基于累积前景理论的煤矿企业安全投入动态决策模型

doi:10.16265/j.cnki.issn1003-3033.2025.02.0426

摘要/Abstract

摘要：

为提升煤矿企业的安全生产水平、确保合理的安全投入比例,引用累积前景理论(CPT)方法,建立一种结合变异系数法改进的指标相关性的权重确定法(CRITIC)和CPT的动态安全投入决策模型。从安全投入和产出的角度构建评价指标体系,采用改进的CRITIC计算得到各指标的权重,并结合CPT计算出煤矿企业安全投入各方案的静态决策排序结果,在此基础上,动态性优化该结果,得到最终安全投入动态决策排序结果。结果表明:所构建的模型与多准则妥协解排序法(VIKOR)相比灵敏度更高;该模型考虑决策者的主观风险偏好对实际决策结果的影响,且时间因素能够反映研究期间内的动态累积水平,决策结果更为科学合理。

关键词: 累积前景理论(CPT), 安全投入, 动态决策, 指标体系, 煤矿企业

Abstract:

In order to improve the safety production level of coal mining enterprises and ensure a reasonable proportion of safety investment, the CPT method was introduced to establish a dynamic safety investment decision-making model that combined the criteria importance through intercriteria correlation(CRITIC) method improved by the coefficient of variation method and CPT. From the perspective of safety input and output, an evaluation index system was constructed, and the weights of each index were calculated by the improved CRITIC method. Combined with the CPT, the static decision-making ranking results of various safety investment schemes in coal mining enterprises were calculated, and on this basis, the results were dynamically optimized to obtain the final dynamic decision-making ranking results of safety investment. The study shows that the constructed model is reasonable and reliable with high sensitivity compared with VlseKriterijumska Optimizacija I Kompromisno Resenje (VIKOR) method. The model considers the influence of the decision maker's subjective risk preference on the actual decision-making results, and the time factor can reflect the dynamic accumulation level during the research period, so the decision-making results are more scientific and reasonable.

Key words: cumulative prospect theory (CPT), safety investment, dynamic decision-making, index system, coal mining enterprises

中图分类号:

X915.4安全经济学

姜福川, 牛悦, 张国庆, 张思宇, 刘培舜, 李梦林. 基于累积前景理论的煤矿企业安全投入动态决策模型[J]. 中国安全科学学报, 2025, 35(2): 73-80.

JIANG Fuchuan, NIU Yue, ZHANG Guoqing, ZHANG Siyu, LIU Peishun, LI Menglin. Dynamic decision-making model for safety investment in coal mining enterprises based on cumulative prospect theory[J]. China Safety Science Journal, 2025, 35(2): 73-80.

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年份	安全教育投入/万元	劳动保护投入/万元	安全技术投入/万元	安全管理投入/万元	安全信息投入/万元	事故损失/ 万元	原煤产量/ 万t
2012	349.0	465.4	1 820.2	416.5	629.2	285.3	140
2013	295.0	349.0	1 563.4	398.1	433.6	266.4	157
2014	286.4	327.6	1 769.1	386.2	318.2	316.5	143
2015	315.3	367.4	1 156.0	422.5	538.4	352.3	145
2016	354.6	427.0	1 406.4	436.0	465.4	275.2	130
2017	296.4	394.0	1 364.7	369.3	528.9	223.4	142
2018	273.5	385.3	1 370.0	385.4	438.7	324.0	120
2019	286.7	369.1	1 348.6	365.9	346.8	213.0	100
2020	328.8	326.4	1 792.8	375.4	479.5	384.4	110
2021	404.7	382.2	1 684.7	397.2	325.8	303.0	125
2022	302.5	406.4	1 596.5	404.8	377.3	251.0	130

年份	综合累积前景值v_i	排序	动态综合决策值Q_i	排序
2012	-1.614 4	11	-0.106 5	11
2013	-0.740 4	6	-0.051 9	5
2014	-0.403 0	2	-0.030 0	2
2015	-0.831 3	8	-0.065 8	6
2016	-1.005 5	10	-0.084 5	8
2017	-0.460 3	3	-0.041 1	3
2018	-0.489 6	4	-0.046 4	4
2019	0.437 9	1	0.044 1	1
2020	-0.851 6	9	-0.091 1	9
2021	-0.817 6	7	-0.092 9	10
2022	-0.608 9	5	-0.073 5	7

年份	CPT			VIKOR
年份	评价值	排序	灵敏度	评价值	排序	灵敏度
2012	-1.614 4	11	1.9203	0.054 6	11	0.081 9
2013	-0.740 4	6		0.607 5	6
2014	-0.403 0	2		0.904 0	2
2015	-0.831 3	8		0.548 9	7
2016	-1.005 5	10		0.344 4	9
2017	-0.460 3	3		0.846 4	3
2018	-0.489 6	4		0.417 3	8
2019	0.437 9	1		0.984 6	1
2020	-0.851 6	9		0.077 2	10
2021	-0.817 6	7		0.702 3	4
2022	-0.608 9	5		0.667 3	5