关键词: 山区高速公路, 交通事故, 风险因素, 多维度耦合, 耦合度模型, 集成决策实验法-对抗解释结构模型(DEMATEL-AISM)

Abstract:

In order to effectively reduce the accident rate of mountain highways, the traffic accident data of mountain highways in Yunnan province from 2016 to 2021 was taken as the research object, based on the DEMATEL-AISM. This paper analyzes the causality of risk factors and draws the UP and DOWN directed topological hierarchical diagrams, and finally determines 19 risk factors, constructs an N-K-coupling degree model to quantify the risk factors, couples the risk factors of mountain highway traffic accidents in all dimensions, explores the relationship between risk factors, and proposes a full-dimensional coupling model of traffic accidents in mountainous areas. The results show that in the single dimension, the coupling value of human factors being too close to the vehicle and fatigue driving is 0.741, and the coupling value of road factors is 0.816, which are the two effects that have a greater impact on the system in the single dimension, and the coupling values of human-vehicle and human-road are 0.157 and 0.124 in the two-dimensional. The maximum effect of human factors is human-road-ring in multi-dimensional, with a coupling value of 0.891, in which the driver's bad driving behavior, the sharp bend of the road and the long downhill, and the rain, fog, and ice and snow days of the environment are easy to be coupled with other factors more than 70%, which constitutes a strong coupling relationship and the probability of traffic accidents is large.

Key words: mountain highways, traffic accidents, risk factors, multi-dimensional coupling, coupling degree model, decision experimental method-adversarial interpretative structural model (DEMATEL-AISM)