考虑应急主体心理的山区突发暴雨灾害情景推演

doi:10.16265/j.cnki.issn1003-3033.2025.12.1739

摘要/Abstract

摘要：

为有效应对山区突发暴雨灾害,探究应急主体心理对灾害演化的影响,利用博弈论和贝叶斯网络(BN)相结合的方法,推演山区突发暴雨灾害演化路径。首先,分析历史灾害数据,并咨询相关专家,确定应急情景、孕灾环境、应急措施和人的心理这4类情景要素;然后,使用Jaccard指数确定情景间的关系,运用博弈论方法优化由案例分析统计法和三角模糊数法确定的BN节点概率,构建一个考虑应急主体心理的山区突发暴雨灾害BN情景推演模型;最后,将其应用于四川金阳“8·21”山洪泥石流灾害开展对比试验。结果表明:该模型具有可行性和优越性,且忽略心理因素会导致灾害风险被低估。因此,应急管理部门在制定应急策略时,应重视人的心理对预警、疏散和资源分配的影响,以增强措施的有效性和适应性。

关键词: 应急主体心理, 山区突发暴雨灾害, 情景推演, 贝叶斯网络(BN), 博弈论, 案例分析统计法, 三角模糊数法

Abstract:

In order to effectively respond to sudden mountain rainstorm disaster and explore the impact of emergency subjects' psychology on disaster evolution, a method combining game theory and BN was used to simulate the disaster's progression. First, historical disaster cases were analyzed, and consultations with relevant experts were conducted to identify four key scenario elements: emergency scenarios, disaster-forming environment, emergency measures, and human psychology. The Jaccard index was then employed to determine the relationships between these scenarios, while game theory methods were applied to optimize the BN node probabilities, which were initially estimated through case analysis statistics and triangular fuzzy number methods. This led to the construction of a BN-based disaster simulation model that incorporated the psychological factors of emergency subjects in the context of sudden mountain rainstorm disaster. Finally, the model was applied to analyze the "8·21" mountain flood and debris flow disaster in Jinyang, Sichuan, and comparative experiments were carried out. The results demonstrate that the disaster reasoning model is feasible and superior, and the neglect of psychological factors leads to an underestimation of disaster risks. Therefore, emergency management agencies should consider the influence of human psychology on early warnings, evacuation, and resource allocation when designing emergency strategies, in order to improve the effectiveness and adaptability of their measures.

Key words: emergency subjects' psychology, sudden mountain rainstorm disaster, scenario deduction, Bayesian network (BN), game theory, case-analytical statistical method, triangular fuzzy number method

中图分类号:

X915.5

方丹辉, 曾倪萍, 王佩佩. 考虑应急主体心理的山区突发暴雨灾害情景推演[J]. 中国安全科学学报, 2025, 35(12): 221-229.

FANG Danhui, ZENG Niping, WANG Peipei. Scenario deduction of sudden mountain rainstorm disaster considering psychological factors of emergency subjects[J]. China Safety Science Journal, 2025, 35(12): 221-229.

图/表 10

图1

图2

表1

山区突发暴雨灾害情境要素组成

S	E	M	X
降雨开始S₁	极端天气、大气环流、台风来袭等E₁	发布气象预警,启动预案M₁	积极状态、消极状态X₁
强降雨持续,达到暴雨级别,做好灾害发生时的准备S₂	充足的水汽、强烈的气流上升运动和大气层结构的不稳定等E₂	提高应急响应水平,配备应急物资和设备,加固老旧房屋,清理出水口M₂	积极状态、消极状态X₂
地表积水,河道河水上涨,水库水位上涨S₃	—	大力疏通泄洪通道和排水系统,加强对山洪地质灾害易发点监测预警M₃	积极状态、消极状态X₃
积水及时排出,水位下降,洪水发生概率降低S₄	—	—	—
天气继续恶化,暴雨持续,人们进入备战状态S₅	大气环流稳定、地形降水效应仍显著、对流“列车效应”持续等E₃	强制可能受灾的单位停工停产,转移安置处于危险区的群众M₄	积极状态、消极状态X₄
人员及时避险,0伤亡S₆	—	—	—
河堤决口、溃坝、山洪/洪涝S₇	坡度陡峭、汇水地貌E₄	开挖泄流槽降低水位、加固河道堤防和水库坝体、24 h连续监测河流上游和水库的水位情况,根据监测信息及时排险M₅	积极状态、消极状态X₅
崩塌、滑坡、泥石流S₈	坡度陡峭、岩石风化、丰富的松散固体物源补给E₅	全面排查地质隐患、24 h连续监测山体位移变形情况,采取工程治理措施M₆	积极状态、消极状态X₆
人员伤亡严重、房屋倒塌、道路桥梁塌方、农业受损、断水断电断气事故S₉	—	启动应急响应,对危险区实行全面管制,疏通车辆,清理道路,搜救人员,危险区人员转移避险,抢修生命线系统,调拨救灾物资,疫情防控M₇	积极状态、消极状态X₇
人员全部撤离,无次生灾害发生,伤亡不再增加、危险被完全控制S₁₀	—	—	—
堰塞湖S₁₁	存在原有水系E₆	清理堆积物、爆破泄洪或开挖引流槽、泄流渠,水泵抽水M₈	积极状态、消极状态X₈
不发生溃决、暴雨消失 ${{S}_{}}_{12}$	—	—	—

表1

图3

图4

表2

表3

图5

图6

图7

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节点变量	状态	案例分析统计法	三角模糊数法	α₁	α₂ =1-α₁	综合概率
X₁	1	0.624	0.886	0.326	0.674	0.800
X₂	1	0.565	0.812	0.222	0.778	0.757
X₃	1	0.529	0.721	0.135	0.865	0.695
E	孕灾环境是灾害发生的必要条件,因此,只考虑E存在的情况,P(S\|E=0)=0, P(E=1)=1
M	若采取应急措施,则P(M=1)=1;若没有,则P(M=0)=1
S₁=1 (E₁=1)	M₁=1, X₁=1	1.000	0.892	0.507	0.493	0.947
	M₁=1, X₁=0	0.875	0.899	0.496	0.504	0.887
	M₁=0, X₁=1	1.000	0.396	0.715	0.285	0.828
	M₁=0, X₁=0	0.792	0.397	0.688	0.312	0.669
S₂=1 (E₂=1)	S₁=1, M₂=1, X₂=1	1.000	0.771	0.544	0.456	0.896
	S₁=1, M₂=1, X₂=0	1.000	0.770	0.545	0.455	0.895
	S₁=1, M₂=0, X₂=0	0.667	0.618	0.573	0.427	0.646
	S₁=1, M₂=0, X₂=1	0.929	0.700	0.589	0.411	0.835
	S₁=0, M₂=0, X₂=0	0.000	0.120	0.509	0.491	0.059
	S₁=0, M₂=0, X₂=1	0.000	0.228	0.544	0.456	0.104
	S₁=0, M₂=1, X₂=1	0.000	0.261	0.562	0.438	0.114
	S₁=0, M₂=1, X₂=0	0.000	0.093	0.505	0.495	0.046

等级	语言描述	三角模糊数
1	非常高	(0.85,0.925,1)
2	高	(0.75,0.8,0.85)
3	略高	(0.55,0.65,0.75)
4	中等	(0.45,0.5,0.55)
5	略低	(0.25,0.35,0.45)
6	低	(0.05,0.15,0.25)
7	非常低	(0,0.025,0.05)