中国安全科学学报 ›› 2017, Vol. 27 ›› Issue (7): 24-29.doi: 10.16265/j.cnki.issn1003-3033.2017.07.005

• 安全系统学 • 上一篇    下一篇

高速公路弯道雨天可能交通事故的CA模型仿真

庞明宝 教授, 任泊宁   

  1. 河北工业大学 土木与交通学院,天津 300401
  • 收稿日期:2017-03-13 修回日期:2017-05-15 发布日期:2020-11-26
  • 作者简介:庞明宝 (1966—), 男, 河南西峡人, 博士,教授,主要从事智能交通系统、交通系统工程等方面的研究。E-mail:pmbpgy@sohu.com。任泊宁 (1992—), 男, 满族,河北承德人, 硕士研究生, 研究方向为交通运输规划与管理。E-mail:rbn0525@163.com。
  • 基金资助:
    国家自然科学基金资助(50478088); 河北省自然科学基金资助(E2015202266)。

Simulation of possible traffic accident in rainy weather on freeway curve using CA model

PANG Mingbao, REN Boning   

  1. School of Civil and Transportation, Hebei University of Technology, Tianjin 300401, China
  • Received:2017-03-13 Revised:2017-05-15 Published:2020-11-26

摘要: 为给交通管控提供决策支持以降低道路事故率,在对雨天高速公路弯道车辆受力和可能交通事故分析的基础上,建立一个雨天可能发生事故的单向双车道元胞自动机(CA)模型。通过仿真试验和实际统计事故率的比较对模型予以初步验证。对不同可变速度限制(VSL)及道路几何线性参数值的交通流非线性行为进行仿真和事故概率计算。结果表明:VSL是雨天降低事故概率非常有效的方式,特别在弯道长度大和弯道半径小的路段愈加明显;应依据所提出的CA模型的仿真结果和具体道路实际,针对不同的降雨强度设置不同的速度限制值,以保证交通安全。

关键词: 交通事故概率, 元胞自动机(CA)模型, 交通仿真, 雨天, 高速公路弯道

Abstract: The research paper was aimed at reducing traffic accident probability and providing decision support to traffic management and control. After analyzing vehicle force and traffic accident on freeway curve in rainy weather, a CA simulation model was built for one-way two-lane on a rainy day with the possible occurrence of traffic accidents. The model was preliminarily validated by comparing the accident rates obtained by simulation experiments and that in actual statistics. The nonlinear behaviors of traffic flow were discussed and the accident probabilities were calculated via the simulation experiments by setting the different values of variable speed limits (VSL) and road geometric linear parameters. The results of the example show that VSL is a very effective measurein reducing traffic accident probability, particularly in sections with a long curve length and a small curve bend radius. The different speed upper limit values should be set for different rainfall intensities according to simulation results of the proposed CA model and the concrete road parameters.

Key words: traffic accident probability, cellular automaton (CA) model, traffic simulation, rain weather, freeway curve

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