燃气管网外腐蚀事故DBN模型

doi:10.16265/j.cnki.issn1003-3033.2023.09.2314

中国安全科学学报 ›› 2023, Vol. 33 ›› Issue (9): 227-236.doi: 10.16265/j.cnki.issn1003-3033.2023.09.2314

燃气管网外腐蚀事故DBN模型

李聪¹(), 徐子烜¹, 庄育锋², 杨锐³, 徐亚博⁴, 陈辰¹

¹ 中国矿业大学(北京) 应急管理与安全工程学院,北京 100083
² 北京邮电大学现代邮政学院,北京 100048
³ 清华大学工程物理系,北京 100084
⁴ 北京市科学技术研究院城市安全与环境科学研究所安全风险与防灾减灾研究中心,北京 100054

收稿日期:2023-02-20 修回日期:2023-05-22 出版日期:2023-10-30

作者简介:

李聪 (1991—),男,安徽淮南人,博士,讲师,主要从事燃气管网泄漏及火灾爆炸机制、高原及航空器火灾动力学、森林火灾风险评估及灭火技术、低温燃料动力学及火行为等方面的研究。E-mail: lic2019@cumtb.edu.cn。

庄育锋教授

杨锐副研究员

徐亚博副研究员

基金资助:
国家自然科学基金资助(52304274); 国家重点研发计划项目(2021YFF0600403); 中央高校基本科研业务费专项资金资助(2023ZKPYAQ06); 中国矿业大学(北京)大学生创新训练项目(202212006)

DBN model of external corrosion accident in gas network system

LI Cong¹(), XU Zixuan¹, ZHUANG Yufeng², YANG Rui³, XU Yabo⁴, CHEN Chen¹

¹ School of Emergency Management and Safety Engineering, China University of Mining and Technology (Beijing), Beijing 100083, China
² School of Modern Post, Beijing University of Posts and Telecommunications, Beijing 100048, China
³ Department of Engineering Physics, Tsinghua University, Beijing 100084, China
⁴ Research Center of Safety Risk and Disaster Prevention and Reduction, Institute of Urban Safety and Environmental Science, Beijing Academy of Science and Technology, Beijing, 100054

Received:2023-02-20 Revised:2023-05-22 Published:2023-10-30

摘要/Abstract

摘要：

为明确燃气管网服役中后期外腐蚀事故致灾机制规律及维护措施的有效性,有针对性地预防燃气管网外腐蚀泄漏事故,利用复杂网络(CN)理论与动态贝叶斯网络(DBN)相结合的方法,提取外腐蚀事故要素及事故链,整理并构建外腐蚀事故凝聚网络;通过度值分析筛选事故关键要素,在此基础上,将参数学习及Leaky Noisy-or gate修正模型联合,构建燃气管网外腐蚀事故DBN;根据不同失效场景,得到各动态要素及维护措施对管网失效的影响特征。结果表明:不同事故要素对管网失效的影响呈现差异性和阶段性,其中,老化、事故积累、化学腐蚀在管道服役中后期对管网腐蚀穿孔和管道破裂有显著影响,压力循环则主导服役中期的管道破裂事故。通过CN拓扑分析,可实现从整体角度出发对事故要素重要度的辨识;通过DBN的构建分析,能获得事故要素对事故后果的动态影响。

关键词: 燃气管网, 外腐蚀事故, 动态贝叶斯网络(DBN), 复杂网络(CN), 管道破裂, 腐蚀穿孔

Abstract:

In order to understand the occurrence regularity and characteristics of external corrosion accidents in the middle and later period of pipeline operation and prevent external corrosion leakage accidents of gas pipeline network, an aggregation network of external corrosion accidents was organized and constructed by combining CN and DBN. The key factors of the accident were screened by degree analysis. On this basis, the parameter learning and Leaky Noisy-or gate correction model were combined to construct the DBN of external corrosion accidents of gas pipeline network. Finally, according to different failure scenarios, the influence characteristics of different dynamic elements on external corrosion accidents and the influence of maintenance measures on pipeline failure probability were obtained. The results show that the impacts of different disaster-causing elements on pipeline network failure are different and staged. Among them, aging, accident accumulation and chemical corrosion have significant impacts on the corrosion perforation and pipeline rupture in the middle and late service stages, while the pressure cycling dominates the pipeline rupture accident in the middle service stage. Through CN topology analysis, the importance of accident elements can be identified from the overall point of view. Through the construction analysis of DBN, the dynamic influence of accident factors on accident consequences can be obtained.

Key words: gas pipeline network, external corrosion accident, dynamic Bayesian network (DBN), complex networks (CN), pipe rupture, corrosion perforation

李聪, 徐子烜, 庄育锋, 杨锐, 徐亚博, 陈辰. 燃气管网外腐蚀事故DBN模型[J]. 中国安全科学学报, 2023, 33(9): 227-236.

LI Cong, XU Zixuan, ZHUANG Yufeng, YANG Rui, XU Yabo, CHEN Chen. DBN model of external corrosion accident in gas network system[J]. China Safety Science Journal, 2023, 33(9): 227-236.

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要素类型	要素名称及编号
基本要素	违章建设(1);老化(2);事故积累(3);临近排污管线(4);土壤湿度(5);不明明火(6);箱变压迫(7);不明应力(8);箱变元件放电(9);火花(10);排水暗渠交叉(11);土壤盐碱(12);化学腐蚀(13);海水倒灌(14);干湿循环(15);道路(16);震动(17);液压破碎锤修理(18);盖板暗渠(19);制造缺陷(20);临近饭店(21);临近排烟管(22);河道(23);接触铜水管(24);传感器失灵(25);周期性疲劳(26);压力监测异常(27);压力循环(28);延迟关闭(29);防腐层材料含水(30);纵向闪电焊(31);拉伸过载(32);操作压力过大(32);极化电位过低(33);细菌培养环境(34);临近集油管(35)
中间要素	相对密闭环境(36);燃气聚集(37);持续泄漏(38);应力集中(39);防腐层失效(40);阴极保护失效(41);腐蚀扩大(42);纵向焊缝失效(43);细菌腐蚀(44);冲蚀现象(45);电化学腐蚀(46);凹痕(47)
结果要素	管道腐蚀(48);腐蚀穿孔(49);爆炸(50);破坏附近店铺(51);管道点蚀(52);爆燃(53);管道破裂(54);二次燃烧(55);道路炸开(56);破坏厂区(57);破坏临时工棚(58);伤害行人(59);破坏居民楼(60);焊缝腐蚀(61);管道减薄(62)

编号	基本节点	节点状态	先验概率/%
X₁	极化电位过低	T	7.05
X₂	电磁干扰	T	11.60
X₃	老化	T	4.35
X₄	化学腐蚀	T	8.60
X₅	事故积累	T	4.23
X₆	土壤盐碱	T	7.05
X₇	土壤湿度	H	14.40
		M	53.94
		L	31.66
X₈	细菌培养环境	T	11.60
X₉	拉伸过载	T	7.05
X₁₀	压力循环	T	20.57
X₁₁	不明应力	T	0.68

土壤湿度	X₇=H		X₇=M		X₇=L
土壤盐碱	X₆=T	X₆=P	X₆=T	X₆=P	X₆=T	X₆=P
P(Y₃=T)/%	81	32	79	21	73	5

土壤湿度	X₇=H		X₇=M		X₇=L
土壤盐碱	X₆=T	X₆=P	X₆=T	X₆=P	X₆=T	X₆=P
P(Y₃=T)/%	82	35	79	25	73	5
P(Y₃=P)/%	18	65	21	75	27	95

序号	基本节点	节点状态	后验概率/%
1	土壤湿度X₇	H	28
2	事故积累X₅	T	20
3	化学腐蚀X₄	T	14
5	电磁干扰X₂	T	13

燃气管网外腐蚀事故DBN模型

DBN model of external corrosion accident in gas network system

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