基于DS证据-后悔理论的煤矿安全投入案例决策研究

doi:10.16265/j.cnki.issn1003-3033.2024.12.0429

摘要/Abstract

摘要：

为实现更全面有效的煤矿安全投入,针对决策者心理行为因素对安全投入决策的影响问题,建立后悔理论-案例决策理论(CBDT)安全投入决策模型;通过分析CBDT在煤矿安全投入中的适用性,从安全投入方案和安全产出2个方面建立安全投入决策指标体系,基于改进的DS证据理论,并融合专家评价,计算各指标的权重;在CBDT的视角下,基于后悔理论,计算得到各个方案的综合感知效用,依据综合感知效用大小排序,选择最优煤矿安全投入方案。结果表明:决策者在实施安全投入的过程中,更注重安全设施投入和安全技术投入,会尽量规避安全产出不理想的安全投入方案;该模型以历史安全投入案例为依据,并结合决策者的主观心理,有助于选择出最优安全投入方案,使安全投入决策更加客观科学。

关键词: DS证据理论, 后悔理论, 煤矿安全投入, 案例决策理论(CBDT), 决策者

Abstract:

In order to achieve a more comprehensive and effective investment in coal mine safety, aiming at the influence of psychological and behavioral factors of decision makers on safety input decisions, a regret theory-CBDT safety input decision model was established. By analyzing the applicability of CBDT in coal mine safety input, safety input decision-making index system was established from two aspects of safety input and safety output, based on improved DS evidence theory and the evaluation of experts, and the weights of each indicator were calculated. In the CBDT perspective, based on regret theory, the comprehensive perceived utility of each scheme was calculated, and the optimal safety investment scheme was selected according to the comprehensive perceived utility. The result shows that in the process of safety input, policymakers pay more attention to safety facilities and safety technology input, and policymakers will try to avoid safety input schemes with unsatisfactory safety output. The model is based on historical safety investment cases and combines the subjective psychology of decision-makers, it helps select the optimal safety input scheme, makes safety investment decision-making more objective and scientific.

Key words: Dempster-Shafer(DS) evidence theory, regret theory, coal mine safety input, cased-based decision theory(CBDT), policymaker

中图分类号:

X915.4安全经济学

姜福川, 张思宇, 张国庆, 牛悦, 李梦林, 刘培舜. 基于DS证据-后悔理论的煤矿安全投入案例决策研究[J]. 中国安全科学学报, 2024, 34(12): 16-23.

JIANG Fuchuan, ZHANG Siyu, ZHANG Guoqing, NIU Yue, LI Menglin, LIU Peishun. Case decision study of coal mine safety input based on DS evidence-regret theory[J]. China Safety Science Journal, 2024, 34(12): 16-23.

图/表 9

图1

图2

表1

煤矿安全投入备选方案

备选方案	安全管理投入比例	安全技术投入比例	安全教育投入比例	安全设施投入比例
1( $T 01$ )	0.156 0	0.452 6	0.098 3	0.293 1
2( $T 02$ )	0.131 1	0.558 7	0.091 0	0.219 2
3( $T 03$ )	0.120 8	0.526 4	0.109 9	0.242 9
4( $T 04$ )	0.145 8	0.479 6	0.106 2	0.268 4

表1

表2

历史安全投入比例及安全产出指标信息

年份	安全管理投入比例	安全技术投入比例	安全教育投入比例	安全设施投入比例	事故经济损失/万元	煤炭产量/ 万t
2012(T₁)	0.109 9	0.480 2	0.092 1	0.317 8	285.3	140
2013(T₂)	0.129 7	0.509 3	0.096 1	0.264 9	266.4	157
2014(T₃)	0.123 8	0.567 2	0.091 8	0.217 2	316.5	143
2015(T₄)	0.151 1	0.413 3	0.112 7	0.322 9	352.3	145
2016(T₅)	0.142 1	0.458 2	0.115 5	0.284 2	275.2	130
2017(T₆)	0.154 0	0.447 8	0.097 3	0.301 0	223.4	142
2018(T₇)	0.135 2	0.480 6	0.095 9	0.288 3	324.0	120
2019(T₈)	0.132 2	0.487 2	0.103 6	0.277 7	213.0	100
2020(T₉)	0.113 3	0.541 2	0.099 3	0.246 2	384.4	110
2021( $T 1 0$ )	0.123 2	0.390 0	0.125 5	0.361 3	303	125
2022( $T 1 1$ )	0.131 5	0.450 2	0.098 3	0.320 1	251	130
2023( $T 1 2$ )	0.118 0	0.525 1	0.089 6	0.267 4	306.4	125

表2

表3

表4

安全投入三级指标评价结果

属性	专家1	专家2	专家3	专家4	专家5
C₁₁	{H₃}0.8;{H₄}0.2	{H₃},1	{H₃}0.5;{H₄}0.5	{H₃},0.6;{H₄},0.4	{H₂},0.2;{H₃}0.8
C₁₂	{H₄}0.5;{H₅}0.5	{H₄},0.6;{H₅}0.4	{H₄}0.6;{H₅}0.4	{H₄}0.4;{H₅}0.6	{H₅}1.0
C₁₃	{H₃}0.2;{H₄}0.8	{H₃}0.5;{H₄}0.5	{H₄}1.0	{H₃}0.3;{H₄}0.7	{H₄}0.5;{H₅}0.5
C₁₄	{H₃}0.5;{H₄}0.5	{H₃}1.0	{H₃}0.3;{H₄}0.7	{H₃}0.4;{H₄}0.6	{H₃}0.6;{H₄}0.4
C₁₅	{H₄}0.8;{H₅}0.2	{H₄}0.4;{H₅}0.6	{H₄}0.7;{H₅}0.3	{H₄}1.0	{H₄}0.5;{H₅}0.5
C₂₁	{H₃}0.7;{H₄}0.3	{H₄}1.0	{H₃}0.5;{H₄}0.5	{H₃}0.8;{H₄}0.2	{H₃}0.6;{H₄}0.4
C₂₂	{H₂}0.6;{H₃}0.4	{H₂}0.3;{H₃}0.7	{H₃}1.0	{H₃}0.8;{H₄}0.2	{H₂}0.2;{H₃}0.8
C₂₃	{H₂},1.0	{H₂}0.8;{H₃}0.2	{H₂}0.5;{H₃}0.5	{H₂}0.6;{H₃}0.4	{H₂}0.6;{H₃}0.4
C₂₄	{H₃}0.3;{H₄}0.7	{H₃}0.5;{H₄}0.5	{H₃}0.6;{H₄}0.4	{H₃}0.2;{H₄}0.8	{H₄}1.0
C₂₅	{H₂}0.5;{H₃}0.5	{H₂}0.6;{H₃}0.4	{H₂}0.4;{H₃}0.6	{H₃}1.0	{H₂}0.3;{H₃}0.7
C₃₁	{H₃}0.2;{H₄}0.8	{H₃}0.4;{H₄}0.6	{H₃}0.6;{H₄}0.4	{H₃}0.5;{H₄}0.5	{H₄}1.0
C₃₂	{H₃}0.5;{H₄}0.5	{H₃}0.8;{H₄}0.2	{H₃}1.0	{H₂}0.1;{H₃}0.9	{H₃}0.6;{H₄}0.4
C₃₃	{H₄}0.7;{H₅}0.3	{H₄}1.0	{H₄}0.6;{H₅}0.4	{H₄}0.8;{H₅}0.2	{H₄}0.5;{H₅}0.5
C₃₄	{H₄}0.6;{H₅}0.4	{H₄}0.5;{H₅}0.5	{H₅}1.0	{H₄}0.2;{H₅}0.8	{H₄}0.3;{H₅}0.7
C₄₁	{H₂}0.5;{H₃}0.5	{H₂}0.4;{H₃}0.6	{H₃}1.0	{H₂}0.7;{H₃}0.3	{H₂}0.6;{H₃}0.4
C₄₂	{H₁}0.2;{H₂}0.8	{H₂}1.0	{H₁}0.5;{H₂}0.5	{H₁}0.4;{H₂}0.6	{H₁}0.3;{H₂}0.7
C₄₃	{H₂}0.6;{H₃}0.4	{H₂}1.0	{H₂}0.5;{H₃}0.5	{H₂}0.7;{H₃}0.3	{H₂}0.4;{H₃}0.6
C₄₄	{H₁}1.0	{H₁}0.7;{H₂}0.3	{H₁}0.8;{H₂}0.2	{H₁}0.5;{H₂}0.5	{H₁}0.4;{H₂}0.6
C₄₅	{H₂}0.3;{H₃}0.7	{H₂}0.5;{H₃}0.5	{H₃}1.0	{H₃}0.8;{H₄}0.2	{H₂}0.2;{H₃}0.8
属性	专家6	专家7	专家8	专家9	专家10
C₁₁	{H₂}0.3;{H₃}0.7	{H₃}0.7;{H₄}0.3	{H₃}0.5;{H₄}0.5	{H₃}0.7;{H₄}0.3	{H₃}0.8;{H₄}0.2
C₁₂	{H₄}0.3;{H₅}0.7	{H₄}0.2;{H₅}0.8	{H₄}0.4;{H₅}0.6	{H₄}0.5;{H₅}0.5	{H₄}0.7;{H₅}0.3
C₁₃	{H₄}0.7;{H₅}0.3	{H₃}0.4;{H₄}0.6	{H₃}0.6;{H₄}0.4	{H₄}0.8;{H₅}0.2	{H₄}0.8;{H₅}0.2
C₁₄	{H₃}0.7;{H₄}0.3	{H₃}0.4;{H₄}0.6	{H₃}0.6;{H₄}0.4	{H₃}0.4;{H₄}0.6	{H₃}0.8;{H₄}0.2
C₁₅	{H₄}0.6;{H₅}0.4	{H₄}0.8;{H₅}0.2	{H₄}0.8;{H₅}0.2	{H₄}0.7;{H₅}0.3	{H₄}0.5;{H₅}0.5
C₂₁	{H₃}0.7;{H₄}0.3	{H₃}0.6;{H₄}0.4	{H₃}0.4;{H₄}0.6	{H₃}0.3;{H₄}0.7	{H₃}0.5;{H₄}0.5
C₂₂	{H₂}0.3;{H₃}0.7	{H₂}0.2;{H₃}0.8	{H₂}0.4;{H₃}0.6	{H₃}0.8;{H₄}0.2	{H₂}0.3;{H₃}0.7
C₂₃	{H₂}0.7;{H₃}0.3	{H₂}0.8;{H₃}0.2	{H₂}0.7;{H₃}0.3	{H₂}0.5;{H₃}0.5	{H₂}0.8;{H₃}0.2
C₂₄	{H₃}0.2;{H₄}0.8	{H₃}0.5;{H₄}0.5	{H₃}0.4;{H₄}0.6	{H₃}0.2;{H₄}0.8	{H₃}0.3;{H₄}0.7
C₂₅	{H₂}0.7;{H₃}0.3	{H₂}0.4;{H₃}0.6	{H₂}0.4;{H₃}0.6	{H₂}0.1;{H₃}0.9	{H₂}0.2;{H₃}0.8
C₃₁	{H₃}0.3;{H₄}0.7	{H₃}0.2;{H₄}0.8	{H₃}0.5;{H₄}0.5	{H₃}0.3;{H₄}0.7	{H₃}0.4;{H₄}0.6
C₃₂	{H₂}0.2;{H₃}0.8	{H₃}0.7;{H₄}0.3	{H₂}0.5;{H₃}0.5	{H₂}0.6;{H₃}0.4	{H₂}0.3;{H₃}0.7
C₃₃	{H₄}0.6;{H₅}0.4	{H₄}0.7;{H₅}0.3	{H₄}0.8;{H₅}0.2	{H₄}0.7;{H₅}0.3	{H₄}0.6;{H₅}0.4
C₃₄	{H₄}0.2;{H₅}0.8	{H₄}0.1;{H₅}0.9	{H₄}0.4;{H₅}0.6	{H₄}0.5;{H₅}0.5	{H₄}0.4;{H₅}0.6
C₄₁	{H₂}0.3;{H₃}0.7	{H₂}0.4;{H₃}0.6	{H₂}0.6;{H₃}0.4	{H₂}0.3;{H₃}0.7	{H₂}0.6;{H₃}0.4
C₄₂	{H₁}0.4;{H₂}0.6	{H₁}0.2;{H₂}0.8	{H₁}0.5;{H₂}0.5	{H₁}0.1{H₂}0.9	{H₁}0.3;{H₂}0.7
C₄₃	{H₂}0.8;{H₃}0.2	{H₂}0.5;{H₃}0.5	{H₂}0.8;{H₃}0.2	{H₂}0.6;{H₃}0.4	{H₂}0.6;{H₃}0.4
C₄₄	{H₁}0.6;{H₂}0.4	{H₁}0.6;{H₂}0.4	{H₁}0.7;{H₂}0.3	{H₁}0.8;{H₂}0.2	{H₁}0.6;{H₂}0.4
C₄₅	{H₂}0.2;{H₃}0.8	{H₂}0.5;{H₃}0.5	{H₂}0.3;{H₃}0.7	{H₃}0.8;{H₄}0.2	{H₂}0.2;{H₃}0.8

表4

表5

表6

历史安全投入比例方案与备选方案相似度

指标	T₁	T₂	T₃	T₄	T₅	T₆	T₇	T₈	T₉	T₁₀	T₁₁	T₁₂
$A 01$	0.488 7	0.504 4	0.168 3	0.549 8	0.694 1	0.904 2	0.733 6	0.603 4	0.316 9	0.147 7	0.688 1	0.384 7
$A 02$	0.363 5	0.687 2	0.873 7	0.150 0	0.340 1	0.304 4	0.544 8	0.571 5	0.621 4	0.115 4	0.468 0	0.611 3
$A 03$	0.361 0	0.635 2	0.585 6	0.264 1	0.449 5	0.261 9	0.445 5	0.585 4	0.756 3	0.217 3	0.344 0	0.679 7
$A 04$	0.405 3	0.625 2	0.208 6	0.416 3	0.682 1	0.540 3	0.682 2	0.774 7	0.394 8	0.055 6	0.443 6	0.483 0

表6

表7

安全产出结果感知效用

指标	T₁	T₂	T₃	T₄	T₅	T₆	T₇	T₈	T₉	T₁₁	T₁₂
$U r 1$	0.222 1	0.416 6	—	0.065 3	0.246 2	0.763 6	-0.096 6	0.149 6	—	0.345 2	—
$U r 2$	—	0.573 3	0.281 5	—	—	—	-0.065 1	0.1477	-0.461 8	—	0.051 7
$U r 3$	—	0.530 0	0.188 7	—	—	—	—	0.151 3	-0.562 0	—	0.057 5
$U r 4$	—	0.516 4	—	—	0.242 0	0.456 3	-0.089 8	0.192 1	—	—	0.035 4

表7

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指标	融合评价	评估结果	权重
B₁	{H₃}0.640 3;{H₄}0.359 6;{H₅}0.000 1	0.428 0	0.213 1
B₂	{H₂}0.052 0;{H₃}0.943 5;{H₄}0.004 5	0.509 5	0.253 7
B₃	{H₃}0.374 2;{H₄}0.625 1;{H₅}0.000 7	0.374 7	0.186 5
B₄	{H₁}0.051 6;{H₂}0.878 6;{H₃}0.069 8	0.696 4	0.346 7