高速公路团雾区驾驶特性分析与碰撞风险评价

doi:10.16265/j.cnki.issn1003-3033.2025.05.1534

中国安全科学学报 ›› 2025, Vol. 35 ›› Issue (5): 124-134.doi: 10.16265/j.cnki.issn1003-3033.2025.05.1534

高速公路团雾区驾驶特性分析与碰撞风险评价

吴付威¹^,²(), 李育隆¹, 马勇²^,^**(), 王畅¹^,², 张智³

¹ 长安大学汽车学院,陕西西安 710018
² 长安大学汽车运输安全保障技术交通运输行业重点实验室,陕西西安,710018
³ 空军工程大学航空工程学院,陕西西安 710086

收稿日期:2025-01-09 修回日期:2025-03-10 出版日期:2025-05-28
通信作者:
^** 马勇(1980—),男,新疆玛纳斯人,博士,编审,主要从事驾驶行为特性和人-车-路系统安全研究。E-mail:mayong@chd.edu.cn。

作者简介:

吴付威 (1986—),男,山东临沂人,博士,高级工程师,主要从事人—车—路系统安全、道路交通运行风险防控理论、智能辅助驾驶等方面的研究。E-mail:wufuwei@chd.edu.cn。

吴付威, 高级工程师

马勇, 编审

王畅, 教授

张智, 讲师

基金资助:
陕西省自然科学基础研究计划项目(2023-JC-QN-0516); 中央高校基本科研业务费资助(300102224501); 中央高校基本科研业务费资助(300102224302)

Driving characteristics analysis and collision risk evaluation in expressway agglomerate fog areas

WU Fuwei¹^,²(), LI Yulong¹, MA Yong²^,^**(), WANG Chang¹^,², ZHANG Zhi³

¹ School of Automobile, Chang'an University, Xi'an Shaanxi 710018,China
² Key Laboratory of Transportation Industry of Automotive Transportation Safety Enhancement Technology (Chang'an University), Xi'an Shaanxi 710018,China
³ Aviation Engineering School, Air Force Engineering University, Xi'an Shaanxi 710018,China

Received:2025-01-09 Revised:2025-03-10 Published:2025-05-28

摘要/Abstract

摘要： 为降低高速公路团雾环境下的交通事故风险,将高速公路团雾区划分为过渡区和冲突区,设计并开展驾驶模拟试验。首先,采用方差分析(ANOVA)、非参数检验等方法分析驾驶人在2个区域中的驾驶行为;然后,利用Pearson相关性分析探索过渡区与冲突区之间的驾驶行为指标关联特性;最后,通过二元Logistics回归模型挖掘驾驶行为对碰撞风险的影响机制。结果表明:在过渡区,驾驶经验与能见度变化率对速度标准差和内边界速度有显著影响;相比于新手驾驶人,熟练驾驶人速度标准差降低36.8%,内边界速度高13.5%;能见度变化率对速度标准差和内边界速度有统计学差异,不同能见度变化率对应的内边界速度和速度标准差不同。在冲突区,碰撞时间(TTC)与能见度呈显著正相关,避险反应时间与能见度呈显著负相关;TTC、避险反应时间及碰撞率均与冲突距离呈显著负相关;过渡区速度调整行为会显著影响冲突区的碰撞风险。

关键词: 高速公路, 团雾, 驾驶模拟, 驾驶行为, 碰撞风险

Abstract:

In order to reduce the risk of traffic accidents in expressway agglomerate fog environment, the expressway agglomerate fog zone was divided into transition zone and conflict zone, and driving simulation tests were designed and carried out. Firstly, Analysis of Variance(ANOVA)and non-parametric tests were used to analyze the driving behavior in the two zones. Then, Pearson correlation analysis was used to explore the correlation characteristics of the driving behavior indicators between transition zone and conflict zone. Finally, a binary logistic regression model was used to explore the mechanism of the influence of driving behavior on the collision risk. The study shows that: in transition zone, driving experience and visibility change rate have a significant effect on speed standard deviation and inner boundary speed. Compared with novice drivers, experienced drivers have 36.8% lower speed standard deviation and 13.5% higher inner boundary speed. Visibility change rate has a statistically significant difference on speed standard deviation and inner boundary speed. Different visibility change rates correspond to different inner boundary speed and speed standard deviation. In conflict zone, time to collision (TTC) was significantly positively correlated with visibility, and reaction time was significantly negatively correlated with visibility. TTC, reaction time and collision rate were all significantly negatively correlated with the conflict distance. The speed adjustment behavior in the transition zone significantly affects collision risk in conflict zone.

Key words: expressway, agglomerate fog, driving simulation, driving behavior, collision risk

中图分类号:

X951交通运输安全

吴付威, 李育隆, 马勇, 王畅, 张智. 高速公路团雾区驾驶特性分析与碰撞风险评价[J]. 中国安全科学学报, 2025, 35(5): 124-134.

WU Fuwei, LI Yulong, MA Yong, WANG Chang, ZHANG Zhi. Driving characteristics analysis and collision risk evaluation in expressway agglomerate fog areas[J]. China Safety Science Journal, 2025, 35(5): 124-134.

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类别	性别		平均驾驶里程/km
类别	男性	女性	平均驾驶里程/km
熟练驾驶人	9	4	60 769
新手驾驶人	14	8	16 136

变量	自由度	H	p
性别	1	0.909	0.340
驾驶经验	1	1.095	0.047^*
性别×驾驶经验	3	0.981	0.612
能见度变化率	2	3.943	0.036^*

变量	自由度	F	p
性别	1	4.227	0.042^*
驾驶经验	1	1.017	0.315
性别×驾驶经验	3	2.261	0.415
能见度变化率	2	0.032	0.038^*

变量	自由度	F	p
性别	1	0.959	0.329
驾驶经验	1	1.744	0.009^*
性别×驾驶经验	3	1.224	0.089
能见度变化率	2	13.839	<0.001^*

变量	类别	TTC
变量	类别	平均值/s	标准差/s
性别	男	3.19	1.82
性别	女	2.84	1.72
驾驶经验	熟练	3.38	1.99
驾驶经验	新手	2.84	1.61
能见度	20	2.55	1.59
	50	2.51	1.24
	200	4.09	1.99
冲突距离	100	2.37	1.28
冲突距离	200	3.74	1.96
能见度× 冲突距离	20×100	1.71	1.09
	50×100	2.02	0.80
	200×100	3.37	1.26
	20×200	3.39	1.59
	50×200	3.00	1.42
	200×200	4.81	2.33

高速公路团雾区驾驶特性分析与碰撞风险评价

Driving characteristics analysis and collision risk evaluation in expressway agglomerate fog areas

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变量	自由度	F	p
性别	1	1.389	0.240
驾驶经验	1	3.370	0.068
能见度	2	17.003	<0.001^*
冲突距离	1	19.019	<0.001^*
能见度×冲突距离	5	13.794	<0.001^*

变量	检验方法	p
能见度	LSD	—	20	50	200	—	—	—
		20	—	0.907	<0.001^*	—	—	—
		50	—	—	<0.001^*	—	—	—
能见度× 冲突距离	LSD	—	20×100	50×100	200×100	20×200	50×200	200×200
		20×100	—	0.462	<0.001^*	<0.001^*	0.003^*	<0.001^*
		50×100	—	—	0.002^*	0.001^*	0.022^*	<0.001^*
		200×100	—	—	—	0.956	0.388	0.001^*
		20×200	—	—	—	—	0.359	0.001^*
		50×200	—	—	—	—	—	<0.001^*

变量	分类	避险反应时间/s		F	p
变量	分类	平均值	标准差	F	p
性别	男	1.77	0.86	1.335	0.898
性别	女	1.80	0.62	1.335	0.898
驾驶经验	熟练	1.89	1.13	1.427	0.092
驾驶经验	新手	1.93	0.91	1.427	0.092
冲突距离/m	100	1.96	1.50	6.616	0.032^*
冲突距离/m	200	1.73	1.56	6.616	0.032^*
能见度/m	20	2.15	0.98	10.204	<0.001^*
	50	1.81	1.05
	100	1.64	0.64

变量	分类	碰撞率/%
能见度/m	20	85.7
	50	71.4
	100	25.7
冲突距离/m	100	57.1
冲突距离/m	200	18.1
性别	男	55.6
性别	女	48.6
驾驶经验	熟练	44.6
驾驶经验	新手	67.7

变量	卡方检验
变量	自由度	χ²	p	Ф
性别	1	3.383	0.066	3.361
驾驶经验	1	3.971	0.046^*	3.944
能见度	2	3.043	<0.001^*	2.761
冲突距离	1	12.231	0.008^*	0.825

变量	系数	TTC/s	碰撞率	反应时间/s
速度标准差	R	0.391	-0.264	0.225
速度标准差	p	<0.001^*	0.001^*	0.821
内边界速度	R	-0.460	0.324	0.761
内边界速度	p	<0.001^*	<0.001^*	<0.001^*
SDLP	R	-0.059	0.082	0.190
SDLP	p	0.475	0.316	0.488

变量		B		S.E	Wald	Sig.	exp B		exp B 95%置信区间
变量		B		S.E	Wald	Sig.	exp B		下限		上限
速度标准差		0.059		0.273	0.046	0.830	1.061		0.621		1.811
SDLP		4.377		2.542	2.966	0.085	79.629		0.546		11 606.117
TTC		-2.105		0.409	26.446	0.000	0.122		0.055		0.272
变量	B		S.E		Wald	Sig.		exp B		exp B 95%置信区间
变量	B		S.E		Wald	Sig.		exp B		下限		上限
内边界速度	0.042		0.056		0.569	0.031		1.043		0.935		1.165
反应时间	2.235		0.317		0.831	0.000		0.158		0.124		1.577
常量	-0.392		5.177		0.013	0.009		0.553		—		—

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