黄河流域环境风险因素的时空演变及影响因素分析

doi:10.16265/j.cnki.issn1003-3033.2024.03.1420

摘要/Abstract

摘要：

为深入推进黄河流域环境风险防治,实现黄河流域高质量发展,利用大气污染、水污染、碳排放表征黄河流域环境风险因素,采用空间核密度方法构建核函数进行密度平滑处理,分析环境风险因素空间集聚态势及演化特征;采用考虑空间依赖性的空间自回归模型剖析多维因素对环境风险因素的影响。结果表明:大气污染、水污染、碳排放主要集中在黄河流域中下游城市,环境风险防治区域明显;产业结构优化升级及企业绿色技术创新可降低环境风险因素,但节能环保支出不合理会导致环境风险因素升高;经济水平和人口密度与风险因素之间存在倒U型曲线关系。从长远发展战略看,应该以区域协同治理、减污降碳协同治理为战略主导,加强中下游城市协作,优化产业结构,加大行业技术创新投入,实现经济发展模式转型。

关键词: 黄河流域, 环境风险因素, 时空演变, 影响因素, 大气污染, 水污染, 碳排放

Abstract:

To advance environmental risk prevention and control in the Yellow River basin and achieve high-quality development, this study utilized air pollution, water pollution and carbon emissions to characterize environmental risk factors in this region. Firstly, the kernel density estimation method was employed to construct a kernel function, perform density smoothing, and analyze the spatial agglomeration patterns and evolutionary characteristics of environmental risk factors. Secondly, a spatial autoregressive model that accounts for spatial dependence was adopted to dissect the influences of multidimensional factors on environmental risk factors. The results indicate that air pollution, water pollution, and carbon emissions are primarily concentrated in the middle and downstream cities of Yellow River basin, delineating distinct regions for environmental risk prevention and control. Optimizing industrial structures and promoting green technological innovation in enterprises can reduce environmental risk factors. However, unreasonable energy conservation and environmental protection expenditures may lead to an increase in environmental risk factors. Furthermore, an inverted U-shaped relationship was observed between economic levels and population density and risk factors. From a long-term strategic perspective, regional collaborative governance and synergistic pollution reduction and carbon mitigation should be the strategic priorities. Strengthening cooperation among middle and downstream cities, optimizing industrial structures and increasing investment in industrial technological innovation are crucial steps towards achieving an economic development model transformation.

Key words: Yellow River basin, environmental risk factors, spatial-temporal evolution, influencing factors, air pollution, water pollution, carbon emission

中图分类号:

X915.5

徐孝民, 李伟, 黄胜忠. 黄河流域环境风险因素的时空演变及影响因素分析[J]. 中国安全科学学报, 2024, 34(3): 206-215.

XU Xiaomin, LI Wei, HUANG Shengzhong. Temporal and spatial dynamics and influencing factors analysis of environmental risk factors in Yellow River basin[J]. China Safety Science Journal, 2024, 34(3): 206-215.

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总效应	lnPM_2.5	lnSO₂	lnISD	lnIW	lnCO₂
lnL	-0.153 7^** (-2.15)	0.299 7^*** (2.78)	0.034 5 (0.27)	-0.348 0^*** (-3.90)	0.092 1 (1.55)
lnL²	0.051 6^** (2.18)	-0.156 4^*** (-3.63)	-0.006 7 (-0.16)	0.055 7^** (2.33)	-0.022 6 (-1.18)
lnI	0.143 8^* (1.85)	-0.005 7 (-0.06)	-0.005 2 (-0.04)	0.071 0 (0.96)	0.111 1^* (1.79)
lnP	-1.052 1^*** (-2.65)	0.907 8^** (2.14)	0.632 6 (1.09)	0.638 0^* (1.95)	0.194 0 (0.75)
lnP²	0.055 9^*** (2.65)	-0.043 8^** (-1.96)	-0.029 7 (-0.96)	-0.032 9^* (-1.89)	-0.009 4 (-0.68)
lnT	-0.014 5 (-0.86)	-0.103 7^*** (-3.29)	-0.170 9^*** (-3.55)	-0.060 6^*** (-2.83)	-0.059 1^*** (-3.26)
lnH	-0.026 1 (-1.38)	-0.019 7 (-0.81)	-0.006 7 (-0.18)	0.059 7^*** (2.59)	0.005 5 (0.33)
空间自相关系数	0.314 1^** (2.04)	-0.966 5^*** (-2.80)	-0.615 9^** (-2.10)	-1.099 8^*** (-3.18)	-1.839 4^*** (-4.41)
残差方差	0.012 7^*** (21.30)	0.230 3^*** (21.12)	0.322 9^*** (21.25)	0.166 9^*** (21.09)	0.209 3^*** (20.71)
控制变量	控制	控制	控制	控制	控制
个体/时间固定	控制	控制	控制	控制	控制
样本容量	910	910	910	910	910