系统故障演化过程最终事件状态及发生概率研究*

doi:10.16265/j.cnki.issn1003-3033.2021.08.001

中国安全科学学报 ›› 2021, Vol. 31 ›› Issue (8): 1-7.doi: 10.16265/j.cnki.issn1003-3033.2021.08.001

• 安全科学理论与安全系统科学 • 下一篇

系统故障演化过程最终事件状态及发生概率研究^*

崔铁军¹ 副教授, 李莎莎² 讲师

1 辽宁工程技术大学安全科学与工程学院,辽宁葫芦岛 125105;
2 辽宁工程技术大学工商管理学院,辽宁葫芦岛 125105

收稿日期:2021-05-05 修回日期:2021-07-16 出版日期:2021-08-28 发布日期:2022-02-28
作者简介:崔铁军 (1983—),男,辽宁沈阳人,博士,副教授,主要从事系统可靠性及力学系统稳定性研究。 E-mail:ctj.159@163.com。
基金资助:
国家自然科学基金资助(52004120);辽宁省教育厅科学研究经费项目(LJ2020QNL018);国家重点研发计划资助项目(2017YFC1503102);辽宁工程技术大学学科创新团队资助项目(LNTU20TD-31)。

Study on target event state and occurrence probability of system fault evolution process

CUI Tiejun¹, LI Shasha²

1 College of Safety Science and Engineering, Liaoning Technical University, Huludao Liaoning 125105, China;
2 School of Business Administration, Liaoning Technical University, Huludao Liaoning 125105, China

Received:2021-05-05 Revised:2021-07-16 Online:2021-08-28 Published:2022-02-28

摘要/Abstract

摘要： 为探究系统故障演化过程(SFEP)中系统故障的发生特征,基于空间故障网络(SFN)和量子博弈理论提出最终事件状态及发生概率确定方法,以管理者和操作者的安全和不安全行为制定博弈假设,通过量子力学方法表示混合策略概率;研究单一事件混合策略的概率、事件逻辑关系的量子博弈表示、最终事件状态形式及发生概率。结果表明:利用管理者和操作者的静态博弈确定预期收益,求导得到各方安全和不安全行为概率,即可得到最终事件全部状态的发生概率;但由于安全和不安全行为概率是由管理者和操作者收益确定的,因此最终事件全部状态的发生概率是不精确的。

关键词: 系统故障演化过程(SFEP), 最终事件状态, 发生概率, 量子博弈, 空间故障网络(SFN)

Abstract: In order to study occurrence characteristics of system faults in SFEP, a method to determine target event state and probability was established based on SFN and quantum game theory. Game hypothesis was established based on safe and unsafe behaviors of managers and operators, hybrid strategy probability was represented by quantum mechanics. Then, probability of single event hybrid strategy, quantum game representation of event logic relationship, form of target event state and occurrence probability were studied. The results show that by using static game between manager and operator to determine expected benefits, by derivation can obtain probability of safe and unsafe behaviors of all parties, and obtain probability of all states of target event. However, because benefits of manager and operator determine probability of safe and unsafe behaviors, so probability of all states of target event is not accurate.

Key words: system fault evolution process (SFEP), target event state, occurrence probability, quantum game, space fault network (SFN)

中图分类号:

X913

崔铁军, 李莎莎. 系统故障演化过程最终事件状态及发生概率研究^*[J]. 中国安全科学学报, 2021, 31(8): 1-7.

CUI Tiejun, LI Shasha. Study on target event state and occurrence probability of system fault evolution process[J]. China Safety Science Journal, 2021, 31(8): 1-7.

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系统故障演化过程最终事件状态及发生概率研究^*

Study on target event state and occurrence probability of system fault evolution process

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