中国安全科学学报 ›› 2020, Vol. 30 ›› Issue (S1): 165-171.doi: 10.16265/j.cnki.issn1003-3033.2020.S1.029

• 公共安全 • 上一篇    下一篇

F-ANP法在高速铁路风险评估中的应用

魏圆圆1, 左忠义**1 教授, 程伟2 高级工程师, 孟子悦3   

  1. 1 大连交通大学 交通运输工程学院, 辽宁 大连 116028;
    2 国家铁路局 安全技术中心, 北京 100036;
    3 沈阳市规划设计院有限公司, 辽宁 沈阳 110000
  • 收稿日期:2020-10-16 修回日期:2020-12-09 出版日期:2020-10-30 发布日期:2021-07-15
  • 通讯作者: ** 左忠义(1973—),男,辽宁大连人,博士,教授,主要从事交通运输规划与管理等方面的研究。E-mail: zuozy@djtu.edu.cn。
  • 作者简介:魏圆圆 (1996—),女,辽宁沈阳人,硕士研究生,主要研究方向为交通运输规划与管理。E-mial:1914227486@qq.com。
  • 基金资助:
    辽宁省教育厅科研项目(JDL2017034); 辽宁省轨道交通装备技术项目(2018yb016)。

Application of F-ANP method in risk assessment of high-speed railway

WEI Yuanyuan1, ZUO Zhongyi1, CHENG Wei2, MENG Ziyue3   

  1. 1 College of Transportation Engineering, Dalian Jiaotong University, Dalian Liaoning 116028, China;
    2 Safety Technology Center,National Railway Administration, Beijing 100036, China;
    3 Shenyang Planning & Design Institute Co., Ltd, Shenyang Liaoning 110000, China
  • Received:2020-10-16 Revised:2020-12-09 Online:2020-10-30 Published:2021-07-15

摘要: 为降低高速铁路风险带来的安全隐患,利用模糊网络分析法(F-ANP),评估高铁安全风险等级。通过从高铁建设运营的管理、人员、设备和环境4个方面进行统计分析,构建适用于高铁风险的指标体系;采用F-ANP法定性与定量相结合确定指标层中非独立风险因子权重及其相互之间的复杂关系;基于相关领域专家评价意见和结果建立综合模糊矩阵,评估高铁风险等级。研究表明:结合专家意见和网络分析可以相对全面、准确地量化高铁建设运营中的复杂风险因素,构建用于评估高铁风险等级的模型方法,从而进行安全预警以及决定是否采取相关保障措施。

关键词: 模糊网络分析法(F-ANP), 高速铁路, 风险评估, 综合模糊矩阵, 风险因素

Abstract: In order to reduce the risk of high-speed rail safety risks, F-ANP was used to evaluate the safety risk level of high-speed railway.Through statistical analysis from the management, personnel, equipment and environment of high-speed railway construction and operation, the index system suitable for high-speed railway risk was constructed,F-ANP method was used to determine the weight of non-independent risk factors in the index layer and the complex relationship between them. Based on the evaluation opinions and results of experts in related fields, a comprehensive fuzzy matrix was established to evaluate the risk level of high-speed railway.The results show that combined with expert opinions and network analysis, the complex risk factors in the construction and operation process of high-speed railway can be quantified relatively comprehensively and accurately, and the model method used to evaluate the risk level of high-speed railway can be built, so as to carry out safety warning and whether to take relevant safeguard measures.

Key words: fuzzy-analytic network process(F-ANP), high speed railway, risk assessment, synthetic fuzzy matrix, risk factors

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