基于系统动力学的疏散人员竞争行为仿真分析

doi:10.16265/j.cnki.issn1003-3033.2024.11.0182

摘要/Abstract

摘要：

为量化在紧急疏散情境下人群心理变化以及竞争因素对疏散人群行为的影响,构建一个能够将人员疏散状态与竞争影响因素紧密结合的动态模型,该模型依据个体的行为特征,将人群划分为独立疏散人员、合作疏散人员和竞争疏散人员3类;深入分析疏散过程中影响个体决策的人员自身特性、社会引导机制以及环境作用因素这3大因素,并设定具体的参数值,采用系统动力学(SD)模型研究行人应急疏散行为特性。结果表明:随着环境能见度的降低和恐慌情绪的扩散,竞争疏散人群的比例显著上升;相反,当环境中存在积极的引导行为和帮助他人的行为时,这些正面因素能够有效减轻人群的紧张情绪,减少竞争行为。特别值得注意的是,当多因素耦合作用时,竞争强度越大,帮助行为的正面效应就越为显著。这说明在高度紧张的疏散环境中,积极的社会引导和互助行为对缓解竞争压力、提高疏散效率具有不可忽视的作用。

关键词: 系统动力学(SD), 疏散人员, 竞争行为, 疏散状态, 影响因素

Abstract:

In order to quantify the psychological changes of crowds and the impact of competitive factors on the behaviors of evacuees in emergency evacuation situations, a dynamic model was constructed that closely links the state of personnel psychological state with competitive influencing factors. In this model, the crowd was divided into three categories based on individual behavioral characteristics: independent evacuees, cooperative evacuees, and competitive evacuees. Three major factors influencing individual decision-making during the evacuation process were analyzed in depth: personal characteristics, social guidance mechanisms, and environmental factors. Specific parameter values were set, and SD were employed to simulate and study the behavioral characteristics of pedestrians during emergency evacuation. The research results indicate that as environmental visibility decreases and panic spreads, the proportion of competitive evacuees significantly increases. Conversely, when there are positive guiding behaviors and acts of helping others in the environment, these positive factors can effectively alleviate the crowd's anxiety and reduce competitive behaviors. Particularly noteworthy is that when multiple factors are coupled, the greater the competitive intensity, the more significant the positive effect of helping behaviors becomes. This shows that in highly stressful evacuation environments, positive social guidance and mutual assistance behaviors play a non-negligible role in relieving competitive pressure and improving evacuation efficiency.

Key words: system dynamics(SD), evacuees, competitive behavior, evacuation state, influencing factors

中图分类号:

X910安全人体学

刘娟, 叶然, 王静虹. 基于系统动力学的疏散人员竞争行为仿真分析[J]. 中国安全科学学报, 2024, 34(11): 58-65.

LIU Juan, YE Ran, WANG Jinghong. Simulation analysis of evacuees competitive behavior based on system dynamics[J]. China Safety Science Journal, 2024, 34(11): 58-65.

图/表 13

表1

图1

表2

表3

图2

图3

图4

图5

图6

图7

表4

图8

图9

参考文献 23

[1]	ABIR I M, IBRAHIM A M, TOHA S F, et al. A review on the hospital evacuation simulation models[J]. International Journal of Disaster Risk Reduction, 2022,77: DOI: 10.1016/j.ijdrr.2022.103083.
[2]	XUE Shuqi, SHI Xiaomeng, JIANG Ru, et al. Incentive-based experiments to characterize pedestrians' evacuation behaviors under limited visibility[J]. Safety Science, 2021, 133: DOI: 10.1016/j.ssci.2020.105013.
[3]	CAO Shuchao, FU Libi, WANG Peng, et al. Experimental and modeling study on evacuation under good and limited visibility in a supermarket[J]. Fire Safety Journal, 2018, 102: 27-36.
[4]	XIE Wei, LEE E W M, CHENG Yanying, et al. Evacuation performance of individuals and social groups under different visibility conditions: experiments and surveys[J]. International Journal of Disaster Risk Reduction, 2020, 47: DOI: 10.1016/j.ijdrr.2020.101527.
[5]	陶政广, 王维莉, 胡志华, 等. 考虑分类人群行为的建筑疏散模型研究[J]. 计算机工程与应用, 2019, 55(7): 265-270. doi: 10.3778/j.issn.1002-8331.1803-0362
	TAO Zhengguang, WANG Weili, HU Zhihua, et al. Study on building evacuation model considering categorized pedestrian behaviors[J]. Computer Engineering and Applications, 2019, 55(7): 265-270. doi: 10.3778/j.issn.1002-8331.1803-0362
[6]	王世玲. 突发事件下地铁车站人员疏散行为及模拟研究[D]. 郑州: 郑州大学, 2019.
	WANG Shiling. Study on pedestrian emergency evacuation behavior and simulation of subway station[D]. Zhengzhou: Zhengzhou University, 2019.
[7]	叶成豪, 刘月婵, 孙超, 等. 考虑火灾产物影响条件下的人员疏散仿真研究[J]. 中国安全科学学报, 2020, 30(6): 142-151. doi: 10.16265/j.cnki.issn1003-3033.2020.06.021
	YE Chenghao, LIU Yuechan, SUN Chao, et al. Simulation study on personnel evacuation considering impacts of fire products[J]. China Safety Science Journal, 2020, 30(6): 142-151. doi: 10.16265/j.cnki.issn1003-3033.2020.06.021
[8]	谢启苗, 王焘, 王维莉. 考虑恐慌心理的人员疏散模[J]. 中国安全科学学报, 2022, 32(7): 180-187. doi: 10.16265/j.cnki.issn1003-3033.2022.07.0585
	XIE Qimiao, WANG Tao, WANG Weili. An evacuation model considering panic psychology[J]. China Safety Science Journal, 2022, 32(7): 180-187. doi: 10.16265/j.cnki.issn1003-3033.2022.07.0585
[9]	王坤. 基于行为心理学的火灾疏散联合仿真研究[D]. 西安: 长安大学, 2021.
	WANG Kun. Joint simulation of fire evacuation based on behavioral psychology[D]. Xi'an: Chang'an University, 2021.
[10]	游磊, 罗熙越, 刘旭, 等. 基于元胞自动机和SIS传染算法的恐慌状态下行人疏散模型[J]. 成都大学学报:自然科学版, 2020, 39(1): 51-54.
	YOU Lei, LUO Xiyue, LIU Xu, et al. Study on pedestrian evacuation model under panic state based on cellular automata and SIS algorithm[J]. Journal of Chengdu University: Natural Science Edition, 2020, 39(1): 51-54.
[11]	王立晓, 郝闵熙, 孙小慧. 考虑行人心理潜变量的地铁应急疏散仿真研究[J]. 中国安全科学学报, 2022, 32(8): 67-75. doi: 10.16265/j.cnki.issn1003-3033.2022.08.0307
	WANG Lixiao, HAO Minxi, SUN Xiaohui. Simulation study of subway emergency evacuation considering psychological latent variables of pedestrians[J]. China Safety Science Journal, 2022, 32(8): 67-75. doi: 10.16265/j.cnki.issn1003-3033.2022.08.0307
[12]	马玲. 考虑恐慌情绪传播的购物中心人群疏散仿真[D]. 天津: 天津理工大学, 2022.
	MA Ling. Simulation of shopping center crowd evacuation considering the spread of panic[D]. Tianjin: Tianjin University of Technology, 2022.
[13]	TIAN Huanhuan, WEI Yanfang, DONG Liyun, et al. Resolution of conflicts in cellular automaton evacuation model with the game-theory[J]. Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, 2018, 503: 991-1 006.
[14]	ZHANG Yuchun, MA Jian, SI Youliang, et al. Required width of exit to avoid the faster-is-slower effect in highly competitive evacuation[J]. Chinese Physics B, 2017, 26(8): DOI: 10.1088/1674-1056/26/8/084504.
[15]	CHENG Yuan, ZHENG Xiaoping. Emergence of cooperation during an emergency evacuation[J]. Applied Mathematics and Computation, 2018, 320: 485-494.
[16]	刘亮, 陈永刚. 复杂系统仿真的Anylogic实践[M]. 北京: 清华大学出版社, 2019: 180-187.
	LIU Liang, CHEN Yonggang. Complex system simulation with Anylogic[M]. Beijing: Tsinghua University Press, 2019: 180-187.
[17]	邹德龙. 基于系统动力学的地铁客流分析与仿真[D]. 大连: 大连交通大学, 2019.
	ZOU Delong. Metro passenger flow analysis and simulation based on system dynamics[D]. Dalian: Dalian Jiaotong University, 2019.
[18]	宋亮亮. 城市地铁系统运行的脆弱性仿真研究及应用[D]. 南京: 东南大学, 2020.
	SONG Liangliang. Simulation of operational vulnerability for urban metro system and its application[D]. Nanjing: Southeast University, 2020.
[19]	殷杰. 高聚集游客群系统安全分析及其动态评估研究[D]. 厦门: 华侨大学, 2018.
	YIN Jie. A study on the system safety analysis and dynamic assessment of highly aggregated tourist corwds[D]. Xiamen: Huaqiao University, 2018.
[20]	狄月. 考虑恐慌影响的地铁站台应急疏散模型研究[D]. 北京: 北京交通大学, 2017.
	DI Yue. Research on emergency evacuation model of metro platforms considering the impact of panic[D]. Beijing: Beijing Jiaotong University, 2017.
[21]	XU Shuangyan, WANG Jinghong, LI Jia, et al. System dynamics research of non-adaptive evacuation psychology in toxic gas leakage emergencies of chemical park[J]. Journal of Loss Prevention in the Process Industries, 2021, 72: DOI: 10.1016/j.jlp.2021.104556.
[22]	MAO Yan, FAN Zixuan, ZHAO Jiawei, et al. An emotional contagion based simulation for emergency evacuation peer behavior decision[J]. Simulation Modelling Practice and Theory, 2019, 96: DOI:10.1016/j.simpat.2019.101936.
[23]	CHEN An, CHEN James J. Multivariate analysis of variance test for gene set analysis[J]. Bioinformatics, 2009, 25(7): 897-903.

变量	含义	变量	含义
G	引导作用	P₂	烟气扩散率
H₁	帮助行为	E₁	竞争疏散人员
D	竞争强度	E₂	独立疏散人员
U	紧急程度	E₃	合作疏散人员
S	信息传播范围	C₁	竞争发生率1
L	领导者	C₂	竞争发生率2
A	接受程度	C₃	竞争发生率3
H₂	帮助概率	F₁	冷静率Flow
Y	年轻人占比	F₂	冷静率Flow1
V	能见度	F₃	冷静率Flow2
P₁	恐慌

参数	取值
总人数	800
烟气扩散率	0
视野受限程度	0.3
恐慌	0
接受程度	0.2
领导者	0.2
信息传播范围	2
同情心	0.2
年轻人占比	0.5

因素	平方和	均方	F
A	72 446.80	36 223.40	25.78
B	96 507.33	24 126.83	17.17
交互作用	11 243.87	28 159.02	20.04