关键词: 贝叶斯网络, 突发公共卫生事件, 应急响应, 关键路径, 情景推演, 公立医院

Abstract:

To enhance the emergency response capacity of public hospitals in dealing with public health emergencies, the Bayesian network approach was adopted in this study. From the perspective of public hospitals, scenario elements, tasks, and capabilities of public health emergencies were extracted and an emergency response network was constructed. The network was centred around the emergency leading group as the core node, the emergency expert group, medical departments and other core departments as well as pharmacy and other supporting departments were collaborated internally. And it linked with local disease control, public security, communities and other administrative agencies externally, thus forming an emergency response structure with internal and external collaboration. Through diagnostic analysis, the priority of response objectives was clarified. The results show that "preventing nosocomial infection incidents" is the primary objective (accounting for 40%). Three key paths are identified: establishing the emergency leading group-establishing the emergency expert group, establishing the emergency leading group - strictly implementing various prevention and control systems, and establishing the emergency leading group - virus testing.

Key words: Bayesian network, public health emergency, emergency response, critical path, scenario deduction, public hospitals