基于CN-SD的城市生命线Natech事件风险传导链路研究

doi:10.16265/j.cnki.issn1003-3033.2025.06.1727

摘要/Abstract

摘要：

城市生命线Natech事件是多风险、多主体耦合系统,为定性定量识别城市生命线Natech事件风险传导链路,首先,分析风险传导机制,城市生命线Natech事件同时具备自然灾害链与多米诺效应;然后,分析风险传导链路复杂性、动力学特征,构建城市生命线Natech事件风险传导链路复杂网络(CN)-系统动力学(SD)模型;最后,以全国十大自然灾害及报道为文本数据,量化风险路径、风险集聚、风险传导等CN指标,进而量化风险关联度及城市生命线脆弱性等SD指标,从而数值模拟城市生命线Natech事件风险传导速率及程度。结果表明:该模型能够定性与定量结合分析城市生命线Natech事件风险传导链路,能够可视化数值模拟自然灾害链情景下交通、电力、通信、供水等城市生命线技术事故多米诺效应风险传导速率与程度动态曲线。

关键词: 复杂网络(CN), 系统动力学(SD), 城市生命线, Natech事件, 风险传导链路

Abstract:

The urban lifeline Natech event is a multi-risk and multi-subject coupling system. To qualitatively and quantitatively identify the risk conduction chain of urban lifeline Natech events, first, the risk conduction mechanism was analyzed. Urban lifeline Natech events have both natural disaster chains and domino effects. Then, the complexity and dynamic characteristics of the risk conduction chain were analyzed, and a CN-SD model for the risk conduction chain of the urban lifeline Natech event was constructed. Finally, using the text data of "Top Ten Natural Disasters in China" and their reports, CN indicators such as risk path, risk aggregation, and risk conduction were quantified, and SD indicators such as risk correlation and urban lifeline vulnerability were quantified to numerically simulate the risk conduction rate and degree of urban lifeline Natech event. The results show that the model can qualitatively and quantitatively analyze the risk conduction chain of urban lifeline Natech event, and can visualize the dynamic curves of the domino effect risk conduction rate and degree of technical accidents in transportation, electricity, communication, water supply under natural disaster chain scenarios.

Key words: complex network (CN), system dynamics (SD), urban lifeline, Natech event, risk conduction chain

中图分类号:

X915.2安全社会学

李世丰, 尚煜. 基于CN-SD的城市生命线Natech事件风险传导链路研究[J]. 中国安全科学学报, 2025, 35(6): 200-208.

LI Shifeng, SHANG Yu. Research on risk conduction chain of urban lifeline Natech event based on CN-SD[J]. China Safety Science Journal, 2025, 35(6): 200-208.

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节点i	节点i 加权出度	节点i 聚类系数	节点j	节点j 加权入度	节点j 聚类系数	边介数	风险量峰值
暴雨	657	0.476 2	交通	1 066	0.306 3	0.283 4	181.200 1
排水	305	0.388 9	交通	1 066	0.306 3	0.286 9	127.707 9
通信	191	0.381 6	交通	1 066	0.306 3	0.430 1	171.782 5
滑坡	381	0.384 2	交通	1 066	0.306 3	0.285 8	135.153 7
洪涝	277	0.512 8	交通	1 066	0.306 3	0.284 4	133.258 9
大风	305	0.388 9	交通	1 066	0.306 3	0.284 2	126.506 0
电力	387	0.286 2	交通	1 066	0.306 3	0.574 7	251.302 1
雷电	88	0.489 0	通信	535	0.381 6	0.332 0	82.066 4

城市生命线	独立频次概率	共现频次概率	独立-共现概率	独立熵	同一熵	波动熵	脆弱性
交通	0.401 4	0.309 2	0.289 4	0.366 4	0.362 9	0.358 8	0.758 5
电力	0.381 7	0.329 9	0.288 3	0.367 6	0.365 9	0.358 6	0.762 2
供水	0.325 8	0.333 8	0.340 4	0.365 4	0.366 2	0.366 8	0.768 4
排水	0.314 9	0.361 8	0.323 3	0.363 9	0.367 8	0.365 1	0.766 9
通信	0.301 5	0.348 8	0.349 7	0.361 5	0.367 4	0.367 4	0.766 5
燃气	0.273 7	0.351 2	0.375 2	0.354 6	0.367 5	0.367 8	0.760 8
热力	0.205 0	0.303 8	0.491 2	0.324 9	0.361 9	0.349 2	0.711 8