深水钻井井喷事故风险控制决策方法

doi:10.16265/j.cnki.issn1003-3033.2020.02.018

中国安全科学学报 ›› 2020, Vol. 30 ›› Issue (2): 113-118.doi: 10.16265/j.cnki.issn1003-3033.2020.02.018

深水钻井井喷事故风险控制决策方法

朱敬宇, 陈国明^** 教授, 吕寒, 孟祥坤, 智晨潇, 周丽晨

中国石油大学(华东) 海洋油气装备与安全技术研究中心, 山东青岛 266580

收稿日期:2019-11-15 修回日期:2020-01-03 出版日期:2020-02-28 发布日期:2021-01-25
通讯作者: **陈国明(1962—),男,浙江绍兴人,博士,教授,博士生导师,主要从事海洋油气工程及装备、油气安全工程方面的研究。E-mail:offshore@126.com。
作者简介:朱敬宇(1992—),男,河南永城人,博士研究生,研究方向为海洋油气安全、深水井喷风险控制技术。E-mail:jingyu_zhu@126.com。
基金资助:
国家重点研发计划(2017YFC0804501,2016YFC0304005)。

Research on risk control decision method for deepwater drilling blowout

ZHU Jingyu, CHEN Guoming, LYU Han, MENG Xiangkun, ZHI Chenxiao, ZHOU Lichen

Centre for Offshore Engineering and Safety Technology, China University of Petroleum, Qingdao Shandong 266580, China

Received:2019-11-15 Revised:2020-01-03 Online:2020-02-28 Published:2021-01-25

摘要/Abstract

摘要： 为有效降低深水钻井井喷事故风险,提出一种井喷事故风险控制决策定量评估方法。首先运用贝叶斯网络(BN)建立深水钻井井喷事故评估模型,根据BN网络前向和后向推理原则,确定井喷事故的主要风险因素和发生概率;然后针对导致井喷事故发生的风险因素提出5项风险控制措施,考虑执行风险决策的效用和成本,通过增加效用节点和成本节点,建立深水钻井井喷事故风险控制决策模型,定量评估31项风险决策措施的有效性和总成本。研究结果表明:执行加强人员技能培训和增加功能测试与维护决策的总成本较低,同时可将深水钻井井喷事故风险控制在可接受风险区域。

关键词: 深水钻井, 井喷事故, 风险控制, 贝叶斯网络(BN), 影响图(ID)

Abstract: In order to reduce blowout accidents in deepwater drilling, a quantitative assessment method of risk control decision is put forward. Firstly, an assessment model for blowout accidents in deepwater drilling was established by using BN, and based on forward and backward reasoning principles of BN, major risk factors and occurrence probability were determined. Then, five risk control measures were proposed targeting at risk factors. Finally, a risk control decision model was constructed by adding utility node and cost node, and effectiveness and total cost of 31 decision-making measures were evaluated quantitatively. The results show that decision implementation of strengthening personnel skills training and increasing functional testing and maintenance costs lower, and can also help control blowout risk in an acceptable range.

Key words: deepwater drilling, blowout accidents, risk control, Bayesian network (BN), influence diagram (ID)

中图分类号:

X913.4

朱敬宇, 陈国明, 吕寒, 孟祥坤, 智晨潇, 周丽晨. 深水钻井井喷事故风险控制决策方法[J]. 中国安全科学学报, 2020, 30(2): 113-118.

ZHU Jingyu, CHEN Guoming, LYU Han, MENG Xiangkun, ZHI Chenxiao, ZHOU Lichen. Research on risk control decision method for deepwater drilling blowout[J]. China Safety Science Journal, 2020, 30(2): 113-118.

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深水钻井井喷事故风险控制决策方法

Research on risk control decision method for deepwater drilling blowout

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