基于改进的云模型-FMEA的油气管道风险排序

doi:10.16265/j.cnki.issn1003-3033.2024.05.1069

中国安全科学学报 ›› 2024, Vol. 34 ›› Issue (5): 61-68.doi: 10.16265/j.cnki.issn1003-3033.2024.05.1069

基于改进的云模型-FMEA的油气管道风险排序

王东营¹(), 陈小平¹^,^**(), 刘权¹, 赵天浩¹, 闫序²

1 国家管网集团北京管道有限公司技术研究中心,北京 100101
2 中国石油大学(北京)油气生产安全与应急技术应急管理部重点实验室,北京 102249

收稿日期:2023-11-10 修回日期:2024-02-20 出版日期:2024-05-28
通讯作者:
**陈小平(1981—),男,甘肃定西人,本科,高级工程师,主要从事管网可靠性技术、风光一体化发电用电技术、低阶煤气化制氢技术工作等。E-mail:chenxp02@pipechina.com.cn。

作者简介:

王东营 (1974—),男,河北衡水人,博士,高级工程师,主要从事管道完整性管理技术、输氢管道关键技术研究、甲烷排放管控关键技术及装备研发等工作。E-mail:wangdy@pipechina.com.cn。

陈小平高级工程师

基金资助:
国家自然科学基金资助(51874324); 中国石油天然气集团有限公司-中国石油大学(北京)战略合作科技专项(ZLZX2020-05)

Risk ranking of oil and gas pipeline based on improved cloud model-FMEA

WANG Dongying¹(), CHEN Xiaoping¹^,^**(), LIU Quan¹, ZHAO Tianhao¹, YAN Xu²

1 Technology Research Center, National Pipe Network Group Beijing Pipeline Company Limited, Beijing 100101, China
2 Key Laboratory of Oil and Gas Production Safety and Emergency Technology Emergency Management Department, China University of Petroleum Beijing, Beijing 102249, China

Received:2023-11-10 Revised:2024-02-20 Published:2024-05-28

摘要/Abstract

摘要：

为解决传统故障模式和影响分析法(FMEA)存在故障优先排序不准确、风险评价主观性过强的问题,提出一种基于混合权重-云模型的油气管道故障模式风险评价方法。首先,调研并分析油气管道失效模式与原因,构建系统FMEA模型;然后,提出基于云模型与混合权重法的专家评价意见处理方法,引入博弈论的思想,降低评价结果的主观性与随机性;最后,使用多准则妥协解排序法(VIKOR)对各个失效模式风险排序,并对比传统FMEA法,验证该方法的可行性与准确性。结果表明:该方法可综合评估管线上各管段的风险因素,量化不同管段上的风险值及同一管段上的最主要的失效模式,实现管道高风险区域的有效定位及管段上风险因素排序。

关键词: 云模型, 故障模式和影响分析法(FMEA), 油气管道, 风险排序, 博弈论, 多准则妥协解排序法(VIKOR)

Abstract:

In order to solve the problems of inaccurate failure priority ranking and excessively subjective risk evaluation in traditional FMEA, a risk evaluation method of oil and gas pipeline failure modes based on a hybrid weights-cloud model was proposed. Firstly, the failure modes and causes of oil and gas pipelines were investigated and analyzed, and the systematic FMEA mode was constructed. Then an expert evaluation opinion processing method was proposed based on the cloud model and the hybrid weight method. The game theory was introduced to reduce the subjectivity and randomness of the evaluation results. Finally, VIKOR was used to rank the risk of each failure mode. The feasibility and accuracy of this method was verified by comparing with the traditional FMEA method. The results show that the method can comprehensively assess the risk factors of pipeline sections, quantify the risk values of different pipeline sections and identify the most important failure modes of the same pipeline section, realizing the effective positioning of pipeline high-risk areas and the ranking of the risk factors of pipeline sections.

Key words: cloud model, failure mode and effects analysis (FMEA), oil and gas pipelines, risk ranking, game theory, vise kriterijumski optimizacioni racun (VIKOR)

中图分类号:

X913.4安全系统工程

王东营, 陈小平, 刘权, 赵天浩, 闫序. 基于改进的云模型-FMEA的油气管道风险排序[J]. 中国安全科学学报, 2024, 34(5): 61-68.

WANG Dongying, CHEN Xiaoping, LIU Quan, ZHAO Tianhao, YAN Xu. Risk ranking of oil and gas pipeline based on improved cloud model-FMEA[J]. China Safety Science Journal, 2024, 34(5): 61-68.

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序号	失效模式	失效原因	失效后果
1	变形	地质运动、土壤湿陷、洪水冲刷等外力作用导致管道发生弯曲变形	过量的弯曲变形将导致管体对裂纹的止裂能力下降,增大失效风险甚至造成管壁断裂
2	断裂	第三方破坏、施工缺陷、泥石流,塌方等自然灾害引起管道断裂失效	介质泄漏,引发火灾、爆炸、人员中毒等事故
3	结构失稳	由管段的温度急剧变化、沟底局部凸起或发生土壤沉降等引发	发生断裂或开焊,造成管道内原介质大量外溢,污染周围环境,造成经济损失
4	表面损伤	第三方破坏、施工缺陷、自然灾害、腐蚀等造成管道表面金属损伤	由于外力或腐蚀导致金属表面损伤,易引起泄漏,导致火灾、爆炸等,造成人员伤亡
5	腐蚀穿孔	由于管内酸性介质腐蚀、流体冲蚀、大气、土壤等环境因素,造成局部管壁减薄,发生穿孔泄漏	局部腐蚀小孔泄漏,导致池火、喷射火的发生

风险等级	失效可能性(失效概率)描述	后果严重度	探测度/%	云标度
低风险L	液体管道:[(0,1.29次/(10³km·a)];输气集气管道:[(0,2.17次/(10⁴km·a)]; 配气管道:[(0,4.08次/(10⁵km·a)]	极小损失	(85, 100]	(0.390, 0.064,0.008)
中风险M	液体管道:[1.29次/(10³km·a),4.58次/(10⁴km·a)];输气集气管道:[2.17次/(10⁴km·a),1.41次/(10⁴ km·a)];配气管道:[4.08次/(10⁵km·a),2.38次/(10⁵ km·a)]	管道表面损伤石油或气体事件	(65, 85]	(0.5, 0.309,0.005)
高风险H	液体管道:[4.58次/(10⁴km·a),9.09次/(10⁶km·a)];输气集气管道:[1.41次/(10⁴km·a),9.79次/(10⁶km·a)];配气管道:[2.38次/(10⁵km·a),1.11次/(10⁵km·a)]	①致死或受伤入院;②损失超过5万美元;③液体表面损伤导致火灾或结构失稳	(25, 65]	(0.691, 0.064,0.008)
极高风险VH	液体管道:[9.09次/(10⁶km·a),+∞];输气集气管道:[9.79次/(10⁶km·a),+∞];配气管道:[1.11次/(10⁵km·a),+∞]	导致人员死亡或受伤入院的管道事故	(0, 25]	(1,0.1, 0.013)

管段	壁厚/ mm	内压/ MPa	外径/ mm	缺陷深度/mm		缺陷长度/mm		焊缝缺陷深度/mm		焊缝缺陷长/mm
管段	壁厚/ mm	内压/ MPa	外径/ mm	均值	标准差	均值	标准差	均值	标准差	均值	标准差
1	7.1	6.4	660	1.81	0.36	15	10.5	1.4	0.28	123	26.21
2	10.3	6.4	660	2.35	0.47	22	15.4	1.4	0.28	51	10.87
3	8.7	6.4	660	1.64	0.33	24	16.8	1.4	0.28	39	8.31
4	7.1	6.4	660	1.31	0.26	30	21.0	1.4	0.28	167	35.59
5	12.7	6.4	660	2.00	0.40	16	11.2	1.4	0.28	151	32.18
6	10.3	6.4	660	2.35	0.47	17	11.9	1.4	0.28	75	15.98
7	18.4	12	1 016	2.81	0.56	26	18.2	1.4	0.28	160	34.10
8	26.4	10	1 016	3.50	0.70	22	15.4	1.4	0.28	32	6.82
9	22	10	1 016	2.80	0.56	16	11.2	1.4	0.28	142	30.26
10	26.4	10	1 016	5.09	1.02	25	17.5	1.4	0.28	42	8.95
11	14.6	10	1 016	2.79	0.56	17	11.9	1.4	0.28	43	9.16
12	17.5	10	1 016	2.35	0.47	40	28.0	1.4	0.28	170	36.23

失效模式	专家1			专家2			专家3			专家4			专家5
失效模式	S	O	D	S	O	D	S	O	D	S	O	D	S	O	D
断裂	L	VH	VH	VH	VH	VH	H	VH	M	H	H	VH	VL	VH	H
变形	H	H	VL	H	L	L	VL	H	VL	L	VH	H	VL	H	H
结构失稳	H	VL	H	VH	L	H	H	L	H	H	H	H	H	L	L
表面损伤	L	H	H	L	VH	H	L	H	H	VL	L	H	L	VL	VL
腐蚀穿孔	VL	VH	L	H	H	L	VH	H	L	VL	L	H	VH	H	L

失效模式	D	O	S
变形	(0.338,0.036,0.004)	(0.676,0.032,0.004)	(0.338,0.036,0.004)
结构失稳	(0.614,0.028,0.003)	(0.323,0.032,0.004)	(0.752,0.032,0.004)
表面损伤	(0.552,0.032,0.004)	(0.538,0.036,0.004)	(0.247,0.032,0.004)
腐蚀	(0.385,0.028,0.003)	(0.676,0.032,0.004)	(0.538,0.043,0.005)
断裂	(0.838,0.072,0.004)	(0.938,0.043,0.005)	(0.538,0.036,0.004)

基于改进的云模型-FMEA的油气管道风险排序

Risk ranking of oil and gas pipeline based on improved cloud model-FMEA

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参考文献 23

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失效模式	D(+,F_i)	D(-,F_i)	O(+,F_i)	O(-,F_i)	S(+,F_i)	S(-,F_i)
变形	49.92	48.60	79.74	78.72	50.35	49.08
结构失稳	74.42	73.31	47.62	46.55	85.93	84.86
表面损伤	65.86	64.87	69.35	68.44	46.78	45.58
腐蚀	65.86	64.87	80.62	79.69	66.51	65.62
断裂	94.38	93.41	102.47	102.14	66.34	65.46

指标	VIKOR-Q指标	传统FMEA法	排序
断裂	1.36	0.42	1
结构失稳	1.10	0.15	2
腐蚀	0.98	0.14	3
变形	0.77	0.08	4
表面损伤	0.66	0.07	5

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风险因子	指标差异系数	指标冲突性	CRITIC权重
S	0.197	1.926	0.346
O	0.224	1.983	0.406
D	0.199	1.366	0.248