灾体、应急组织、应急资源、应急环境	处置行动	—
李小平等^[2]	致灾因子、承灾体、孕灾环境	情景驱动要素	情景发展态势