考虑乡镇集市影响的穿村镇公路事故风险因素辨识

doi:10.16265/j.cnki.issn1003-3033.2024.05.1435

摘要/Abstract

摘要：

为了改善乡镇集市与穿村镇公路耦合区域的交通安全,以云南省某二级公路穿村镇路段为研究对象,依据乡镇居民可承受出行距离与集市最大交易半径,界定集市核心区与集市辐射区,选取人、车、路、环境、管理及事故形态6个维度的29个风险因素,采用基于关联规则的风险因素辨识模型构建穿村镇公路事故风险因素网络,分析网络拓扑结构特征获取事故关键风险因素。结果表明:集日穿村镇公路事故时空集聚特征显著,且集市核心区交通冲突更为严重,伤人事故概率为57.99%,是事故的主要风险因素,对事故风险传播具有主导作用;直穿村镇路段交通标志缺失与缓坡路段会车不当分别是财产损失事故与伤人事故的直接风险因素;整体上,驾驶员因素平均聚类系数最大,易产生连锁反应,在集市核心区涉及驾驶员会车不当和未按规定让行时,伤人事故概率分别增加23.71%和21.07%。

关键词: 穿村镇公路事故, 乡镇集市, 集市影响范围, 风险因素, 辨识模型

Abstract:

In order to improve traffic safety in the coupling area of the township fair and through-village highway, a secondary road through villages and towns in Yunnan Province was taken as the research object. The core area and the radiation area of the fair were defined according to the affordable travel distance of the township residents and the maximum trading radius of the fair. On this basis, 29 risk factors in 6 dimensions of people, vehicles, roads, environment, management and accident form were selected. The risk factor identification model based on association rules was used to construct the risk factor network of highway accidents through villages and towns. By analyzing the characteristics of network topology, accident risk factors were identified. The results show that the traffic conflict in the core area of the fair is more serious, and the probability of injury accidents is 57.99 %. The core area of the township fair is the primary risk factor for accidents and plays a leading role in the spread of accident risks. The types of direct risk factors for property loss accidents and injury accidents are heterogeneous. Overall, the average clustering coefficient of driver factors is the largest, which makes it easy to produce a chain reaction. In the core area of the fair, the probability of injury accidents increases by 23.71% and 21.07%, respectively, when the driver's meeting vehicles are improper, and the driver does not give way according to the regulations.

Key words: through-village highway accident, township fairs, influence scope of fairs, risk factors, identification model

中图分类号:

X951交通运输安全

戢晓峰, 李金, 卢梦媛, 韩春阳, 覃文文. 考虑乡镇集市影响的穿村镇公路事故风险因素辨识[J]. 中国安全科学学报, 2024, 34(5): 214-222.

JI Xiaofeng, LI Jin, LU Mengyuan, HAN Chunyang, QIN Wenwen. Identification of risk factors for through-village highway accidents considering influence of township fairs[J]. China Safety Science Journal, 2024, 34(5): 214-222.

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乡镇	集市日期	集市中心	集市最大交易半径/km
共和镇	周二、周四、周六	新南路与南大街交叉口	15(山区镇级集市)
戌街乡	周二、周五	戌街线与019 乡道交叉口	5(山区乡级集市)
元马镇	周四、周日	翠芸街与凤翔街交叉口	15(山区镇级集市)

事故严重程度	编号	划分标准	事故占比/%
财产损失事故	S1	仅有财产损失,死亡人数和受伤人数均为 0	44.53
伤人事故	S2	死亡人数为0且受伤人数≥1	55.47

风险因素分类		风险因素名称	风险因素编号	风险因素占比/%	风险因素解释
驾驶员因素D		会车不当	D1	20.65	驾驶员操作不当
		超车不当	D2	8.91	驾驶员操作不当
		未按规定让行	D3	20.24	驾驶员安全意识淡薄
		未按规定车道行驶	D4	18.22
		未保持安全距离	D5	31.98
车辆因素V	肇事车辆信息	客车	V1	61.13	肇事车辆的车辆类型以及车辆归属地
		摩托车	V2	23.49
		货车	V3	15.38
		本地车辆	V4	79.35
		过境车辆	V5	20.65
	涉事车辆信息	无防护车辆	V6	54.66	事故中是否有无防护车辆参与 (电动车、三轮车、自行车等)
道路因素R	平面线形	平直道	R1	30.25	(平曲线半径为0且平曲线长度为0)
		小半径急弯/m	R2	23.57	(125<平曲线半径≤550 且0<平曲线长度≤500)
		普通弯道/m	R3	18.79	(550<平曲线半径≤3 300且 500<平曲线长度≤1 000)
	纵断面线形	缓坡/%	R4	22.61	0.5<坡度≤3
	纵断面线形	陡坡/%	R5	4.78	3<坡度≤6
环境因素E	事发时间信息	(0:00,6:00]	E1	1.62	事故发生的具体时段
		(6:00,12:00]	E2	28.34
		(12:00,18:00]	E3	46.96
		(18:00,24:00]	E4	23.08
	事发空间信息	直穿村镇路段	E5	49.78	公路从村镇中直接穿过
		绕行村镇路段	E6	50.22	公路到村镇的距离为10~184 m
		集市核心区	E7	77.73	事发地距镇级集市中心5 km以内或乡级集市中心2 km以内
		集市辐射区	E8	22.27	事发地距镇级集市中心5~15 km或乡级集市中心2~5 km
管理因素M		交通标志缺失	M1	25.51	无明显交通标线与警告标志
管理因素M		安全监管不足	M2	16.59	无监控设施,存在路侧摆摊、停车占道等横向干扰
事故形态A		碰撞	A1	68.02	事故发生后的最终形态
		追尾	A2	21.86
		刮擦行人	A3	10.12

排名	前项	后项	支持度	置信度	提升度
1	R3,E5	E8	0.14	0.57	5.04
2	R3,S1	E8	0.13	0.45	3.98
3	M1	E8	0.11	0.82	3.22
4	D5	A2	0.32	0.68	3.09
5	D3,S2	V2	0.14	0.47	2.19

编号	前项	后项	支持度	置信度	提升度
1	E8	S1	0.11	0.64	1.44
2	E7	S2	0.89	0.58	1.05
3	E7,D1	S2	0.19	0.72	1.29
4	E7,D3	S2	0.19	0.70	1.27