决策者风险感知对洪涝灾害应急物资调配的影响

doi:10.16265/j.cnki.issn1003-3033.2026.01.0536

摘要/Abstract

摘要：

为合理制定洪涝灾害应急物资调配方案,利用前景理论刻画决策者风险感知程度,界定“救灾中心-灾点”2层决策者风险感知参考点;采用系统动力学(SD)方法构建决策者风险感知对洪涝灾害应急物资调配影响的仿真模型;以2023年涿州洪灾为例,验证模型的有效性,揭示灾点满足率和供需不平衡程度受“救灾中心-灾点”决策者风险感知水平的影响机制;阐明决策者风险感知对洪涝灾害应急物资调配的影响机制。研究结果表明:灾点和救灾中心的决策者风险感知水平对灾点满足率和供需不平衡程度呈现边际递增效应;不同物资丰富程度下灾点的满足率差异会随着决策者风险感知水平趋向于悲观而缩小。

关键词: 决策者, 风险感知, 洪涝灾害, 应急物资调配, 系统动力学(SD), 前景理论

Abstract:

To develop reasonable emergency material allocation plans for flood disasters, prospect theory was used to characterize the risk perception levels of decision-makers. The reference points for the risk perception of "disaster relief center-disaster site" two-tier decision-makers were defined. A simulation model was constructed using system dynamics to examine the impact of decision-makers' risk perception on the allocation of emergency supplies for flood disasters. The model's validity was verified with case study of 2023 Zhuozhou flood. The study revealed that satisfaction rate at disaster sites and degree of supply-demand imbalance were influenced by risk perception levels of two-tier decision-makers, with a curve representing these effects. The findings show that the risk perception levels of decision-makers at both disaster sites and relief centers have a marginal increasing effect on the disaster site satisfaction rate and supply-demand imbalance. Additionally, under different levels of material availability, the difference in satisfaction rates at disaster sites becomes smaller as decision-makers' risk perception becomes more pessimistic.

Key words: decision-maker, risk perception, flood disaster, emergency material allocation, system dynamics (SD), prospect theory

中图分类号:

X915.5

卢毅, 尚远望, 王宇航, 岳丹凤. 决策者风险感知对洪涝灾害应急物资调配的影响[J]. 中国安全科学学报, 2026, 36(1): 182-190.

LU Yi, SHANG Yuanwang, WANG Yuhang, YUE Danfeng. Impact of decision-makers' risk perception on emergency material allocation in flood disasters[J]. China Safety Science Journal, 2026, 36(1): 182-190.

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