复杂网络下船舶碰撞风险传播演化分析

doi:10.16265/j.cnki.issn1003-3033.2024.05.0684

中国安全科学学报 ›› 2024, Vol. 34 ›› Issue (5): 101-110.doi: 10.16265/j.cnki.issn1003-3033.2024.05.0684

复杂网络下船舶碰撞风险传播演化分析

乔卫亮¹(), 邓婉怡², 马晓雪²^,³, 韩冰⁴

1 大连海事大学轮机工程学院,辽宁大连 116026
2 大连海事大学航运经济与管理学院, 辽宁大连 116026
3 大连海事大学公共管理与人文艺术学院,辽宁大连 116026
4 上海船舶运输科学研究所有限公司,上海 200135

收稿日期:2023-11-15 修回日期:2024-02-19 出版日期:2024-07-12
作者简介:
乔卫亮 (1986—),男,山东济南人,博士,副教授,主要从事海洋运输操作性风险管控与战略性海运通道安全保障方面的研究。E-mail:xiaoqiao_fang@dlmu.edu.cn。
马晓雪教授
韩冰研究员
基金资助:
国家重点研发计划项目(2019YFB1600602); 博士后科学基金面上项目资助(2022M720626)

Evolutionary analysis of ship collision risk propagation under a complex network

QIAO Weiliang¹(), DENG Wanyi², MA Xiaoxue²^,³, HAN Bing⁴

1 Marine Engineering College, Dalian Maritime University, Dalian Liaoning 116026, China
2 School of Maritime Economics and Management, Dalian Maritime University, Dalian Liaoning 116026, China
3 Public Administration and Humanities College, Dalian Maritime University, Dalian Liaoning 116026, China
4 Shanghai Ship and Shipping Research Institute Co., Ltd., Shanghai 200135, China

Received:2023-11-15 Revised:2024-02-19 Published:2024-07-12

摘要/Abstract

摘要：

为提高海运业的安全水平,针对船舶碰撞风险事件链中的风险传播演化过程,利用事件树分析法(ETA),构造有向赋权复杂网络(CN),分析网络的拓扑结构;改进传统K-壳分解算法的适应性,提出网络节点绝对重要度计算方法;利用易感-感染-恢复(SIR)模型动态模拟风险在CN中的传播演化过程,研究在不同感染率与恢复率组合的情况下,复杂网络中目标节点的动态敏感性。结果表明:大约25%的风险事件在CN中相对不活跃,绝对重要度排前10%的风险事件均与事故直接原因无关;风险事件的敏感度与重要度并不完全保持一致,部分风险事件,即使不采用针对性措施,也难以触发严重后果或碰撞事故;船舶碰撞风险管控工作应认可直接致因的客观存在,重点关注碰撞风险的传播演化过程,在碰撞风险实施管控的过程中应采用差异化管控策略。

关键词: 复杂网络(CN), 船舶碰撞, 风险传播演化, K-壳分解算法, 易感-感染-恢复(SIR)模拟

Abstract:

The event tree analysis(ETA) was applied to the risk propagation process of the risk event chains involved in ship collisions for the purpose of developing directed weighted complex, which was then analyzed according to the topological structure. The traditional K-shell decomposition algorithm was adaptively improved to propose the calculation approach for the absolute criticality of the nodes in the CN. The SIR model was utilized to simulate the risk propagation process within the CN, based on which the dynamic sensitivity of the nodes within CN was analyzed under different cases of infection rates and recovery rates. It is pointed out that approximately 25% of the risk events are found as relatively non-active, and the top 10 critical risk events have no relation with the direct causes of the collision accidents. The sensitivity and criticality of risk events are not consistent at all times, and some risk events would not lead to serious consequences or accidents even though countermeasures are not taken. The existence of direct causes for the collision accidents should be acknowledged for the control and management of risk involved in the ship collisions, and much attention should be paid to the risk propagation process. As a result, differential strategies should be taken during the risk management and control to prevent the ship collisions.

Key words: complex network(CN), ship collision, risk propagation, K-shell decomposition algorithm, susceptible-infected-recovered (SIR) simulation

中图分类号:

X928.03事故预防与预测

乔卫亮, 邓婉怡, 马晓雪, 韩冰. 复杂网络下船舶碰撞风险传播演化分析[J]. 中国安全科学学报, 2024, 34(5): 101-110.

QIAO Weiliang, DENG Wanyi, MA Xiaoxue, HAN Bing. Evolutionary analysis of ship collision risk propagation under a complex network[J]. China Safety Science Journal, 2024, 34(5): 101-110.

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类别	代号	节点
顶事件	[22]	碰撞
风险传播演化事件	[2]	适任能力不足
	[3]	不清楚船舶位置
	[5]	船舶间沟通协调不畅
	[7]	船上缺少指导监督
	[8]	船舶作业时未穿戴好防护用品
	[9]	船舶偏移
	[10]	风浪
	[11]	过度依赖助航仪器
	[13]	忽视报警事件或警告
	[14]	驾驶台团队沟通协调不当
	[15]	教育培训不足
	[17]	锚泊位置选择不当
	[18]	能见度不良
	[20]	疲劳
	[21]	偏离既定航道/航线
	[23]	设备故障
	[25]	态势感知丧失
	[26]	通航环境复杂
	[27]	未重视可疑事件
	[28]	未尽到特殊情况下要求的戒备
	[29]	未及早地采取有效避碰行动
	[30]	未采用安全航速
	[31]	未配备设备资源
	[32]	未能对当时危险局面作出充分估计
	[33]	未按要求交接班
	[34]	未遵循海员通常做法/习惯航法
	[35]	未保持正规瞭望
	[36]	避碰行动时机不对/错过
	[37]	未充分利用助航仪器
	[38]	未正确显示号灯号型
	[39]	未充分履行停泊值班安全职责
	[40]	未通知船长
	[41]	未正确发出声响和灯光信号
	[42]	未遵守船舶在互见中的行动规则
	[43]	未控制好船位
	[44]	未遵守狭水道等特殊水域航行规则
	[45]	未充分估计当前环境对船舶操纵的影响
	[46]	未发现潜在风险
	[47]	未严格执行计划航线
	[48]	未遵守能见度不良下的行动规则
	[49]	未保持报警系统处于常开工作状态
	[53]	值班水手操舵失误
	[52]	应急处置措施不当
	[54]	走锚
	[56]	走锚靠泊失败/偏离正常泊位
顶事件	[22]	碰撞
事故触发事件	[1]	安全意识淡薄
	[4]	不熟悉航道环境
	[6]	船岸沟通不畅
	[12]	货物条件
	[16]	交通流密度大
	[19]	配员不足
	[24]	设备维护保养不足
	[50]	酗酒或值班作业前4h内饮酒
	[51]	压力
	[55]	盲目自信

前10位			后10位
层序号	节点代号	重要度	层序号	节点代号	重要度
40	[32]	1.000 0	1	[4]	0.214 4
39	[46]	0.942 1	2	[6]	0.214 4
38	[35]	0.942 1	3	[12]	0.214 4
37	[29]	0.942 1	4	[31]	0.214 4
36	[30]	0.884 3	5	[50]	0.214 4
35	[28]	0.797 5	6	[51]	0.214 4
34	[44]	0.710 7	7	[19]	0.214 4
33	[41]	0.703 7	8	[24]	0.214 5
32	[48]	0.674 1	9	[1]	0.214 7
31	[14]	2.106 8	10	[55]	0.240 3

复杂网络下船舶碰撞风险传播演化分析

Evolutionary analysis of ship collision risk propagation under a complex network

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