Abstract: ased on the method of system analysis and the probability theory concerned, using the chart of network function of the system, provided that the destruction probability of each unit under certain earthquake intensity is known, the predi ction of seismic disaster is worked out. Then, analysis is done on the weak link of the system to obtain the scientific and reasonable criteria for anti-seismi c reinforcement. This method makes the prediction of seismic disaster and anti- seismic reinforcement for overall industrial enterprises more scientific, feasib le and easy-to-operate.