安全发展视角下城市应急管理能力评估

doi:10.16265/j.cnki.issn1003-3033.2023.05.2014

摘要/Abstract

摘要：

为合理有效地评估城市应急管理能力,推进现代化城市的建设,基于安全发展视角,从城市安全源头治理能力、城市安全风险防控能力、城市安全监督管理能力、城市安全保障能力、城市安全应急救援能力及城市安全应急恢复能力6个方面,构建城市应急管理能力评估体系;为有效减少权重计算主观性因素,采用G1法结合熵权法的组合赋权法确定指标权重值;为加强评价工作的科学性、准确性,运用云模型、物元可拓模型构建综合评价模型,以A市为例开展应用,验证该模型的科学性和有效性。结果表明:该指标体系能全面准确反映城市应急管理能力现状,综合评价模型能够准确科学评估城市应急管理能力,为政府应急管理工作提供决策依据。

关键词: 安全发展, 城市应急管理, 能力评估, 云模型, 物元可拓模型

Abstract:

To reasonably and effectively evaluate urban emergency management capability and promote the construction of modern cities, an urban emergency management capacity evaluation system was constructed from six aspects: urban safety source governance capabilities, urban safety risk prevention and control capabilities, urban safety supervision and management capabilities, urban safety assurance capabilities, urban safety emergency rescue capabilities, and urban safety emergency recovery capabilities. The G1 method combined with the entropy weight method was used to calculate the combined weight to effectively reduce the subjective factors of weight calculation. The cloud model and the material-element extensibility model were used to construct a comprehensive evaluation model to strengthen the scientificity and accuracy of the evaluation work. Then a city was taken as an example to conduct application research to verify the scientificity and effectiveness of the model. The results show that the index system can comprehensively and accurately reflect the current situation of urban emergency management capacity, and the comprehensive evaluation model can accurately and scientifically evaluate urban emergency management capacity, which can provide decision-making basis for government emergency management.

Key words: safe development, urban emergency management, capability assessment, cloud model, matter-element extension model

程方明, 王琛琛, 袁晓芳. 安全发展视角下城市应急管理能力评估[J]. 中国安全科学学报, 2023, 33(5): 158-167.

CHENG Fangming, WANG Chenchen, YUAN Xiaofang. Evaluation of urban emergency management capabilities from perspective of safe development[J]. China Safety Science Journal, 2023, 33(5): 158-167.

图/表 11

图1

图2

表1

Rj取值参考

R_j值	含义
1.0	指标 $X j - 1$ 与X_j同等重要
1.2	指标 $X j - 1$ 比X_j稍微重要
1.4	指标 $X j - 1$ 比X_j明显重要
1.6	指标 $X j - 1$ 比X_j特别重要
1.8	指标 $X j - 1$ 比X_j极其重要

表1

表2

表3

城市应急管理能力评估体系指标得分及权重

指标	权重	指标	权重	指标	得分	主观权重	客观权重	组合权重	指标	权重	指标	权重	指标	得分	主观权重	客观权重	组合权重
A	0.129 0	A₁	0.050 2	A₁₁	90.9	0.615 4	0.016 9	0.026 8	C	0.177 2	C₂	0.051 5	C₂₁	81	0.449 5	0.009 5	0.017 2
		A₁	0.050 2	A₁₂	85.7	0.384 6	0.020 5	0.023 4					C₂₂	82	0.321 1	0.018 7	0.020 4
		A₂	0.078 8	A₂₁	85.6	0.316 9	0.015 0	0.018 2					C₂₃	80.5	0.229 4	0.012 1	0.013 9
				A₂₂	80.5	0.198 1	0.017 9	0.015 7			C₃	0.059 7	C₃₁	84.5	0.397 2	0.009 2	0.015 9
				A₂₃	82.5	0.141 5	0.017 5	0.013 1					C₃₂	78	0.248 2	0.010 7	0.013 6
				A₂₄	82.5	0.141 5	0.019 7	0.013 9					C₃₃	82	0.177 3	0.018 7	0.015 1
				A₂₅	80.7	0.117 9	0.012 0	0.009 9					C₃₄	77	0.177 3	0.018 7	0.015 1
				A₂₆	79.5	0.084 2	0.010 9	0.008 0	D	0.209 5	D₁	0.040 7	D₁₁	82	0.583 3	0.012 4	0.022 4
B	0.269 2	B₁	0.057 8	B₁₁	83.5	0.393 2	0.009 7	0.016 2			D₁	0.040 7	D₁₂	78.5	0.416 7	0.011 7	0.018 3
				B₁₂	81.7	0.280 8	0.018 9	0.019 2			D₂	0.052 3	D₂₁	82	0.433 0	0.010 9	0.018 1
				B₁₃	82.5	0.200 6	0.011 7	0.012 7					D₂₂	81.5	0.309 3	0.019 7	0.020 5
				B₁₄	78	0.125 4	0.010 7	0.009 7					D₂₃	81.5	0.257 7	0.010 5	0.013 7
		B₂	0.061 5	B₂₁	82	0.409 3	0.010 1	0.016 9			D₃	0.062 0	D₃₁	81.2	0.341 9	0.010 3	0.015 6
				B₂₂	81.5	0.255 8	0.019 7	0.018 7					D₃₂	80.5	0.284 9	0.017 9	0.018 8
				B₂₃	82	0.182 7	0.018 7	0.015 4					D₃₃	82.5	0.203 5	0.010 7	0.012 3
				B₂₄	82.5	0.152 3	0.010 5	0.010 5					D₃₄	79.5	0.169 6	0.020 0	0.015 3
		B₃	0.109 7	B₃₁	83.5	0.250 1	0.018 8	0.018 0			D₄	0.054 5	D₄₁	83	0.433 0	0.012 8	0.019 6
				B₃₂	80.5	0.178 6	0.012 1	0.012 3					D₄₂	76.5	0.309 3	0.019 7	0.020 5
				B₃₃	80.5	0.148 8	0.017 9	0.013 6					D₄₃	82.5	0.257 7	0.011 7	0.014 4
				B₃₄	82	0.106 3	0.018 7	0.011 7	E	0.141 7	E₁	0.074 3	E₁₁	87.5	0.344 9	0.019 7	0.021 7
				B₃₅	82	0.088 6	0.018 7	0.010 7					E₁₂	78.7	0.215 6	0.018 1	0.016 4
				B₃₆	83.5	0.063 3	0.034 9	0.012 4					E₁₃	83.7	0.154 0	0.009 4	0.010 0
				B₃₇	83	0.052 7	0.008 7	0.005 6					E₁₄	85	0.128 3	0.013 8	0.011 1
				B₃₈	79.5	0.037 7	0.035 9	0.009 7					E₁₅	84.5	0.091 7	0.010 9	0.008 3
				B₃₉	79	0.031 4	0.012 3	0.005 2					E₁₆	81.5	0.065 5	0.010 3	0.006 8
				B₃₁₀	80.5	0.026 2	0.017 9	0.005 7			E₂	0.067 4	E₂₁	81.5	0.377 4	0.019 7	0.022 7
				B₃₁₁	70.7	0.016 3	0.020 3	0.004 8					E₂₂	75.5	0.269 6	0.012 1	0.015 1
		B₄	0.040 2	B₄₁	82.5	0.545 5	0.011 7	0.021 0					E₂₃	78	0.192 6	0.018 3	0.015 6
		B₄	0.040 2	B₄₂	83.5	0.454 5	0.011 7	0.019 2					E₂₄	81	0.160 5	0.017 8	0.014 0
C	0.177 2	C₁	0.066 0	C₁₁	90.5	0.332 9	0.017 9	0.020 3	F	0.073 4	F₁	0.037 3	F₁₁	82	0.583 3	0.010 1	0.020 2
				C₁₂	90.2	0.237 8	0.011 0	0.013 4			F₁	0.037 3	F₁₂	82	0.416 7	0.010 1	0.017 1
				C₁₃	79.5	0.169 8	0.010 9	0.011 3			F₂	0.036 1	F₂₁	83	0.583 3	0.008 7	0.018 7
				C₁₄	81	0.141 5	0.012 0	0.010 8			F₂	0.036 1	F₂₂	81.5	0.416 7	0.010 5	0.017 4
				C₁₅	78	0.117 9	0.012 8	0.010 2

表3

表4

指标关联度

指标	关联度								等级	指标		关联度								等级
指标	j=1	j=2		j=3		j=4		j=5	等级	指标		j=1		j=2		j=3		j=4	j=5	等级
A	-0.002 0	0.001 6		-0.001 8		-0.004 1		-0.005 3	Ⅱ	B₃₇		-0.291 7		0.300 0		-0.150 0		-0.433 3	-0.575 0	Ⅱ
B	-0.006 5	0.003 7		-0.001 7		-0.008 0		-0.011 2	Ⅱ	B₃₈		-0.338 7		-0.023 8		0.050 0		-0.316 7	-0.487 5	Ⅲ
C	-0.002 6	0.008 6		-0.001 1		-0.004 5		-0.006 0	Ⅱ	B₃₉		-0.343 8		-0.043 5		0.100 0		-0.300 0	-0.475 0	Ⅲ
D	-0.003 6	0.001 3		-0.000 4		-0.004 1		-0.005 8	Ⅱ	B₃₁₀		-0.327 6		0.050 0		-0.025 0		-0.350 0	-0.512 5	Ⅱ
E	-0.003 0	0.001 5		-0.000 5		-0.004 0		-0.005 5	Ⅱ	B₃₁₁		-0.397 1		-0.240 9		0.070 0		-0.023 3	-0.267 5	Ⅲ
F	-0.000 8	0.000 6		-0.000 3		-0.001 1		-0.001 5	Ⅱ	B₄₁		-0.300 0		0.250 0		-0.125 0		-0.416 7	-0.562 5	Ⅱ
A₁	-0.003 0	0.007 7		-0.021 3		-0.031 0		-0.035 8	Ⅱ	B₄₂		-0.282 6		0.350 0		-0.175 0		-0.450 0	-0.587 5	Ⅱ
A₂	-0.023 4	0.016 0		-0.008 8		-0.032 3		-0.044 0	Ⅱ	C₁₁		0.050 0		-0.050 0		-0.525 0		-0.683 3	-0.762 5	Ⅰ
B₁	-0.017 8	0.011 3		-0.004 0		-0.022 7		-0.031 4	Ⅱ	C₁₂		0.020 0		-0.020 0		-0.510 0		-0.673 3	-0.755 0	Ⅰ
B₂	-0.019 0	0.011 9		-0.006 0		-0.024 5		-0.033 7	Ⅱ	C₁₃		-0.338 7		-0.023 8		0.050 0		-0.316 7	-0.487 5	Ⅲ
B₃	-0.034 5	0.016 8		-0.007 9		-0.040 9		-0.058 0	Ⅱ	C₁₄		-0.321 4		0.100 0		-0.050 0		-0.366 7	-0.525 0	Ⅱ
B₄	-0.011 7	0.012 0		-0.006 0		-0.017 4		-0.023 1	Ⅱ	C₁₅		-0.352 9		-0.083 3		0.200 0		-0.266 7	-0.450 0	Ⅲ
C₁	-0.009 6	0.001 3		-0.015 4		-0.033 2		-0.041 4	Ⅱ	C₂₁		-0.321 4		0.100 0		-0.050 0		-0.366 7	-0.525 0	Ⅱ
C₂	-0.016 4	0.006 5		-0.003 3		-0.019 3		-0.027 4	Ⅱ	C₂₂		-0.307 7		0.200 0		-0.100 0		-0.400 0	-0.550 0	Ⅱ
C₃	-0.019 1	0.007 3		0.002 2		-0.021 2		-0.030 6	Ⅱ	C₂₃		-0.327 6		0.050 0		-0.025 0		-0.350 0	-0.512 5	Ⅱ
D₁	-0.013 3	0.003 3		-0.000 4		-0.014 1		-0.020 8	Ⅱ	C₃₁		-0.262 0		0.450 0		-0.225 0		-0.483 3	-0.612 5	Ⅱ
D₂	-0.016 4	0.008 8		-0.004 4		-0.020 4		-0.028 3	Ⅱ	C₃₂		-0.352 9		-0.083 3		0.200 0		-0.266 7	-0.450 0	Ⅲ
D₃	-0.020 0	0.005 5		-0.002 2		-0.022 4		-0.032 3	Ⅱ	C₃₃		-0.307 7		0.200 0		-0.100 0		-0.400 0	-0.550 0	Ⅱ
D₄	-0.017 5	0.006 8		-0.002 4		-0.019 0		-0.027 8	Ⅱ	C₃₄		-0.361 1		-0.115 4		0.300 0		-0.253 3	-0.425 0	Ⅲ
E₁	-0.019 2	0.018 5		-0.013 0		-0.034 2		-0.044 2	Ⅱ	D₁₁		-0.307 7		0.200 0		-0.100 0		-0.400 0	-0.550 0	Ⅱ
E₂	-0.022 8	0.001 2		0.007 5		-0.020 8		-0.032 4	Ⅱ	D₁₂		-0.348 5		-0.065 2		0.100 0		-0.283 3	-0.462 5	Ⅲ
F₁	-0.011 5	0.007 5		-0.003 7		-0.015 0		-0.020 5	Ⅱ	D₂₁		-0.307 7		0.200 0		-0.100 0		-0.400 0	-0.550 0	Ⅱ
F₂	-0.010 9	0.008 2		-0.004 1		-0.014 8		-0.020 1	Ⅱ	D₂₂		-0.314 8		0.150 0		-0.075 0		-0.383 3	-0.537 5	Ⅱ
A₁₁	0.090 0	-0.090 0		-0.545 0		-0.696 7		-0.772 5	Ⅰ	D₂₃		-0.314 8		0.150 0		-0.075 0		-0.383 3	-0.537 5	Ⅱ
A₁₂	-0.231 2	0.430 0		-0.285 0		-0.523 3		-0.642 5	Ⅱ	D₃₁		-0.318 8		0.120 0		-0.060 0		-0.373 3	-0.530 0	Ⅱ
A₂₁	-0.234 0	0.440 0		-0.280 0		-0.520 0		-0.640 0	Ⅱ	D₃₂		-0.327 6		0.050 0		-0.025 0		-0.350 0	-0.512 5	Ⅱ
A₂₂	-0.327 6	0.050 0		-0.025 0		-0.350 0		-0.512 5	Ⅱ	D₃₃		-0.300 0		0.250 0		-0.125 0		-0.416 7	-0.562 5	Ⅱ
A₂₃	-0.300 0	0.250 0		-0.125 0		-0.416 7		-0.562 5	Ⅱ	D₃₄		-0.338 7		-0.023 8		0.050 0		-0.316 7	-0.487 5	Ⅲ
A₂₄	-0.300 0	0.250 0		-0.125 0		-0.416 7		-0.562 5	Ⅱ	D₄₁		-0.291 7		0.300 0		-0.150 0		-0.433 3	-0.575 0	Ⅱ
A₂₅	-0.325 2	0.070 0		-0.035 0		-0.356 7		-0.517 5	Ⅱ	D₄₂		-0.364 8		-0.129 6		0.350 0		-0.216 7	-0.412 5	Ⅲ
A₂₆	-0.338 7	-0.023 8		0.050 0		-0.316 7		-0.487 5	Ⅲ	D₄₃		-0.300 0		0.250 0		-0.125 0		-0.416 7	-0.562 5	Ⅱ
B₁₁	-0.282 6	0.350 0		-0.175 0		-0.450 0		-0.587 5	Ⅱ	E₁₁		-0.166 7		0.250 0		-0.375 0		-0.583 3	-0.687 5	Ⅱ
B₁₂	-0.312 0	0.170 0		-0.085 0		-0.390 0		-0.542 5	Ⅱ	E₁₂		-0.346 6		-0.058 3		0.130 0		-0.290 0	-0.467 5	Ⅲ
B₁₃	-0.300 0	0.250 0		-0.125 0		-0.416 7		-0.562 5	Ⅱ	E₁₃		-0.278 8		0.370 0		-0.185 0		-0.456 7	-0.592 5	Ⅱ
B₁₄	-0.352 9	-0.083 3		0.200 0		-0.266 7		-0.450 0	Ⅲ	E₁₄		-0.250 0		0.500 0		-0.250 0		-0.500 0	-0.625 0	Ⅱ
B₂₁	-0.307 7	0.200 0		-0.100 0		-0.400 0		-0.550 0	Ⅱ	E₁₅		-0.262 0		0.450 0		-0.225 0		-0.483 3	-0.612 5	Ⅱ
B₂₂	-0.314 8	0.150 0		-0.075 0		-0.383 3		-0.537 5	Ⅱ	E₁₆		-0.314 8		0.150 0		-0.075 0		-0.383 3	-0.537 5	Ⅱ
B₂₃	-0.307 7	0.200 0		-0.100 0		-0.400 0		-0.550 0	Ⅱ	E₂₁		-0.314 8		0.150 0		-0.075 0		-0.383 3	-0.537 5	Ⅱ
B₂₄	-0.300 0	0.250 0		-0.125 0		-0.416 7		-0.562 5	Ⅱ	E₂₂		-0.371 8		-0.155 2		0.450 0		-0.183 3	-0.387 5	Ⅲ
B₃₁	-0.282 6	0.350 0	-0.175 0		-0.450 0		-0.587 5		Ⅱ	E₂₃	-0.352 9		-0.083 3		0.200 0		-0.266 7		-0.450 0	Ⅲ
B₃₂	-0.327 6	0.050 0	-0.025 0		-0.350 0		-0.512 5		Ⅱ	E₂₄	-0.321 4		0.100 0		-0.050 0		-0.366 7		-0.525 0	Ⅱ
B₃₃	-0.327 6	0.050 0	-0.025 0		-0.350 0		-0.512 5		Ⅱ	F₁₁	-0.307 7		0.200 0		-0.100 0		-0.400 0		-0.550 0	Ⅱ
B₃₄	-0.307 7	0.200 0	-0.100 0		-0.400 0		-0.550 0		Ⅱ	F₁₂	-0.307 7		0.200 0		-0.100 0		-0.400 0		-0.550 0	Ⅱ
B₃₅	-0.307 7	0.200 0	-0.100 0		-0.400 0		-0.550 0		Ⅱ	F₂₁	-0.291 7		0.300 0		-0.150 0		-0.433 3		-0.575 0	Ⅱ
B₃₆	-0.282 6	0.350 0	-0.175 0		-0.450 0		-0.587 5		Ⅱ	F₂₂	-0.314 8		0.150 0		-0.075 0		-0.383 3		-0.537 5	Ⅱ

表4

图3

表5

三级指标云数字特征计算结果

三级指标	E_x	E_n	H_e
A₁₁	90.9	3.6346	0.8169
A₁₂	85.7	4.3114	1.2108
$︙$	$︙$	$︙$	$︙$
F₂₁	83.0	3.5093	0.3047
F₂₂	81.5	3.5093	0.9624

表5

表6

图4

图5

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关联度K_j(C_i)	评价结果
0 < K_j(C_i) < 1	符合第j等级
-1 ≤ K_j(C_i) ≤ 0	不符合第j等级,但可以向其转化
K_j(C_i) < -1	不符合第j等级,且不可转化

指标	E_x	E_n	H_e
A	83.487 5	5.096 4	0.487 8
B	81.161 9	4.610 5	0.270 0
C	82.016 7	5.096 5	0.466 2
D	80.933 3	5.081 5	0.382 6
E	81.69	5.426 7	0.458 8
F	82.125	3.636 8	0.550 5
A₁	88.3	2.819 5	0.730 3
A₂	81.883 3	2.211 0	0.603 1
B₁	81.425	2.150 6	0.509 0
B₂	82	2.515 2	0.553 7
B₃	80.427 3	1.376 4	0.423 9
B₄	83	3.237 5	0.585 0
C₁	83.84	2.236 7	0.604 6
C₂	81.166 7	3.046 0	0.537 0
C₃	80.375	2.538 7	1.007 0
D₁	80.25	3.195 3	0.375 1
D₂	81.666 7	2.872 6	0.452 0
D₃	80.925	2.825 0	0.984 5
D₄	80.666 7	2.729 6	0.593 3
E₁	83.483 3	2.309 9	0.671 3
E₂	79	2.530 0	0.549 4
F₁	82	2.658 7	0.978 5
F₂	82.25	2.481 4	0.504 7