中国安全科学学报 ›› 2023, Vol. 33 ›› Issue (4): 52-60.doi: 10.16265/j.cnki.issn1003-3033.2023.04.0840

• 安全社会科学与安全管理 • 上一篇    下一篇

基于SFN-SD的北极冰区船舶航行风险传递路径研究

席永涛1(), 张靓2, 付姗姗3,4,**(), 胡甚平1, 韩冰4   

  1. 1 上海海事大学 商船学院,上海 201306
    2 上海海事大学 海洋科学与工程学院,上海 201306
    3 上海海事大学 交通运输学院,上海 201306
    4 上海船舶运输科学研究所有限公司,上海 200135
  • 收稿日期:2022-11-12 修回日期:2023-02-14 出版日期:2023-04-28
  • 通讯作者:
    ** 付姗姗(1987—),女,湖北武汉人,博士,副教授,主要从事北极航行船舶安全保障方面的研究。E-mail:
  • 作者简介:

    席永涛 (1977—),男,河北无极人,博士,教授,博士生导师,主要从事交通运输安全与管理、人因可靠性分析、风险建模与评估方面的研究。E-mail:

    胡甚平 教授

    韩冰 研究员

  • 基金资助:
    国家重点研发计划(2021YFC2801000); 上海青年科技启明星计划(22QC1400600)

Research on risk transfer path of ship navigation in Arctic waters based on SFN and SD

XI Yongtao1(), ZHANG Liang2, FU Shanshan3,4,**(), HU Shenping1, HAN Bing4   

  1. 1 Merchant Marine College, Shanghai Maritime University, Shanghai 201306, China
    2 College of Ocean Science and Engineering, Shanghai Maritime University, Shanghai 201306, China
    3 College of Transport & Communications, Shanghai Maritime University, Shanghai 201306, China
    4 Shanghai Ship and Shipping Research Institute Co., Ltd., Shanghai 200135, China
  • Received:2022-11-12 Revised:2023-02-14 Published:2023-04-28

摘要:

为明晰北极冰区船舶航行风险传递路径,从人员、船舶、环境、管理4方面识别北极冰区航行风险因素,并应用空间故障网络(SFN)理论和决策试验与评估实验室(DEMATEL)方法,分析船舶北极航行风险事件;采用主观数据获得风险传递概率和传递路径,构建北极冰区船舶航行风险传递网络模型;基于永盛轮北极航行记录数据,运用系统动力学(SD)方法,仿真并验证北极冰区船舶航行风险传递网络模型。结果表明:船舶北极航行风险事件中,8种为边缘事件,14种为过程事件,8种为最终事件;从边缘事件到最终事件有15条网络传递路径;经实例验证,所构建的风险传递网络模型可靠;通过该模型能够描述风险事件的传递效应和传递路径,获得最终风险事件的动态概率曲线,揭示北极冰区船舶航行风险传递的规律,为风险防范措施的制定提供技术支持。

关键词: 空间故障网络(SFN), 系统动力学(SD), 北极冰区, 船舶航行风险, 传递网络

Abstract:

In order to clarify the risk transfer path of ship navigation in the Arctic waters, risk factors of ship navigation were identified from the human, ship, environment and management. SFN and decision making trial and evaluation laboratory (DEMATEL) method were used to analyze the Arctic navigation risk events. The risk transfer probability and risk transfer path were obtained by subjective data and then the risk transfer network model of ship navigation in the Arctic waters was constructed. Based on the navigation record data of vessel "Yongsheng", SD method was used to simulate and verify the Arctic waters ship navigation risk transfer network model. The results showed that among the risk events of ship navigation in the Arctic, 8 were edge events, 14 were process events and 8 are target events and 15 risk transfer paths from edge events to target events were generated. The example shows that the risk transfer network model is reliable. This model can describe the transmission effect and path of risk events, obtain the dynamic probability curve of ultimate risk events, reveal the law of ship navigation risk transmission in the Arctic waters, which provide technical support for the formulation of risk prevention measures.

Key words: space fault network (SFN), system dynamics (SD), Arctic ice covered waters, ship navigation risk, transfer network